ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 The block just makes cutters and runners less likely but they can still happen because of nuances in the flow and which piece of vorticity phase and which don’t….there’s a lot of variables. Right now we just know a storm is looking more and more likely and that’s about all we can say. It prob won’t be cutting into BUF or CLEbut huggers or inland runners are still a possibility. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Hope everyone enjoys what little snow they get tomorrow because trend is not your friend 1 3 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Hope everyone enjoys what little snow they get tomorrow because trend is not your friend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Lock him up. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We need to have an intervention for weenies….repeat after me: ”You can have huggers and runners with a strong NAO block” ”You can have huggers and runners with a strong NAO block” ”You can have huggers and runners with a strong NAO block” Sad but true. Wasn't there a system last year that defied expectations given a powerful high? Everyone was expecting the models to cave to something something off the coast--I think it ended up a runner with brief snow to heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Sad but true. Wasn't there a system last year that defied expectations given a powerful high? Everyone was expecting the models to cave to something something off the coast--I think it ended up a runner with brief snow to heavy rain. January 2022. Good pac with no blocking but somehow a low off obx phased and went into upstate ny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Latest CIPS analog guidance no surprise has Dec 1992 as the #1 analog It's interesting to note the slightly further west NAO blocking we have this time around compared to 1992 (sitting squarely over the Hudson Bay on the 12z GFS, compared to east of it). Will that make a difference? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 I am ready for the beating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 I have purposely not looked at ANYTHING since late evening yesterday. Going to be fun to pop into the g2g. My hopes are up that my imby forecast improved. Only thing I did see was our Mets up totals a bit near me. I'm pretty much on 2/3" line. Looking forward to seeing everyone. Checking out now. Pics to come from the g2g. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Hope everyone enjoys what little snow they get tomorrow because trend is not your friend Are you coming the g2g? I can't promise your negativity might cause you to need a restraining order against me. Hehe kidding 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 What's the euro doing ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 From MA forum still going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What's the euro doing ? Euro isn’t out that far on tropical tidbits, how does it look? I saw on other boards that it is more of a hugger track so it starts as rain. However, the low gets very strong, down to 982 mb over around Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 EURO is 12-24" over a good part of interior SNE destroys Kevin to Ray Gets to CNJ then pushes back ESE and stalls at BM in the 970s while it crushed interior SNE... wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Wow central PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, George001 said: Euro isn’t out that far on tropical tidbits, how does it look? I saw on other boards that it is more of a hugger track so it starts as rain. However, the low gets very strong, down to 982 mb over around Philly. The question now is is it had due north or does it head out under Long Island. If it heads out under Long Island then yes, I can see it's switching over to snow for us in Southern New England. . We have time to watch this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: EURO is 12-24" over a good part of interior SNE destroys Kevin to Ray Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: EURO is 12-24" over a good part of interior SNE destroys Kevin to Ray Well.... which is it? 12 or 24 - cuz 12 sucks donkey ballz. 24's awesome hahaha j/k 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Well.... which is it? 12 or 24 - cuz 12 sucks donkey ballz. 24's awesome hahaha j/k If it's 12" I'm off this forum for good .. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Well.... which is it? 12 or 24 - cuz 12 sucks donkey ballz. 24's awesome hahaha j/k 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: EURO is 12-24" over a good part of interior SNE destroys Kevin to Ray Gets to CNJ then pushes back ESE and stalls at BM in the 970s while it crushed interior SNE... wow A little torchy down there to start until heights crash, but that would be major impacts either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 35 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: ahh that's a p.o.s. useless storm... actually know what? For those making the comparison to 1992 - yeeeah... Will and I were mentioning that 'likeness' two or three days ago, just based upon behavior at mid levels. I wrote about that in the scrolled thread that for some reason no one cares about - it's about this storm folks... Anyway, what I was going say is, that storm was all rain in the guidance, for the 5 or so days leading the event. I've told the novella version of that experience before ...won't re-turn the phrases again for now... However, two days before that got under way, it was supposed to be rain. ...by the way, this is the 30-year anniversary ...Dec 10-12th... - I was sitting in History of American Lit ...wanting to jam an ice-pick in my ear canal ..., when the girl sitting next to me was waxing about the models to me, "...I don't know," she said, "this may not be all rain," with an air of ominous to her tone that only a fellow weather dweeb would detect. I encouraged more out of her and she just was saying that the consensus in the weather lab was that it could flip to snow - "could flip to snow". Holy shit was that prescient! They had to 'gut' instinct that call. Honestly, I can't recall precisely what the forecast was for west of 495 (say...). I just remember during the 11th ... people around campus were talking about Worcester presently being igloo-ed under.... I know that was not predicted, either way. Not that. This is the blue bomb time of year... Now, then again in March, with blurry end points. But it's when you get these warm BL that get obliterated by WB and turbulent mixing , height falls ...etc, and then the leading marginal thermal profiles are suddenly -1C beneath the growth region, and then it's caking cotton balls. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 and then theres this threat ..... 24-36 hours of 55-95 mph gusts for the cape yikes... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: ahh that's a p.o.s. useless storm... actually know what? For those making the comparison to 1992 - yeeeah... Will and I were mentioning that 'likeness' two or three days ago, just based upon behavior at mid levels. I wrote about that in the scrolled thread that for some reason no one cares about - it's about this storm folks... Anyway, what I was going say is, that storm was all rain in the guidance, for the 5 or so days leading the event. I've told the novella version of that experience before ...won't re-turn the phrases again for now... However, two days before that got under way ...by the way, this is the 30-year anniversary ...Dec 10-12th... - I was sitting in History of American Lit ...wanting to jam an ice-pick in my ear canal ..., when the girl sitting next to me was waxing about the models to me, "...I don't know," she said, "this may not be all rain," with an air of ominous to her tone that only a fellow weather dweeb would detect. I encouraged more out of her and she just was saying that the consensus in the weather lab was that it could flip to snow - "could flip to snow". Holy shit was that prescient! They had to 'gut' instinct that call. Honestly, I can recall precisely what the forecast was for west of 495 (say...). I just remember during the 11th ... people around campus were talking about the Worcester being igloo-ed under.... I know that was not predicted, either way. Not that. This is the blue bomb time of year... Now, then again in March, with blurry end points. But it's when you get these warm BL that get obliterated by WB and turbulent mixing , height falls ...etc, and then the leading marginal thermal profiles are suddenly -1C beneath the growth region, and then it's caking cotton balls. And then we all went to the PSC for $5 Miller Lite pitchers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 13 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: and then theres this threat ..... 24-36 hours of 55-95 mph gusts for the cape yikes... Nice breeze on montauk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 The Pivotal weenie clown for those interested.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Heh… that would be something. 8-12” of snow after heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 25 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Heh… that would be something. 8-12” of snow after heavy rain. 1992 did just that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2022 Author Share Posted December 10, 2022 This looks like Dec 1992 reduced about about 25%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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