UnitedWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Some of you still look at blocking as the be all, end all of winter weather. It's not. Look what happened back in was it 2010? Sorry, I don't have Wills weather encyclopedia brain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Doesn’t it seem odd that modeling is showing two big storms within 3 days of each other next week? That doesn’t seem realistic. I wonder if we see things morph into one longer duration storm ptype and track TBD From your lips to God's ears. I would love to have a long duration snow storm. We haven't seen one of those in quite a while. But I'll take two separate ones too, I don't want to be too greedy lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Btw .. we have gotten 1.35 so far. There is supposed to be another round this afternoon..so I'm sure I will add to my total. Also, both are METs in Connecticut. Are talking about the storm chance for Sunday into Monday. They said it kind of appeared out of nowhere. As far as the one dropping down from the Great lakes. It's Wednesday, so let's hope it stays on the maps. It's kind of exciting to see that the Canadian still has it in a pretty similar area as it had it for the last many runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 6z EPS is pretty close to a good solution on the 12th. That H5 low is pretty far north which to me may mean the qpf shield would be as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 1.73” so far 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 1.73” so far Do me a favor and please stay safe. It’s dangerous out there. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s here. But in general everyone overrates the nao. Yes it’s good for biggies etc., but typically overhyped. In New England we can do fine without it. It does allow you to get away with certain things when the Pacific sucks. Blocking typically forces lows under us. Yeah, the NAO blocks are most useful when the PAC is bad. IF 12/12 and 12/15 work out, it will be because of the NAO....the bad PAC would otherwise send both systems into James Bay....and 12/15 still might do that, we'll see. The LR looks nice because even though the steroid block is gone, the NAO is still negative. Lots of weakness up there, which helps out some...esp with a more favorable PAC. I don't think we're going to get a +PNA though like some were hoping...at least not prior to Xmas IMHO. It looks to me like still a -PNA but it is split flow with the -EPO....that, combined with a weak -NAO, is pretty nice. You don' have this massively phased trough out west due to split flow....so even if troughs dig into southern CA, you still have the northern stream coming down from NW Canada/AK and then the weak -NAO keeping heights in check over far SE Canada. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6z EPS is pretty close to a good solution on the 12th. That H5 low is pretty far north which to me may mean the qpf shield would be as well. Def getting closer but most are still a miss. Keep it trending though. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 55 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: South is more likely than north given blocking Could also end up being a shredder Sure. Maybe. I mean the axis for the block on the 12th is more toward Iceland, but there's a ridge extension down into the US with the s/w in question kinda undercutting it. Then you have a potent little 60/60 ULL that cuts through the block and slowly meanders just to our NE. So there's still some subtle features to iron out. A little less ridging to the north or a stronger s/w and it wouldn't be too difficult for CNE to steal. Odds are obviously against it though. I'm only expecting flurries at best with all of that dry air in the mid levels trying to advect in from the NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Def getting closer but most are still a miss. Keep it trending though. Check out the s/w. Pretty far north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 13 hours ago, CoastalWx said: This place is insane lol I see you've lost the handle on managing the asylum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Check out the s/w. Pretty far north. Yes and we want it north since it gets squeezed ESE pretty quickly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes and we want it north since it gets squeezed ESE pretty quickly. s/w hits a brick wall. Will give us something to discuss Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just really have to watch this feature here for confluence. One thing models did horribly last year (And year prior I believe) was the handling of confluence across southeast Canada 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: s/w hits a brick wall. Will give us something to discuss Saturday. Besides beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah, the NAO blocks are most useful when the PAC is bad. IF 12/12 and 12/15 work out, it will be because of the NAO....the bad PAC would otherwise send both systems into James Bay....and 12/15 still might do that, we'll see. The LR looks nice because even though the steroid block is gone, the NAO is still negative. Lots of weakness up there, which helps out some...esp with a more favorable PAC. I don't think we're going to get a +PNA though like some were hoping...at least not prior to Xmas IMHO. It looks to me like still a -PNA but it is split flow with the -EPO....that, combined with a weak -NAO, is pretty nice. You don' have this massively phased trough out west due to split flow....so even if troughs dig into southern CA, you still have the northern stream coming down from NW Canada/AK and then the weak -NAO keeping heights in check over far SE Canada. Up here in particular, we hear you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Def getting closer but most are still a miss. Keep it trending though. Looks like the lean is left, and does the block slow it down and pull it more north, or is that the next storm? I have a memory of the modelled retrograder from a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Besides beer Edibles too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 49 degrees, good consistent wind gusts, breaks of sun...had a huge rainbow in the back yard. I'll take any help I can get with the heating bills- last winter up here we had a ridiculous stretch of cold weather- a long string of at least -20 for lows. -30s for lows was common. I think stations up here and north were hitting the -40s at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Edibles too How many mgs for you for a good long buzz? 15 MG for me. Tinctures are awesome. Definitely helps with my severe arthritis. Look forward to seeing you Bob, been a minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: 49 degrees, good consistent wind gusts, breaks of sun...had a huge rainbow in the back yard. I'll take any help I can get with the heating bills- last winter up here we had a ridiculous stretch of cold weather- a long string of at least -20 for lows. -30s for lows was common. I think stations up here and north were hitting the -40s at times. Love those crackling snot freezing nights with diamond dust falling on a full moon lit landscape. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah, the NAO blocks are most useful when the PAC is bad. IF 12/12 and 12/15 work out, it will be because of the NAO....the bad PAC would otherwise send both systems into James Bay....and 12/15 still might do that, we'll see. The LR looks nice because even though the steroid block is gone, the NAO is still negative. Lots of weakness up there, which helps out some...esp with a more favorable PAC. I don't think we're going to get a +PNA though like some were hoping...at least not prior to Xmas IMHO. It looks to me like still a -PNA but it is split flow with the -EPO....that, combined with a weak -NAO, is pretty nice. You don' have this massively phased trough out west due to split flow....so even if troughs dig into southern CA, you still have the northern stream coming down from NW Canada/AK and then the weak -NAO keeping heights in check over far SE Canada. Agree on that...been stressing that all along. But RNA with split flow -EPO and neg NAO is an absolutely delicious pattern for us, nonetheless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Love those crackling snot freezing nights with diamond dust falling on a full moon lit landscape. Omg, the house would just start popping every night. Some were really loud and intense. The snow would get really dry and squeaky and the inside of your nose would just freeze up instantly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Just a friendly reminder If anyone has faith in the LR look of the paicific I would suggest they step away from the pipe +PNA January...take it to the bank. Smoke that. Watch and wait. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: How many mgs for you for a good long buzz? 15 MG for me. Tinctures are awesome. Definitely helps with my severe arthritis. Look forward to seeing you Bob, been a minute 10mg does it for me. Helps my anxiety. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 16 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Edibles too The best. Why do you think I make such painful posts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Love those crackling snot freezing nights with diamond dust falling on a full moon lit landscape. I like it with snow, but I have no use for that with cracked earth underfoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 10mg does it for me. Helps my anxiety. It can be rather enjoyable to put back half a dispensary choc bar 50mg 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, TalcottWx said: It can be rather enjoyable to put back half a dispensary choc bar 50mg Now I know why your posts have been strange lately. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just now, TalcottWx said: It can be rather enjoyable to put back half a dispensary choc bar 50mg It can be rather enjoyable to see you at the gtg on Saturday, but the wife block may shear out your shortwave. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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