SnoSki14 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If people can't recognize the trend then it's on them. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Anyways, getting ahead. At least the tables are turning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Deep erly flow hurts a bit in Dec. Would probably be awesome in many areas a month from now. I’m starting to lean like you mentioned yesterday though that CF materializes. that kind of cold weighted air in Maine once we establish the northeast flow and then if the flow tries to go east that’s going to create a thermal interface there; the wind will actually back probably more north towards Fitchburg while ENE wind at Logan in that scenario I mean that might be exaggerating that something like that tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I guess I'd feel better if we weren't teetering at 0-1C at 850 and need a little wetbulbing to get it cooler. At least verbatim. We never had that parent low in the Midwest in 92. That helps warm it a tad. Pretty warm up to H7 too. Maybe some H75-8 tongue action? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I guess I'd feel better if we weren't teetering at 0-1C at 850 and need a little wetbulbing to get it cooler. At least verbatim. We never had that parent low in the Midwest in 92. That helps warm it a tad. It will generate its own cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 EPS may have some juicy members for Sunday based on the mean. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2022 Author Share Posted December 8, 2022 Just now, moneypitmike said: It will generate its own cold. And if it doesn't, then George will generate for it. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Good lord I love it when a plan comes together. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 45 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: And it may even end up with more than that…. personally as a “meteorological purist“ I haven’t been a particularly huge fan of the Southwest flow even ( since I lost weight – j/k…) terminology since its inception back whence. I mean if a storm is generating a Miller B, it’s a tilted Vortx in the vertical with a primary escaping through the eastern lakes …that’s southwest flow but cyclogen taking over - that’s a Miller b. I mean there’s a reason why thats codified and not the other thing. be that as it may …I get what it means to call it a Southwest event. And I don’t entirely disagree with his essence either so I’m on the fence with the term really Hell yeah it’s turning into a Miller B! I noticed on the models there is 2 or even 3 lows so I figured it must be a Miller B. An swfe has only one low right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2022 Author Share Posted December 8, 2022 That run still cuts the low over KCON....not happening with that block. We aren't done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 6 minutes ago, George001 said: Hell yeah it’s turning into a Miller B! I noticed on the models there is 2 or even 3 lows so I figured it must be a Miller B. An swfe has only one low right? I don’t know what the SWFE rules are George. Like Ray intimated… it’s really based upon shared metrics in either direction. I like that. Maybe that in itself is the SWFE definition that best fits Like everything in this field that’s event related there’s always shared metrics. Like hybrid cyclones for example? Same idea in principal just a different subject matter. It’s just a matter of how much or little it means in either direction. I will say that there’s no such thing as a pure Southwest FE because if it is, it overwhelms the cold air and turns around too quick to be significant enough so you have to have at least some kind of a meso involved so there’s your shared metrics right there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS may have some juicy members for Sunday based on the mean. Don't have individual members yet, but that's a decent QPF mean. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 OK starting to come in....first one after the control run was pretty fun 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Once the models "See" the airmass better as we get closer, I'm sure we can finagle a Dec '92 type gradient over E MA. Even if it starts as rain, If the more recent guidance has the right idea of the secondary redevelopment (Miller b) occurring off the Jersey shore, then the low has plenty of time to deepen to the 980s or even 970s before it gets to our latitude. The dynamical cooling in my opinion will lead to this being snow for even coastal areas. There was a lot of talk about a big dog with the upcoming pattern before it got delayed, could this be it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: OK starting to come in....first one after the control run was pretty fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: That looks like Kgay lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If people can't recognize the trend then it's on them. I would look at ensembles instead at this juncture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2022 Author Share Posted December 8, 2022 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Don't have individual members yet, but that's a decent QPF mean. I like how it careens se until it hits my latitude, then levels ene. Chef's kiss porker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Pants down and thuds audible from bottom of the desks on the 12z runs. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pants down and thuds audible from bottom of the desks on the 12z runs. You paint a picture with a pen like Norman Mailer, my friend 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Just now, Henry's Weather said: You paint a picture with a pen like Norman Mailer, my friend I'm all about the visuals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 EPS on 12/16 looks pretty good....a lot of members SE of the OP 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 41 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: It will generate its own cold. Post of the day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: OK starting to come in....first one after the control run was pretty fun Winner wolf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 There are a number of different possible events being discussed in this thread. Tough to follow which ones being discussed. Especially on phones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS on 12/16 looks pretty good....a lot of members SE of the OP I'm favoring redevelopment for this system with a block that strong as well as a deep ULL out in the Atlantic like that... the models should continue to correct. there are already some strong members near the Delmarva that likely deliver from CT northward 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Long range to me looks to favor Rockies trough. Pretty cold look across Rockies into Midwest. Looks pretty chilly here, but the boundary is close by. This looks like SWFE and overrunning deals...maybe a redeveloper possibility type cstl? My guess is not just snow, but perhaps various ptypes depending on location. Looks fun. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2022 Author Share Posted December 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Long range to me looks to favor Rockies trough. Pretty cold look across Rockies into Midwest. Looks pretty chilly here, but the boundary is close by. This looks like SWFE and overrunning deals...maybe a redeveloper possibility type cstl? My guess is not just snow, but perhaps various ptypes depending on location. Looks fun. Bingo....December in a nutshell. Juggernaut event incoming for January...for someone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I'm favoring redevelopment for this system with a block that strong as well as a deep ULL out in the Atlantic like that... the models should continue to correct. there are already some strong members near the Delmarva that likely deliver from CT northward Scatter shot today will see how it looks Sat For Monday and Wednesday for next weekend. Epic blocking 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Bingo....December in a nutshell. Juggernaut event incoming for January...for someone. Oh before then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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