December 2022 Obs/Disc

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That system is all we have before Xmas. I'm not sure where Scott sees another pre Xmas threat, but that's it.

I maybe about 4 days off from punting December. I thought the coast would struggle this month, but I didn't expect to be virtually shut out clear back to near ORH.

I'm at the point where I need more than a hr 270 H5 plot make me feel as though the luck is going to change anytime before the ball drops.

Agreed. I said I would be disappointed if we made it to Christmas without a decent event. And for Wolfie; no, I’m not counting the 2” I got the other night as an “event”.

Ive been staring at charts!! For 3 weeks 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, one was a weaker signal, the other stronger. 

Gotacha. I figured that...don't mind the tone. Just frustrated...I know you don't make shit up, obviously. 

[Hazey]

I haven't recorded more than a trace thus far. Latest storm did a matrix style loop de loop around me. Snowed everywhere except my hood. Good times.

[Baroclinic Zone]

13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Agreed. I said I would be disappointed if we made it to Christmas without a decent event. And for Wolfie; no, I’m not counting the 2” I got the other night as an “event”.

Ive been staring at charts!! For 3 weeks 

Tellin' ya, Winter doesn't start here till after Christmas. 

[WxWatcher007]

17 minutes ago, Hazey said:

I haven't recorded more than a trace thus far. Latest storm did a matrix style loop de loop around me. Snowed everywhere except my hood. Good times.

Brutal

[Typhoon Tip]

Obscenely loud signal between the the 20th and Xmas. 

Some if these individual GEF members  are quite extraordinary. 

[512high]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Obscenely loud signal between the the 20th and Xmas. 

Some if these individual GEF members  are quite extraordinary. 

Maybe a miracle on "34th Street"?? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 512high said:

Maybe a miracle on "34th Street"?? 

If not, there will be a massacre on Hall Street.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Obscenely loud signal between the the 20th and Xmas. 

Some if these individual GEF members  are quite extraordinary. 

Yes. There is no reason why we can't have all hell break loose to send us into the holiday....but the question is where will hell break loose, and will it be hell perceived through our lens, or the collective one of the masses??

Tic, toc...

[WinterWolf]

Can’t control it…so just roll with it. If our shots don’t workout..so be it. Nothing more to say or do. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

The 00z EPS would send me plunging into the Merrimack...Xmas tree in tow..it would help to weigh me down in order to ensure success.

[40/70 Benchmark]

None of the 3 major ensemble means give me a warm and fuzzy about that pre-Xmas system...most of the energy looks west again. The ceiling looks something akin to that crap on Friday...as of now.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, 512high said:

Maybe a miracle on "34th Street"?? 

 Nice reference there 

… Something big is out there. For now, that is all. It could ORD … it could be BOS … it could in between. But these members are some sort of exotically powerful and large -most likely would require a multi faceted risk profile/spectrum event. 

Model mag would tone it down to just a major ordeal.  

Gotta assume that, and also allow for this to emerge in general. But the signals itself is about as robust as is possible 

[brooklynwx99]

19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Obscenely loud signal between the the 20th and Xmas. 

Some if these individual GEF members  are quite extraordinary. 

yeah, this is a pretty incredible signal

closed upper level high in the Beaufort Sea, +PNA, stout WB -NAO, a transient 50/50 feature, and a ridiculously vigorous shortwave for this lead time

all of the pieces are there for a significant storm. where it goes is anyone's guess at this point but this is a very, very high end signal. could impact the coast or the Lakes, no way for anyone to really tell right now

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, this is a pretty incredible signal

closed upper level high in the Beaufort Sea, +PNA, stout WB -NAO, a transient 50/50 feature, and a ridiculously vigorous shortwave for this lead time

all of the pieces are there for a significant storm. where it goes is anyone's guess at this point

I know what my guess would be looking at this...

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know what my guess would be looking at this...

there is a ton of spread here. a good bunch of those are true coastals, too. anything is on the table

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, this is a pretty incredible signal

closed upper level high in the Beaufort Sea, +PNA, stout WB -NAO, a transient 50/50 feature, and a ridiculously vigorous shortwave for this lead time

all of the pieces are there for a significant storm. where it goes is anyone's guess at this point but this is a very, very high end signal. could impact the coast or the Lakes, no way for anyone to really tell right now

Perfectly phrased ^

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there is a ton of spread here. a good bunch of those are true coastals, too. anything is on the table

When isn't there spread at day 10? The point is that the mean has been pinned to a follow up rendition of Friday. There is no denying it.

