Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Got snow in my NWS P&C forecast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 32 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: I made this post over in the NYC thread and wanted to share it here in case anyone finds this interesting, especially those with a good understanding of atmospheric physics may gleam something from this WRT current events: I’m all aboard Hunga Tonga having a hand in some of these unusual dynamics and volatility. I just saw this paper last night and finished reading through it, it appears initial observations underestimated the SO2 flux rather significantly (though still a lot less than Pinatubo). However, the enormous instantaneous injection of water vapor remains a major variable. Just wanted to share the paper for anyone who may be interested. It’s dense and technical but is extremely informative and touches on HTHH’s substantial atmospheric and potentially climatological impact: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00618-z Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: There are a number of different possible events being discussed in this thread. Tough to follow which ones being discussed. Especially on phones. There’s been a lot of x rated posts your young eyes shouldn’t see so keep scrolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 18z icon also juiced up a bit for Sunday night/Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Game is on mofo’s. We white 3 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 18z GFS coming in nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 On 12/6/2022 at 6:31 PM, Damage In Tolland said: A full winter month in danger of being completely lost . Worst freaking nightmare 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Game is on mofo’s. We white 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Game is on mofo’s. We white How many deep already and what’s the loli forecast? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 I'd forgotten how fun this place is when SNE is progged to get snow. You white, we wait. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 18z GFS coming in nicely Tamer than 12z run thou Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Very stable model 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 25 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: How many deep already and what’s the loli forecast? Just cracked 2nd. Strong though 8.8% Beer folks. It’s from The Veil brewery in Richmond, VA. It’s real and it’s spectacular Right now thinking 3-5 lolli 6 pike south and 1-3 north . How much weed this far? 2-3 handfuls? 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 I noticed that the mood here changes a lot, and the change lines up with what the OP gfs run looks like. I haven’t been on this board super long but have been a weenie for years, and what I learned is that the surface maps don’t matter all that much. It’s the large scale pattern that matters, I would rather see a bunch of whiffs and cutters with a favorable teleconnections than a bunch of blizzards with a raging positive NAO, positive EPO and negative PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: You don’t get it do you lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You don’t get it do you lol. what exactly am i missing? myself and a bunch of others have been persistent in saying that a favorable pattern would evolve after the 15th or so, got ridiculed for it by people worrying about absolutely nothing, and now everyone that was ridiculing is flipping back to the snow train on a whim. it's weird behavior 6 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: what exactly am i missing? myself and a bunch of others have been persistent in saying that a favorable pattern would evolve after the 15th or so, got ridiculed for it by people worrying about absolutely nothing, and now everyone that was ridiculing is flipping back to the snow train on a whim. it's weird behavior There's a lot of disturbing behavior on here. 2 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: what exactly am i missing? myself and a bunch of others have been persistent in saying that a favorable pattern would evolve after the 15th or so, got ridiculed for it by people worrying about absolutely nothing, and now everyone that was ridiculing is flipping back to the snow train on a whim. it's weird behavior 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's a lot of disturbing behavior on here. All you have to see, is what he posted above. Beer. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: what exactly am i missing? myself and a bunch of others have been persistent in saying that a favorable pattern would evolve after the 15th or so, got ridiculed for it by people worrying about absolutely nothing, and now everyone that was ridiculing is flipping back to the snow train on a whim. it's weird behavior Now you understand. Welcome to our world in SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Secondary getting earlier and earlier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Secondary getting earlier and earlier gfs caving to the better guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Def looking snowier this run for 12/16 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2022 Author Share Posted December 8, 2022 38 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: Don't forget the earliest one when he was "all in" before he was outie then innie..its like he's having emotional intercourse with winter. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Still too tucked for a lot of snow but closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Def looking snowier this run for 12/16 Local forecasts tonight have 48-50 Thursday - Saturday. Ryan is on vaca this week, but it’s laughable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Upper level thermals aren’t bad, looks like the rain snow line would be near the mass pike. It’s the gfs though so it will probably shift 1000 miles next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Local forecasts tonight have 48-50 Thursday - Saturday. Ryan is on vaca this week, but it’s laughable Thats bc verbatim models still spike 45-50 for a few hours.. Without the chief there its safest to just go with model output verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Primary gets pretty far north so you'll need the 50/50 like low to trend stronger and stick around longer otherwise any transfer will be too far north or inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's a lot of disturbing behavior on here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2022 Author Share Posted December 8, 2022 9 minutes ago, George001 said: Upper level thermals aren’t bad, looks like the rain snow line would be near the mass pike. It’s the gfs though so it will probably shift 1000 miles next run. N of that...warmest layer is prob between H7 and H8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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