Sled Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 2 hours ago, George001 said: Agreed, but this one looks like it has a higher ceiling due to the reasons I stated in the post above. The ULL is deepening rapidly and is very strong. Gfs is on its own so I’m ignoring it. Every storm *is* a blizzard, George. don't listen to these negative nancys. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2022 Author Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Did hour 150 on 12z eps differ much w mall location and strength . Those are all pretty weak except the one 989 It's just getting going at that latitude...its Miller B. Do you want 980mb off of SC occluding abeam of DC? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Haha fair point. I was just going back to delete the comment as I looked at 12z eps I would want the mean a bit less than 999 as it passed us I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Did hour 150 on 12z eps differ much w mall location and strength . Those are all pretty weak except the one 989 12z 18z Ray is right. Nothing good comes with it going nuclear that far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 That’s a pretty clear transfer to a Miller B look on the eps. If people are hoping for a decent storm, that’s what you want to hope for. SWFE into an average airmass isn’t going to be exciting for a good portion of SNE 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2022 Author Share Posted December 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 12z 18z Ray is right. Nothing good comes with it going nuclear that far south. If anything, the primary doesn't look to get quite as far N on 18z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If anything, the primary doesn't look to get quite as far N on 18z. Agreed. That’s a pretty good look overall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Merry Christmas 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Grinch wearing a snorkel jacket. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 20 minutes ago, dryslot said: Grinch wearing a snorkel jacket. A true blast from the past! I remember when my parents moved to FL in the 70s I went to visit and it was cold-50s for highs. Floridians in snorkel jackets. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Gfs shredded to the bone on 16’th Literally nada by hour 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 0Z GFS says no on the 16th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 17 minutes ago, weathafella said: A true blast from the past! I remember when my parents moved to FL in the 70s I went to visit and it was cold-50s for highs. Floridians in snorkel jackets. I went down one January, highs were in the 50's and windy, low at night below freezing, I didn't bring a jacket, had to buy one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Hopefully the gfs is on crack . Otherwise it’s boring AF for a bit more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Well... Who has the better record for a system almost a week out? Didn't the GFS go pretty far south with the Sunday/Monday storm? Only to come back north? Unless I'm imagining that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Hopefully the gfs is on crack . Otherwise it’s boring AF for a bit more I’d bet it is. Icon and cmc have a coastal. We’ve been here before. Doesn’t mean we will get a George outcome but I’d bet against a shredded whiff a week out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Meanwhile cmc is George’s blizzard 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Canada delivers. I’d sign right now for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Meanwhile cmc is George’s blizzard Stall right over Scooter’s noggin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Canada delivers. I’d sign right now for that. Yea. 3ft through central sne, I guess so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. 3ft through central sne, I guess so. Don’t kill the dopamine drip vibe. Let us valley weenies hallucinate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Still shoveling 5 yrs of GGEM snow, Toss. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2022 Author Share Posted December 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’d bet it is. Icon and cmc have a coastal. We’ve been here before. Doesn’t mean we will get a George outcome but I’d bet against a shredded whiff a week out. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Still shoveling 5 yrs of GGEM snow, Toss. In all seriousness, and forgetting the exotic op solutions, the gfs has been on an island. Even a blend of guidance would yield a nice warning level event for most. That’s a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Don’t kill the dopamine drip vibe. Let us valley weenies hallucinate. Not killing anything. Just love the nonchalant “I’d sign up for that”…..BECS. The potential is there for an upper echelon event anyways. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 GFS imo is completely mishandling the ULL in the Atlantic. CMC/Euro have been far more consistent. CMC would be really nice for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’d bet it is. Icon and cmc have a coastal. We’ve been here before. Doesn’t mean we will get a George outcome but I’d bet against a shredded whiff a week out. As long as euro doesn’t trend toward a shredder i wouldn’t mention icon at day 7 in this pattern but I’d obviously rather have them show a coastal I think lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2022 Author Share Posted December 10, 2022 My goal posts are a blizzard to a SWFE...slight nod to the latter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 GFS management of the H5 vortex north of ME is so different and therein lies the solution difference. GFS brings it over NNE and is slower to scoot it east vs other guidance. We'll keep an eye on this and see but I'm skeptical of that evolution given where the primary is starting. With all that said, one would think the GFS argues for a bigger solution on Sunday/Monday suppressing everything for a period afterwards. So if we get an upside surprise late weekend, consider the GFS as having a bit more validity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 I feel like we should be getting a statement from NCEP operations stating that they’re taking the GFS off-line for emergency maintenance If you look at the last three runs across North America the only thing consistent is a state utter entropy. And it’s plate of spaghetti with a different construction to the synoptically layout everywhere on each run. Weird. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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