December 2022 Obs/Disc

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well that’s the difference then. Many Mets and us do expect more moves with a massive block on roids 

Read above 

[Baroclinic Zone]

I’m in stitches 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Read above 

I did . We’ll see who ends up with better ideas . I think by Saturday at the GTG you’ll be back patting me . 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

36 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s 8 days away for god sakes.  It’s better at this point for it to look the way it does…If it looked great today, do you think it would look that way 8 days from now. Lots of trending to go over THE NEXT 8 days.  
 

Are you always a complaining whining lil beotch? Or just like that on here? 

 

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He bitches but it does need work. Are we all just assuming this is going to keep going south until it passes over Cuba?

I don’t care if it’s 80 days away dude, it needs work. What I said wasn’t a lie. Are you and others just assuming it’s going to keep getting better.

The everything is awesome crew.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I did . We’ll see who ends up with better ideas . I think by Saturday at the GTG you’ll be back patting me . 

I don’t think you read anything  I said but OK.

[dryslot]

DIT ripping back bong hits between the IPA's.

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

 

I don’t care if it’s 80 days away dude, it needs work. What I said wasn’t a lie. Are you and others just assuming it’s going to keep getting better.

The everything is awesome crew.

This is when everyone gets amped up and confused. Usually at the onset of a good pattern. 
All I said was that these visions of all snow and this thing keeping on moving offshore are not a lock and I stated  what needs work. I never said it couldn’t happen, but there is a difference between expecting it to happen like some are, and being somewhat objective and breaking down what needs to happen. I still feel this is a CNE and NNE deal, but I think we mentioned many times that it could become more wintry here and stated why. 
 

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Low levels are torched too when you have a low ripping into SE NY. Need this to not get yanked back to the west like that. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

50 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Considering it was 61 degrees and pouring on its progs here 2 days ago for the 16th I wouldn't put it past the GFS to say congrats Bermuda 

There is a limit w the primary that far N initially 

[78Blizzard]

Pattern changes are notoriously difficult to accurately predict — especially more than a week in advance. This is part of the reason for caution when you come across any specific predictions for snowstorms or intense cold snaps more than a few days in advance.

“Models tend to prematurely predict pattern changes, and I think that this is a good example of that,” wrote Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, in a text message.

Cohen noted that Europe responds more quickly to the negative phase of the NAO compared with the eastern United States. In that sense, he expects cold air to continue to affect Europe before taking aim at the Lower 48.

As for the chances for significant snow in the eastern United States, Cohen said that “the payoff usually comes at the end of the pattern.” He added, “The best chance for a big snowfall is when the NAO is transitioning from negative to positive.”

The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast still appear on track to turn more wintry during the second half of the month. As Christmas approaches, if you’re rooting for snow, waiting is often the hardest part.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Pattern changes are notoriously difficult to accurately predict — especially more than a week in advance. This is part of the reason for caution when you come across any specific predictions for snowstorms or intense cold snaps more than a few days in advance.

“Models tend to prematurely predict pattern changes, and I think that this is a good example of that,” wrote Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, in a text message.

Cohen noted that Europe responds more quickly to the negative phase of the NAO compared with the eastern United States. In that sense, he expects cold air to continue to affect Europe before taking aim at the Lower 48.

As for the chances for significant snow in the eastern United States, Cohen said that “the payoff usually comes at the end of the pattern.” He added, “The best chance for a big snowfall is when the NAO is transitioning from negative to positive.”

The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast still appear on track to turn more wintry during the second half of the month. As Christmas approaches, if you’re rooting for snow, waiting is often the hardest part.

Judah

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

 

I don’t care if it’s 80 days away dude, it needs work. What I said wasn’t a lie. Are you and others just assuming it’s going to keep getting better.

The everything is awesome crew.

Who said everything is awesome? Not one person. I don’t really think we get clobbered or anything by this potential.  But that block is gaining strength in recent modeling…it’s not done trending/changing at all.  Modeling gonna struggle with that. 
 

Would you want it to look great now? Would you….DUDE?  Nobody is saying it’s gonna be a big snowstorm, but we have a long way to go until next Friday.
A couple days back it was in Detroit…And you were whining close the shades(even this morning)…lol as you always do.  
 

You’ve been wrong on the pattern change when you jumped off the train last week, and over the weekend. You didn’t heed the advice of some of the pros and experienced folks on here..who explained their reasoning with science. But you went with the Debbie’s as usual.   
 

[CoastalWx]

So much anger 

[dryslot]

Some in here need coddling and reassuring that everything is going to be alright.

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is a limit w the primary that far N initially 

So far west and dying. But yea I guess. Many examples of primaries into Detroit with Buffalo 60 degrees while we dump. The bigger issue is antecedent air mass from top to bottom , strength and location of HP and dewpoint feed. Obviously so far out it could revert to a soueaster for all we know.

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is when everyone gets amped up and confused. Usually at the onset of a good pattern. 
All I said was that these visions of all snow and this thing keeping on moving offshore are not a lock and I stated  what needs work. I never said it couldn’t happen, but there is a difference between expecting it to happen like some are, and being somewhat objective and breaking down what needs to happen. I still feel this is a CNE and NNE deal, but I think we mentioned many times that it could become more wintry here and stated why. 
 

