mahk_webstah Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 47 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Bro 6 days away. Seriously, and with the chaotic set up, and the blocking this could trend well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 45 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Suppression depression A lasting impression Then rains to Maine This place Is fuking insane And while we piddle and diddle it prolly meets in the middle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 From what I can tell the 6z EPS extrapolated would continue the trend of the secondary development occuring further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said: From what I can tell the 6z EPS extrapolated would continue the trend of the secondary development occuring further inland. Trend is not your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Trend is not your friend. Enjoy what we get today/night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: From what I can tell the 6z EPS extrapolated would continue the trend of the secondary development occuring further inland. Wants to plant that low right over your noggin, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Enjoy what we get today/night You and Taunton might be correct, but let's look at the big picture. The atmosphere is very chaotic. So many of players on the field and there's not one set in stone track for the end of the week deal. You and Taunton blizzard keep poo-pooing the storm as a Rainer. Keep is real guys. Let's see what happens over the next 24 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Maybe the bright side is, the trend may not be our friend at the moment, but we still have 5 days to go on this potential, and maybe some decent trending when it really matters come Tuesday/Wednesday, depending what comes of this(tonight’s system)and the 50/50 low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: Wants to plant that low right over your noggin, I’m not sure we like that. Messenger ticks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Just now, mahk_webstah said: I’m not sure we like that. Messenger ticks? I don't care much for here, But it looks like where i plan on being a lot this winter is going to cash, Cant really see this tracking much further west as long as there's a secondary, There will be a limit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: I don't care much for here, But it looks like where i plan on being a lot this winter is going to cash, Cant really see this tracking much further west as long as there's a secondary, There will be a limit. The County always cashes in. Pittsburgh NH over to n&c Maine up into Quebec is just another spectacular world… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: The County always cashes in. Pittsburgh NH over to n&c Maine up into Quebec is just another spectacular world… Yes, All those areas i expect to do well, Going forward, Pattern looks very good so there will be more and better chances if this next one doesn't work out for many. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 27 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: You and Taunton might be correct, but let's look at the big picture. The atmosphere is very chaotic. So many of players on the field and there's not one set in stone track for the end of the week deal. You and Taunton blizzard keep poo-pooing the storm as a Rainer. Keep is real guys. Let's see what happens over the next 24 hours. she gone. in fact it looks like December is toast 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 52 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Maybe the bright side is, the trend may not be our friend at the moment, but we still have 5 days to go on this potential, and maybe some decent trending when it really matters come Tuesday/Wednesday, depending what comes of this(tonight’s system)and the 50/50 low. Hey man... good catchin' up with y'all last night ... Agreed with the sentiment, particularly as it relates the bold above. My problem ...well, 'concern,' with the guidance is that it is pressed against the west side of the physics ( oh god, what does he mean now lol) - I just mean it can't really go any farther W. A longer detail... read at on headache risk: The whole deep layer structure is trying to move into a region that less really supported at a larger planetary scope. If we look out toward that mid week period, crucially there is a big time -NAO pulse. The situation in the models becomes exceedingly complex, because they have to first be right about that occurrence, then...subsequently, right about how it's forcing influences the surrounding hemisphere. That 2ndary influence is based upon an aspect that has not even yet materialized (that being the first). Boo ya for the models if they get both right - seriously.. A little less likely. It's not impossible. But ... that's what I mean by 'pressed.' I don't like depending on systems in the mid/ext range models that are pressed for any reason - and this one is pressed based upon shit that hasn't even occurred in real time. It's like when you see a bomb on the D7 that is perfect? You know it won't 'last' in the runs because it can't make it through the gauntlet of future permutation - only very rarely do bombs at that range 'survive' the fractal mayhem. This thing may benefit from the same sort of aspect. It's present modeled behavior can't really go much more west, or else the other mass fields et al have to significantly change. Barring the unlikeliness of that super synoptic occurrence ... that means it's gotta fend off any reason to come back SE - which is frankly more