CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Canadian tucky too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Yeah...this is a great run folks. Perhaps not for the scalar value, but the scalar value in this case bears less relevancy to where this is "likely" heading. The delta(model) is hugely more the focus - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Canadian tucky too. That's very possible. The primary was always an issue and the 50/50 ain't great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Yeah bigger agreement on tucked system. Still d6. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: That's very possible. The primary was always an issue and the 50/50 ain't great. We are still a week away. The primary isn't going to ram into the block like that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Cmc seems to run it up the HRV. Occludes over eastern NY state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Yeah you don’t want a low tucked into NY bight for most of SNE. But there’s miles to go on this threat. It’s good that we’re seeing a significant event continuing to show up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 The GFS seems to be on board this run, with a storm coming up the coast. The path it has is north from North Carolina to southeast New York and then due east to about 150 miles east of Cape Cod. That ain't happening. So I just look at it as a storm off North Carolina and then off Cape Cod. At this point it is in that general area and that is a good thing, a real possibility for a decent Nor'easter. Exact track to be determined. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah you don’t want a low tucked into NY bight for most of SNE. But there’s miles to go on this threat. It’s good that we’re seeing a significant event continuing to show up. The GGEM is doing what it is doing for a different set of reasons than the GFS. Coincident results on this one guidance - just sayn' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, lee59 said: The GFS seems to be on board this run, with a storm coming up the coast. The path it has is north from North Carolina to southeast New York and then due east to about 150 miles east of Cape Cod. That ain't happening. So I just look at it as a storm off North Carolina and then off Cape Cod. At this point it is in that general area and that is a good thing, a real possibility for a decent Nor'easter. Exact track to be determined. The low tracks over my fanny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 From 2 feet in SC to Rains to Maines.. in one run . Now it matches the Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: From 2 feet in SC to Rains to Maines.. in one run . Now it matches the Ukie At least the CMC brings you some dews 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, dendrite said: At least the CMC brings you some dews With a block on roids.. I’ll sell that 100 times over 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 I love when we get a block and suddenly weenies think a low can’t tuck inland a bit anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: With a block on roids.. I’ll sell that 100 times over Agree Models are all over right now 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: I love when we get a block and suddenly weenies think a low can’t tuck inland a bit anymore. Has it ever happened in wx lore? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We are still a week away. The primary isn't going to ram into the block like that. Agree. It can be a hugger but running that far inland with a strong block? Nah. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Has it ever happened in wx lore? A block 1-2k miles north of NYC will always keep a low 50 miles off the coast and never allow it 50 miles inland. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, George001 said: Agree. It can be a hugger but running that far inland with a strong block? Nah. Agree 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Maybe the end result is a megalopolis thumping, but weenies gone wild nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Ukie not quite as tucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Has it ever happened in wx lore? I only found this from ginxy 1734 tolland scrolls 2 entries ye Block hath failed as rain sweeps thy tolland mount Towns folks sweat and thy knickers wet As counselmen weenie wood drunk At ye tavern for week after Going thru town warning of “snow for days” again. Ye hate to see it 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: I love when we get a block and suddenly weenies think a low can’t tuck inland a bit anymore. We need to have an intervention for weenies….repeat after me: ”You can have huggers and runners with a strong NAO block” ”You can have huggers and runners with a strong NAO block” ”You can have huggers and runners with a strong NAO block” 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Even if it does tuck a bit, if the low strengthens enough it will dynamically cool the column. There is a lot of energy around so I think the low will strengthen a lot (like 0z Canadian last night), which creates more room for error with regards to the track. If it deepens to the 970s or 960s the rain snow line could potentially crash right to or even east of the low. The epo is also raging negative so there should be plenty of cold air around. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Gefs looks better then the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs looks better then the op A lot of mehs and tuckies in there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: A lot of mehs and tuckies in there. Yep but better look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Yep but better look As long as storm doesn’t go poof we good for now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We need to have an intervention for weenies….repeat after me: ”You can have huggers and runners with a strong NAO block” ”You can have huggers and runners with a strong NAO block” ”You can have huggers and runners with a strong NAO block” As a weenie, I see the block as Gandalf and he says “You shall not pass” to the low as it approaches a certain latitude. If Gandalf tells you “You shall not pass”, you LISTEN to him, because if you don’t he beats you over the head with his stick. The low is smart, it understands this so when Gandalf tells it “You shall not pass”, it dips. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 As a weenie, I see the block as Gandalf and he says “You shall not pass” to the low as it approaches a certain latitude. If Gandalf tells you “You shall not pass”, you LISTEN to him, because if you don’t he beats you over the head with his stick. The low is smart, it understands this so when Gandalf tells it “You shall not pass”, it dips. No, you can’t just have one drink. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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