dendrite Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Keep it to weather. Thanks 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 2:25 AM, dryslot said: I think if you got another few panels you would see this getting kicked more ENE. Expand We pray. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 2:28 AM, WxWatcher007 said: That’d be the hope. Still plenty of time for movement in either direction. Expand My money is on this getting shunted more to the ENE then running inland in this pattern, The question that i think needs to be answered is how far north it gets before that happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 2:25 AM, dryslot said: I think if you got another few panels you would see this getting kicked more ENE. Expand This is what I mean.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 2:10 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: It could be slower, too...it doesn't look like the confluence is weaker. Expand On 12/11/2022 at 2:25 AM, dryslot said: I think if you got another few panels you would see this getting kicked more ENE. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 2:35 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is what I mean.... Expand Yes, I knew where you were going with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 2:39 AM, dryslot said: Yes, I knew where you were going with that. Expand A lot of these runs are going to evolve in such a manner that they will induce mass weenie suicides at certain points, but you must keep in mind how anomalous this block is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 I feel like this will be especially common with respect to the off hour runs because they don't finish. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 2:42 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: A lot of these runs are going to evolve in such a manner that they will induce mass weenie suicides at certain points, but you must keep in mind how anomalous this block is. Expand Going to need a few more days to get this to play out, Really don't want to get sucked in from run to run changes at this lead, Need to get this into a reasonable window on the OP models anyways, For now, Its just watch the trends on the Ensembles to get a feel on where this may be heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 2:43 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I feel like this will be especially common with respect to the off hour runs because they don't finish. Expand Good point. We still have time and it’s probably most helpful to see the full run. It’s likely to be chaotic for a few more days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Models really struggle with a block type of pattern until we get closer so your going to get some wild swings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 2:42 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: A lot of these runs are going to evolve in such a manner that they will induce mass weenie suicides at certain points, but you must keep in mind how anomalous this block is. Expand So suppression depression is the flavor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 I’m pretty confident that someone within an hour of pickles is gonna get a good snow dump end of the week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 3:08 AM, weathafella said: I’m pretty confident that someone within an hour of pickles is gonna get a good snow dump end of the week. Expand Maybe replace snow dump with a good.. pounding 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 3:08 AM, weathafella said: I’m pretty confident that someone within an hour of pickles is gonna get a good snow dump end of the week. Expand According to google maps, I'm outside that window............ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 GFS is holding the trough back west and spitting out a more minoring wave … yet another peregrination in this saga. ICON looked impressive aloft but it’s sfc handling is dubiously too warm. It intrudes warm air under mid level heights crashing through 522DM and has it raining …. It’s unlikely to combine those particular metrics without severe thunderstorms and tornadoes -ICON of lunacy is what that is. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 4:26 AM, Typhoon Tip said: GFS is holding the trough back west and spitting out a more minoring wave … yet another peregrination in this saga. ICON looked impressive aloft but it’s sfc handling is dubiously too warm. It intrudes warm air under mid level heights crashing through 522DM and has it raining …. It’s unlikely to combine those particular metrics without severe thunderstorms and tornadoes -ICON of lunacy is what that is. Expand GFS is just all over the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 4:26 AM, Typhoon Tip said: GFS is holding the trough back west and spitting out a more minoring wave … yet another peregrination in this saga. ICON looked impressive aloft but it’s sfc handling is dubiously too warm. It intrudes warm air under mid level heights crashing through 522DM and has it raining …. It’s unlikely to combine those particular metrics without severe thunderstorms and tornadoes -ICON of lunacy is what that is. Expand Cmc warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Shit, we lost the Canadian. It has a SWFE now that really sucks. Hopefully the models are doing the typical lose it in the mid range and then bring the storm back thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 4:32 AM, George001 said: Shit, we lost the Canadian. It has a SWFE now that really sucks. Hopefully the models are doing the typical lose it in the mid range and then bring the storm back thing. Expand Its early, I wouldn't sweat it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 Just look at the ensemble means. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 The models tonight are holding on to the primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 4:42 AM, MJO812 said: The models tonight are holding on to the primary. Expand Makes zero sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 4:42 AM, MJO812 said: The models tonight are holding on to the primary. Expand Of course they are. CT gets their own private snowstorm tomorrow and then Friday will cut across Worcester. Hot start to the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 4:43 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Makes zero sense. Expand Every model and ensembles Weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 4:45 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Of course they are. CT gets their own private snowstorm tomorrow and then Friday will cut across Worcester. Hot start to the year Expand Slow your roll Taunton. The solution isn't even figured out yet. Wait until Tuesday before making any calls. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 I was reading blog from a volcanologist. He said that the eruption at Tonga will and has created chaos in the atmosphere across the globe. So to me just makes things more exciting because we're not sure what's going to happen until it gets close to an event 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 4:56 AM, Snowcrazed71 said: I was reading blog from a volcanologist. He said that the eruption at Tonga will and has created chaos in the atmosphere across the globe. So to me just makes things more exciting because we're not sure what's going to happen until it gets close to an event Expand Hello! Could you share a link to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 Seeing that block, I'll take my chances with consensus being too tucked vs being on the N edge at this juncture. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 5:04 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Seeing that block, I'll take my chances with consensus being too tucked vs being on the N edge at this juncture. Expand Way too early The block is too strong for the primary to crash into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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