climatologically appealing with -NAO burst immediately preceding it, anyway. You're homage to the '50/50' aspect is on point and related there - imho. Murphy's Law aside ( always a risk hahaha) it would be less likely that a D5..6 outlook survives 5..6 days of 'as west as it can'. Having said all that... this thing has a cornucopia of reason to not throw hands, anyway. It's more of 'SWFE' ...which those are notoriously too quick to erode out cold. A reality that emerges often during now-cast, when meso lows along the 925-850 mb warm materialize ...these types of intra event phenomenon are not going to be seen at this range. It's also still real as a storm, and given to the -NAO blocking that is more likely to occur than not, there's climo and common sense (really) to the notion of a colder lower troposphere adjusting the antecedent air mass as we near. Just like this weekend. It was supposed to 42 F as a regional mean today, when this 'little critter' was 7 day ago in the GFS...etc. It is now 24-ish around the region at this 10 am hour, with almost nill means to really get the T even to freezing. Lots of reasons for monitoring. I am not just trying to be contrarian to the populous mood in here ... ha! seriously, if there anything that is less then objective about this analysis, or it's ability to give people headaches ... I will stand both corrected and disappointed... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 George ... I can see you posting in the slant indicator. I can "feel" you typing the word blizzard. STOP IT nothing I said requires the use of the word blizzard, nor your "clever" ruse to cloak it in a contextual synonym like, "burial" instead. lol 2 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Yeah I could totally see this system turning into more of a SWFE but the thermals tick colder as we get closer as Tip is musing above. That kind of happened in the Nov 2018 event and obviously happened in some other front enders like 12/16/07. We don’t have an intense arctic airmass out ahead of it but it’s not a total garbage airmass either…we get that PV lobe insert about 24-36 hours prior to the system and that’s not just going to erode that quickly over the interior. Still a ways to go though. Let’s see how todays system phases with the PV lobe first and we’re probably going to get some slightly different solutions as more data comes on the west coast…even the ridging out there matters because it may try to interact with the Hudson Bay block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 I’m not sticking a fork in the Friday system for another 24 hours or so. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I’m not sticking a fork in the Friday system for another 24 hours or so. At 1000+ feet in N ORH county, you’re prob not sticking a fork in this system at all. Maybe if it continues to trend west for another 3-4 runs. But I’d be kind of surprised if it kept doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 With that OES banding in PLY County. I can recall cweat going from exit-to-exit reporting conditions. Some white lawns down that-away! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: George ... I can see you posting in the slant indicator. I can "feel" you typing the word blizzard. STOP IT nothing I said requires the use of the word blizzard, nor your "clever" ruse to cloak it in a contextual synonym like, "burial" instead. lol Nope, I don’t like seeing the ULL so far north on the models. The 500mb evolution looks a lot different and lower ceiling than it did 12z yesterday. We need that to come under us, none of that ULL staying in the Midwest and a piece of energy escaping out ahead of it bullshit. Fortunately there is still plenty of time for it to change back to the look it had yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Ah ha! .... the super detective, "NAVGEM" has foiled yet another crime of model perjury attempted by the ...everyone else, by exposing what's really going to happen with that trough nearing the end of this week... 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ah ha! .... the super detective, "NAVGEM" has foiled yet another crime of model perjury attempted by the ...everyone else, by exposing what's really going to happen with that trough nearing the end of this week... NAVY ON BOARD! LETS FUCKING GO! 2 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 In all seriousness, that’s the look we need to start seeing on the other guidance the next couple of days. Seeing the Navy on board gives me a bit more hope that last nights bad trends didn’t kill this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, George001 said: NAVY ON BOARD! LETS FUCKING GO! This post may break weenie records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: This post may break weenie records. I am pretty sure George was joking this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I am pretty sure George was joking this time 7 minutes ago, George001 said: In all seriousness, that’s the look we need to start seeing on the other guidance the next couple of days. Seeing the Navy on board gives me a bit more hope that last nights bad trends didn’t kill this threat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Gfs tracks close to I-95 and crushes S VT to Monadanocks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: This post may break weenie records. So many buns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The next post said “in all seriousness “. So ya the “let’s fukking go” was a joke but the a little more Hope was real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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