Time to change? Sure....will that pattern allow? You bet...and it would not surprise me.

But its needs to....

[Typhoon Tip]

In my old days at eastern I’d have threaded this a heart beat by now but … with this more moderate ordeal in the foreground -

[40/70 Benchmark]

If I am being entirely objective, I will say that the extended range ordeal should have less resistance to trending more favorably should the PNA actually moderate....you would think it would trend more favorably.

[512high]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 Nice reference there 

… Something big is out there. For now, that is all. It could ORD … it could be BOS … it could in between. But these members are some sort of exotically powerful and large -most likely would require a multi faceted risk profile/spectrum event. 

Model mag would tone it down to just a major ordeal.  

Gotta assume that, and also allow for this to emerge in general. But the signals itself is about as robust as is possible 

Tip you have my permission to use my "Miracle on 34th Street" if you are the one to start  a thread when and if the time comes" (lol ya, no copyright on that) or we may have alot of obituaries to read ....)

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

When isn't there spread at day 10? The point is that the mean has been pinned to a follow up rendition of Friday. There is no denying it.

Time to change? Sure....will that pattern allow? You bet...

But its needs to....

i don't know, the patterns are wholly different and the block should have a much easier time exerting itself now that there's a full-latitude ridge over the WC. the pattern for next week is much, much, more conducive for a favorable outcome over the NE US. it just has the look, so to speak

the antecedent airmass is also way colder and climo is more favorable as well. I get what you're saying, but I think this setup holds so much more potential. i get the trepidation, and I don't mean to come off as argumentative... just spelling out what I'm seeing

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 512high said:

Tip you have my permission to use my "Miracle on 34th Street" if you are the one to start  a thread when and if the time comes" (lol ya, no copyright on that) or we may have alot of obituaries to read ....)

"Here lays Ray. His outlooks were long and H5 looked great".

RIP-

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i don't know, the patterns are wholly different and the block should have a much easier time exerting itself now that there's a full-latitude ridge over the WC. the pattern for next week is much, much, more conducive for a favorable outcome over the NE US. it just has the look, so to speak

the antecedent airmass is also way colder and climo is more favorable as well. I get what you're saying, but I think this setup holds so much more potential

Yes...agreed. I just pretty much said the same thing with less bells and whistles.

My previous commentary was just based on the current appeal of the three major ensemble suites. Correction vector is more favorable....and the closer we get to January/later in December, the fuse is closer to getting lit is my feeling.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The more the month of December ages, the more confident I get in the Pacific actually improving. I have been saying that for over a month.

[ORH_wxman]

Friday's system was parakeets to Maine 10 days out and look how that turned out....only about a 700-1000 mile error....this one with a much better antecedent airmass? Who knows what it will look like once we're inside of 6 days. Def way more potential than Friday though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Friday's system was parakeets to Maine 10 days out and look how that turned out....only about a 700-1000 mile error....this one with a much better antecedent airmass? Who knows what it will look like once we're inside of 6 days. Def way more potential than Friday though.

Good point. Its easy to overlook because its still rain...guilty as charged. That fits with the old fable of "cutters lock in early".

[alex]

Y'all need to chill and rent a home in the White Mountains. We have some good deals right now

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Friday's system was parakeets to Maine 10 days out and look how that turned out....only about a 700-1000 mile error....this one with a much better antecedent airmass? Who knows what it will look like once we're inside of 6 days. Def way more potential than Friday though.

There’s no accounting for stretched x-coordinate/fast hemisphere in the extended model behavior.

I mean it’s something they tend to correct away from out in time, but then have to add back.  That’s why I was coveting optimism actually when I saw that huge warm bulge in south eastern Canada in recent Euros - first thing I thought of is that warm ball will likely end up above 600mbs as an NAO block…

Now I don’t know if that’s actually going to happen?  But it more than merely seems that everything ends up correcting some 1500 km east in the atmospheric logistics moving D 11+ to D 4..5

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, alex said:

Y'all need to chill and rent a home in the White Mountains. We have some good deals right now

Its not the same....that's like being a bandwagon team when your team loses.