I’m certainly not questioning you or your reasoning. I agree with your take.  
 

But thanks for telling us TBlizz it needs work 8 days out.  No shit!  This morning he said close the shades for the rest of the month…let’s see if he’s right on that? 
 

 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Some in here need coddling and reassuring that everything is going to be alright.

Some are so defensive. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

[SJonesWX]

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I did . We’ll see who ends up with better ideas . I think by Saturday at the GTG you’ll be back patting me . 

spiking the football on day 8. good luck with your forecast 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, SJonesWX said:

spiking the football on day 8. good luck with your forecast 

I’m still cleaning up from his screaming sou’easters. I just can’t take a raging snowstorm right now.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Some are so defensive. 

A few are, Need to have more patience here, Its going to snow, It always does.

[WxWatcher007]

18z Euro looked pretty nice for CT Sun-Mon

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Low levels are torched too when you have a low ripping into SE NY. Need this to not get yanked back to the west like that. 

Not that you don’t know this… But like this current run up to this week demonstrated with the lower tropospheric air mass handling, the models were significantly too warm in the mid range and have been correcting steadily colder.

There’s nothing about that antecedent condition next week that strikes me as being able to moderate that air mass. Trust me. I would implore people assume a colder boundary layer with much more resistance than what you’re seeing in that GFS solution verbatim

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Who said everything is awesome? Not one person. I don’t really think we get clobbered or anything by this potential.  But that block is gaining strength in recent modeling…it’s not done trending/changing at all.  Modeling gonna struggle with that. 
 

Would you want it to look great now? Would you….DUDE?  Nobody is saying it’s gonna be a big snowstorm, but we have a long way to go until next Friday.
A couple days back it was in Detroit…And you were whining close the shades(even this morning)…lol as you always do.  
 

You’ve been wrong on the pattern change when you jumped off the train last week, and over the weekend. You didn’t heed the advice of some of the pros and experienced folks on here..who explained their reasoning with science. But you went with the Debbie’s as usual.   
 

I was wrong about close the shades? How much snow have you seen so far? 
 

scooter explained why this may not keep going in the correct direction. It’s great to see weenie snow maps at 300 hours, but let’s pump the brakes a bit 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is when everyone gets amped up and confused. Usually at the onset of a good pattern. 
All I said was that these visions of all snow and this thing keeping on moving offshore are not a lock and I stated  what needs work. I never said it couldn’t happen, but there is a difference between expecting it to happen like some are, and being somewhat objective and breaking down what needs to happen. I still feel this is a CNE and NNE deal, but I think we mentioned many times that it could become more wintry here and stated why. 
 

A lot of these threats are marginal to begin with on models. I’d definitely favor NNE until maybe Jan when climo becomes more favorable around here.

[Typhoon Tip]

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My guess is this does move Southeast, but then tries to come Northwest again. This is all I am saying.

What’s going to probably happen - and I agree by the way – is that as the mid-level forcing begins to concede to the NAO and comes east and south east …the surface low will initially start being modeled further north and west and inland …because that’s forcing is but then as we get closer the whole thing would then go back east again - Due to a combination of sensing the boundary layer resistance more clearly as it gets colder and closer in the model but also because the mid-level forcing is probably going to continue to crack tomorrow more so.

So it’s kind of like a sinusoidal correction

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

A lot of these threats are marginal to begin with on models. I’d definitely favor NNE until maybe Jan when climo becomes more favorable around here.

After next week we in the game. Hell much of SNE could be later next week if this were to go near or SE of ACK. I’m just not sold yet.  
 

But the fact we are even talking about this compared to a few days ago is pretty cool. Things have trended better for Sunday afternoon and night and also later next week for the time being.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I was wrong about close the shades? How much snow have you seen so far? 
 

scooter explained why this may not keep going in the correct direction. It’s great to see weenie snow maps at 300 hours, but let’s pump the brakes a bit 

You said close the shades for the rest of the month.  
 

Believe me, I’m not expecting a burial this month. Nor am I an “everything is all right”  person either.   But before we make blanket statements on either side of the fence, why don’t we see how things play out over the next few weeks?  
 

I agree..pump the brakes in both directions is a good idea. So fair enough. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What’s going to probably happen - and I agree by the way – is that as the mid-level forcing begins to concede to the NAO and comes east and south east …the surface low will initially start being modeled further north and west and inland …because that’s forcing is but then as we get closer the whole thing would then go back east again - Due to a combination of sensing the boundary layer resistance more clearly as it gets colder and closer in the model but also because the mid-level forcing is probably going to continue to crack tomorrow more so.

So it’s kind of like a sinusoidal correction

I know what you mean. Part of me hopes that this thing even if it does start is rain can sort of go back to Snow as the flow tips more to the Northeast with the mid levels passing south of us. Who knows.

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

spiking the football on day 8. good luck with your forecast 

Dudes calling warm 850’s and 950 temps from 7 days in advance. And self admitted on here .. he doesn’t even forecast anymore . He must be good !