ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Still cutterish on the GFS. Might never warm sector though in interior on that run. GGEM had a decent shot of ice over interior on that system. Still need a little more to get that one snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Let’s turn that 2nd one into an icestorm. Get some meat into the “potential “ pack 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Pattern looks great after the cutter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: to put into further perspective how bad of a miss this is, here are the changes by day 10: the stronger 50/50 leads to the cutter getting shunted slightly south, which leads to WAA right into the Davis Strait that amplifies blocking throughout the pole. I think the reason for the GEFS's crappy presentation before was due to the complete mishandling of this feature That's why I'm just gonna stick to the 5 day on op and no more than 7 on ensembles The evolution of the system on the 12th will play a role in the following systems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What type might that be Dr? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 That's a risk/reward setup for the 11/12th. Too much confluence and it gets squashed S, too little and we risk mixed bag of precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Ideally we want the GFS to be less ridgey in the southeast after day 10, especially south of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 absolutely comical for one model cycle. this is why we were saying not to worry for the 15th onward. the models are adjusting to the favorable base state 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: That's a risk/reward setup for the 11/12th. Too much confluence and it gets squashed S, too little and we risk mixed bag of precip. Which do you see being more likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Might never warm sector though in interior on that run. GGEM had a decent shot of ice over interior on that system. Still need a little more to get that one snowier. GEFS have a nice SWFE look, especially across the interior. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: absolutely comical for one model cycle. this is why we were saying not to worry for the 15th onward. the models are adjusting to the favorable base state All model guidance have shifted quite a bit, but I think the overall sentiment has been post 14-15 for awhile. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Which do you see being more likely I would say squashed is more likely, but the way guidance has been... stay tuned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS have a nice SWFE look, especially across the interior. This storm is going to hit a road block with the blocking. Not your typical SWFE 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Vanilla coming 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Which do you see being more likely I think it's close enough to impact SNE. Details to be ironed out on thermal profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Looks like a mixed bag of crap. But looking better than yesterday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This storm is going to hit a road block with the blocking. Not your typical SWFE I still think it’s going to turn into a Miller B. Probably favors CNE and NNE though. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: It's our bread and butter. I'm thinking 40-60% of what you and I get for annual snowfall comes from them. But the term itself is really just an AmWx (and Eastern before that) thing yeah I was going to say thought I remembered that from the Eastern days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 54/52 with misery mist. This weather is a few weeks early. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Feels like Xmas eve 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Looks like Kevin put some WD40 on the tipper again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Right on the money with 1.5-175” thruout town on that map 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Right on the money with 1.5-175” thruout town on that map Not reading maps correctly. Not surprised. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Game on. Can kicking complete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Game on. Can kicking complete Train needs fixing. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like Kevin put some WD40 on the tipper again. What map is that from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just now, Modfan2 said: What map is that from? Wundermap. From Wunderground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not reading maps correctly. Not surprised. It’s a Davis . It’s accurate . I’m very close to Bald Hill as you know having been here . What do the three other gauges in S Wey measure so you can report your total? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Do we need an 11/12 storm thread? This is getting confusing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s a Davis . It’s accurate . I’m very close to Bald Hill as you know having been here . What do the three other gauges in S Wey measure so you can report your total? The data is in front of you. Your tipper getting to tipsy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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