December 2022 Obs/Disc

[forkyfork]

i like elite storms. the pattern coming up has a greater chance of producing one than most others

[weathafella]

A big qpf event would be fun.  I don’t really care if it’s rain.   

[kdxken]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

A big qpf event would be fun.  I don’t really care if it’s rain.   

It's not going to snow  suppress it. Rain blows...

[WxWatcher007]

15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

A big qpf event would be fun.  I don’t really care if it’s rain.   

We’ve done enough of those around Christmas 

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We’ve done enough of those around Christmas 

I actually meant that for tomorrow’s event-sorry.  Next week I’ll take snow.

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I actually meant that for tomorrow’s event-sorry.  Next week I’ll take snow.

Ok..thanks for clarifying. I was like Jerry must be losing it, if he’d rather have rain than snow next week. 

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ok..thanks for clarifying. I was like Jerry must be losing it, if he’d rather have rain than snow next week. 

Me too lol

[Typhoon Tip]

That ICON model is about to explode something truly exotic at the end of this run.  Some of the most powerful mid level jet max velocities associated with that torpedoing mid west wave I can recall in years.  

Heh. If it weren’t for the fact that it’s now plugging into the 20-24th aspect I say it’s just being strange. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ok..thanks for clarifying. I was like Jerry must be losing it, if he’d rather have rain than snow next week. 

Crown Royal.

[Typhoon Tip]

The key difference there is noticed the western ridges come inland now it makes a big difference in the spatial forcing. 

So it’s moving south underneath the western end of that sub polar vortex and it’s enticing it to come south. that’s about to set up a subsume phase. It reminds me of some of those 1970s winters. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That ICON model is about to explode something truly exotic at the end of this run.  Some of the most powerful mid level jet max velocities associated with that torpedoing mid west wave I can recall in years.  

Heh. If it weren’t for the fact that it’s now plugging into the 20-24th aspect I say it’s just being strange. 

Looks like a triple phasing dong.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Looks like a triple phasing don

I joke but isn’t it depicting a triple phase? I see sj, nj, and a piece of the pv dropping in. 

[dmillz25]

Looks like a ku coming in on the gfs from what I see 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I joke but isn’t it depicting a triple phase? I see sj, nj, and a piece of the pv dropping in. 

Looks like two.  Pack S/w subsumed by an inevitable N stream/spv segment. 

storm enthusiast probably don’t want triple Stream phasers even though it sounds cool to say that ha ha but seriously triple stream phasers tend to require full latitude, which means they’re happening at planetary scales …which means they’re moving really fast. Two stream phase have better mechanics for slow down/ install and do retrograde etc, pounding winter weather for many hours

[Typhoon Tip]

I only got it through 186 so far but it is bringing better western bridge expression in. And it does look similar to the icon type of scenario with a very strong pacific jet diving into the Mississippi Valley and the western end of that subpolar vortexes vulnerable to collapsing south …that is a dire scenario if that happens.

[Typhoon Tip]

Might still be breaking early.  

Interesting trends tho. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Close. Nuke potential and nobody wants it overhead at this lead time, keep it there for another few days.

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I only got it through 186 so far but it is bringing better western bridge expression in. And it does look similar to the icon type of scenario with a very strong pacific jet diving into the Mississippi Valley and the western end of that subpolar vortexes vulnerable to collapsing south …that is a dire scenario if that happens.

Why is it Dire…don’t we want dire? Let it storm/snow the F*ck out of itself. 

[Heisy]

CMC showing major improvements with 50/50 as well.

This goes ape around NE, might be a little messy. Improvements are 100x tonight though.


.

[George001]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Why is it Dire…don’t we want dire? Let it storm/snow the F*ck out of itself. 

Yep I want a historic blizzard with feet of snow

[George001]

The Canadian has a 962mb miller B nor’easter just off the cape. Frigid airmass as well.

[DavisStraight]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

The Canadian has a 962mb miller B nor’easter just off the cape. Frigid airmass as well.

I'd love a big storm, we all would, just don't know how I feel about getting one on Christmas eve/Christmas day, would cause a lot of travel problems for people. I remember getting a decent one on Christmas when I was a kid, woke up to a decent amount of snow overnight. Will probably knows when and how much, I don't remember.

[40/70 Benchmark]

CMC was run from my basement...that run must be doomed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Wish we could slow it down 24 hours...

[wxsniss]

Holy cow that is exotic

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Holy cow that is exotic

Whoa. Some Colors in that you don’t usually see. 

[wxsniss]

[George001]

7 lows on the Euro, with a 963mb low in eastern central PA. I know it shows rain verbatim, but im not buying that with the airmass in place. It’s funny how it gives Philly 2 feet despite the low being well west, that’s how cold the airmass is. It shows how much room for error we have, if the low even goes into Western Mass instead of cutting to Buffalo, it’s very possible it would be heavy snow for all of SNE, even the coast despite the low running inland. 

[George001]

3 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

I love this look, most of those lows are in the 970s and 960s, with even one in the 940s! I don’t even care that most of them are huggers or run inland a bit, when the airmass is that cold and the low is that strong, I don’t see why it cant snow east of the low.

[mahk_webstah]

32 minutes ago, George001 said:

I love this look, most of those lows are in the 970s and 960s, with even one in the 940s! I don’t even care that most of them are huggers or run inland a bit, when the airmass is that cold and the low is that strong, I don’t see why it cant snow east of the low.

I’m in London and about to go to work, but there are many on here who will give you hundreds of reasons of why it won’t snow east of that low and even when there is a cold air mass preceding. Of course, you probably know all of those reasons but are just in deep psychological denial.