40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 We are still only like 55% through the month, too...don't forget that. We have just seen how quickly things change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The amount of anger and fighting in here is palpable . This winter is over Beer is a good thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: We are still only like 55% through the month, too...don't forget that. We have just seen how quickly things change. Yea some spiking going on Fer surah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I disagree. This month would have been better with PNA. I thought you said that wasn't a factor for your region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What I mean is that this has been RNA, but not record levels like last year...I expected some front end/SWFE type stuff despite the RNA, but it hasn't worked out for the coast and some spots just inland. But a PNA would have allowed the cold to dump further east. Is that really that complicated? Well yeah a better PNA makes any winter better. What’s the relevance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Beer is a good thing? I have a sick , awful , terrible gut feeling about this winter. I hope you guys are right 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The amount of anger and fighting in here is palpable . This winter is over Beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 If we are saying second half of month delivers than ok. I respect that. I’m hoping for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Winter wild wolf disappeared days ago . That tells you all you need to know. Listen closely and the pitter patter of rats claws congregating enmasse can be heard on hardwood floors throughout the region. Are they released to pounce or are they caught by the winter exterminator. We should know by Jan 1 He's in training. He's busting out so many push-ups pull-ups etc he can't post here. It's cuffing season. Him and cpickles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Winter wild wolf disappeared days ago . That tells you all you need to know. Listen closely and the pitter patter of rats claws congregating enmasse can be heard on hardwood floors throughout the region. Are they released to pounce or are they caught by the winter exterminator. We should know by Jan 1 If Will checks out for a while then you really know…… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I have a sick , awful , terrible gut feeling about this winter. I hope you guys are right January is a concern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: I thought you said that wasn't a factor for your region. On average, one of our better patterns is -NAO/RNA, but I think the PV sliding out west as porked us. I don't think that that would have happened in a positive PNA month...or less likely, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: January is a concern. We can't forecast three days in advance, and we're worried about January. F it 6 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well yeah a better PNA makes any winter better. What’s the relevance? Because RNA increases the changes of an interior pattern, even though the upside is high if things break right. This month they haven't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: On average, one of our better patterns is -NAO/RNA, but I think the PV sliding out west as porked us. I don't think that that would have happened in a positive PNA month...or less likely, anyway. I see. Sounds like more bad luck then. I gotta check raindancewx again. He might be on the money again though I'm pretty sure he had a warm December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 minute ago, TalcottWx said: We can't forecast three days in advance, and we're worried about January. F it Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: January is a concern. Agreed. The rest of this month and the first two weeks now as modeled are lost. So we lost all of December other than a light snowfall in SNE and one biggie in CNE and NNE and first half of Jan . I am just struggling trying to see any good coming out of the next month. Maybe some rogue event pops up timed right.. but as of now.. this is as ugly as we have seen in quite some time 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: I see. Sounds like more bad luck then. I gotta check raindancewx again. He might be on the money again though I'm pretty sure he had a warm December That the coast has been totally shut out, yes. At the end of the day, there is always some hedging and glorified guess work at play with issuing these outlooks. Even if you get the pattern right, there is always some educated guess work about how it all plays out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Because RNA increases the changes of an interior pattern, even though the upside is high if things break right. This month they haven't. And I agree, I never bought into a block buster. But I think generalizing your outlook to explain why it’s sucked in many areas….there’s just more to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: And I agree, I never bought into a block buster. But I think generalizing your outlook to explain why it’s sucked in many areas….there’s just more to it. Of course there is more to it....the crap like the ridge being displaced to the west is luck. I didn't predict that. But its not luck that the cold has been out west and the interior has done better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Let’s say ORH and Methuen get 2” from now to end of year. Hypothetically speaking. I don’t think many outlooks had that part of the interior so stinky for snow. This is what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Agreed. The rest of this month and the first two weeks now as modeled are lost. So we lost all of December other than a light snowfall in SNE and one biggie in CNE and NNE and first half of Jan . I am just struggling trying to see any good coming out of the next month. Maybe some rogue event pops up timed right.. but as of now.. this is as ugly as we have seen in quite some time Where are the first two weeks modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Let’s say ORH and Methuen get 2” from now to end of year. Hypothetically speaking. I don’t think many outlooks had that part of the interior so stinky for snow. This is what I mean. You can't get that specific...no one does. That is fluky shit ORH through my area has been porked. But I have generally had the pattern right, which is all I hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: You can't get that specific...no one does. That is fluky shit ORH through my area has been porked. But I have generally had the pattern right, which is all I hope for. So I got the impression you were more hopeful for interior SNE. I’m well aware of nuances. But I took your outlook as more favorable for interior SNE. Am I the only one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I have a sick , awful , terrible gut feeling about this winter. I hope you guys are right Well the only good thing about that statement is that it’s not winter yet and the models have no idea what will happen more than 7 days out so we have that going for us. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Anyone else want to make fun of the coldest nation wide Christmas since 83 declaration? The trolls did Is Green Bay at home? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: January is a concern. I’m not holding my breath. Let the chips fall where they may 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 I mean people throwing around “vibes” of Feb 2013….how is that not weenie trolling? The exact opposite of the trolling many think about. Nothing said Feb 2013 except for some “enhanced” cookies. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I see. Sounds like more bad luck then. I gotta check raindancewx again. He might be on the money again though I'm pretty sure he had a warm December He had a +NAO December, so there is that...glad that I didn't copy him, like he accused me of. Otherwise, he has had the right idea....we were both RNA December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m not holding my breath. Let the chips fall where they may I don’t have a bad feeling, just a concern it goes to a -PNA and lose -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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