December 2022 Obs/Disc

[Baroclinic Zone]

We monitor

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Works for me. Rather see that vs 970 over BUF.

100%

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1/7/96 and PDII

Mar ‘93 was an epic one too. Esp considering how primitive models were back then. 

[cleetussnow]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Mar ‘93 was an epic one too. Esp considering how primitive models were back then. 

Everytime this storm comes up I mention that the newspapers reported this storm 5 days out.  Thats pretty good!

[cut]

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Was just messing around with ya…cuz you mentioned that you had to contain your excitement, and not talk it up.  As soon as you said that, GFS went way out east. 

All good - I totally got it. I thought the same thing when I saw that GFS post like 200 miles (or 500??) wide right.

[Henry's Weather]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Mar ‘93 was an epic one too. Esp considering how primitive models were back then. 

2016 was on the models since like 8 days prior

[cut]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Mar ‘93 was an epic one too. Esp considering how primitive models were back then. 

Geoff Fox on WTNH New Haven nailed that from beyond his five day if I remember correctly. Never in specifics but in a 'watch out for next week' kinda way.

[cleetussnow]

49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Boxing Day did have it and lost it but it didn’t bring it back until 48 hours out or even less. It was 12z GFS on 12/24 that went nuts and HPC tossed it, lol…then it quickly became apparent at 18z that it had scored a coup as NAM went bonkers and then I think RGEM did (before 18z GFS confirmed the 12z run wasn’t a random model blip)

Janice Huff, the terrible NYC telemet said 2 inches on the 24th 11 PM broadcast.  Lee Goldberg was hyping possibilities.  That guy Nick whatshisface from fox 5 was honking blizzard.  It was a great storm.
 

 

[cleetussnow]

2 minutes ago, cut said:

Geoff Fox on WTNH New Haven nailed that from beyond his five day if I remember correctly. Never in specifics but in a 'watch out for next week' kinda way.

Yep.

[MJO812]

Gefs for 23 is great but long ways out

[78Blizzard]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Works for me. Rather see that vs 970 over BUF.

If that's all we end up with, I'll take it at this point vs the previous alternative.

[WxWatcher007]

It's been on the guidance for a long time. Just happened across this gem on my computer  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It's been on the guidance for a long time. Just happened across this gem on my computer  

I’ll take my chances with that.

[Hoth]

46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Mar ‘93 was an epic one too. Esp considering how primitive models were back then. 

An extraordinary feat, but you can see how even rudimentary models could sniff that out given the hemispheric scale of the features involved. 

[WinterWolf]

28 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It's been on the guidance for a long time. Just happened across this gem on my computer  

That was a week ago today lol.  And it’s still 8 plus days away from now…dam. 

[forkyfork]

On 12/5/2022 at 2:52 PM, forkyfork said:

waahhhhh i didn't get my instant blizzard when the nao went negative!!!!!!!

bump

[brooklynwx99]

holy crap. what a look 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

holy crap. what a look 

Let’s hope we can get it to produce something that can give us a good storm. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

holy crap. what a look 

We’ll need the ULL to dig more but overall, it’s a nuke setup…that’s all we can ask for.

[WxWatcher007]

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Let’s hope we can get it to produce something that can give us a good storm. 

If it doesn't produce snow, it better produce enough rain to flood my backyard, enough wind to put a tree through my deck, or enough cold to immobilize my car. Big dog or bust for next week.  

[Chris12WX]

7 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is the type of potential next week holds. this is just an insanely dynamic solution

you get that over the ocean and George wouldn't even be hyperbolic about his description of it

Cleveland Superbomb must have looked something like that.

[78Blizzard]

Those two members out near Bermuda are keeping this mean over the benchmark instead of a hugger at best. 

[George001]

41 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Those two members out near Bermuda are keeping this mean over the benchmark instead of a hugger at best. 

A hugger might be fine with all the cold air in place 

[UnitedWx]

5 hours ago, Sn0waddict said:

You know we are going to get at least one model run where everything comes together and it absolutely destroys us. Can’t wait to see what that one looks like. 

Ask George,  he's probably working on uploading it now

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Chris12WX said:

Cleveland Superbomb must have looked something like that.

That didn’t do anything for New England unfortunately…the one a few weeks later in 78 did however.  Let’s hope it’s more like the latter in results. 

[wilsonvoid1]

GFS FTW?


.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, Chris12WX said:

Cleveland Superbomb must have looked something like that.

Vomit everywhere 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

23 minutes ago, George001 said:

A hugger might be fine with all the cold air in place 

Eh, the airmass is better that Friday of this week, but it’s not stunning by any stretch of the imagination.

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said:

Those two members out near Bermuda are keeping this mean over the benchmark instead of a hugger at best. 

Eh.  No big deal.  Couple of western outliers too.  I love the look.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

Eh.  No big deal.  Couple of western outliers too.  I love the look.

I felt the same way.