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December 2022 Obs/Disc


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  On 12/8/2022 at 7:47 PM, CoastalWx said:

Long range to me looks to favor Rockies trough. Pretty cold look across Rockies into Midwest. Looks pretty chilly here, but the boundary is close by. This looks like SWFE and overrunning deals...maybe a redeveloper possibility type cstl?  My guess is not just snow, but perhaps various ptypes depending on location. Looks fun. 

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So current LR looks good And if the Rockies trough moves west Or East ...what’s that do

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  On 12/8/2022 at 7:43 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

I'm favoring redevelopment for this system with a block that strong as well as a deep ULL out in the Atlantic like that... the models should continue to correct. there are already some strong members near the Delmarva that likely deliver from CT northward

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1170400.thumb.png.e1bbd86dda3c4a2cefbc256e51ded2de.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-mslp_with_low_locs-1192000.thumb.png.b067fc960d5051a10c19aca0ab0d654c.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-mslp_with_low_locs-1235200.thumb.png.453aed3fc1496e230482495f69a936b8.png

 

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A little close for comfort IMBY (Coastal CT).

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  On 12/8/2022 at 7:47 PM, CoastalWx said:

Long range to me looks to favor Rockies trough. Pretty cold look across Rockies into Midwest. Looks pretty chilly here, but the boundary is close by. This looks like SWFE and overrunning deals...maybe a redeveloper possibility type cstl?  My guess is not just snow, but perhaps various ptypes depending on location. Looks fun. 

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Kev might get his ice storm

 

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I made this post over in the NYC thread and wanted to share it here in case anyone finds this interesting, especially those with a good understanding of atmospheric physics may gleam something from this WRT current events:

I’m all aboard Hunga Tonga having a hand in some of these unusual dynamics and volatility. I just saw this paper last night and finished reading through it, it appears initial observations underestimated the SO2 flux rather significantly (though still a lot less than Pinatubo). However, the enormous instantaneous injection of water vapor remains a major variable. 

Just wanted to share the paper for anyone who may be interested. It’s dense and technical but is extremely informative and touches on HTHH’s substantial atmospheric and potentially climatological impact:

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