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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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  On 12/11/2022 at 7:39 AM, powderfreak said:

All Ensembles definitely looking a bit better to fight off suppression issues, but still a very long way to go.  The block can shunt it all south in a hurry.

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My thoughts haven't changed since Friday when so many were obsessed with suppression.

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  On 12/11/2022 at 10:35 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Still time to go back to a more favorable result but we’ll need to see those trends start today . If it still looks like this 24 hours from now most of New England is in trouble 

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Agreed.  Not looking good and hope's waning.  Everything is pointing to hugger.  At least we can have 40* and rain instead of of 55 and rain.

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BOX AFD sums it up well

Thursday and Beyond... The main focus for the long term remains the potential for an impactful coastal storm sometime Thursday to Saturday. A bit of a windshield wiper effect has taken hold of the end of the long term forecast as deterministic guidance is having difficulty resolving the complex pattern that develops across the CONUS next week. As more data is incorporated into the models as the weather system tracks across the west, a better picture should develop over the coming days. Even so, some run to run consistency has begun to develop, and ensemble surface lows have begun to cluster off of the mid-Atlantic sometime in the late Thursday to early Friday timeframe. While there is significant uncertainty in P-Type at this time, confidence is growing that some sort of precipitation will fall across our CWA late week/early next weekend as the low tracks near to or over our region. NBM PoPs again range in the likely category, and unlike the last few evenings, we elected to keep PoPs at likely given growing confidence in the existence of the event. Trends will need to be carefully analyzed to evaluate the potential impacts and geographic range of accumulating snow.

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  On 12/11/2022 at 12:30 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’ll be pretty disappointed if we creep towards Christmas and have nothing to show for it.

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I think most of us will. But, we have some time still.

If all else fails.... We do still have 3 more months of fun and games! Glass half full kind of guy here .. ;-)

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  On 12/11/2022 at 12:58 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ugly overnight runs flipped the script in a hurry. It is what it is…

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Yup...but the extended GEFS look good

Hopefully we pick up a few inches today, but that seems to be moving north east as well. So we shall see... At least it feels like snow out there this morning.

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  On 12/11/2022 at 1:03 PM, Spanks45 said:

Yup...but the extended GEFS look good

Hopefully we pick up a few inches today, but that seems to be moving north east as well. So we shall see... At least it feels like snow out there this morning.

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Yea. It’s active moving forward. We’ll grab something later too, not sweating every detail either. 

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