STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 21 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: I am wondering if maybe, perhaps, just a little, we let the negative nancys get to us and we should all know better???? Lol I’ve been posting objectively I’m just looking for something to track that isn’t rains past Stowe VT. I don’t have a high bar My biggest concern is wether you will be able to make it to the GTG - the money line is +325, so the sharpes say no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just a friendly reminder If anyone has faith in the LR look of the paicific I would suggest they step away from the pipe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 47 and dank here this morning. Pouring rain approaching .90. Interesting little shifts on the models last night. And I can here it now if the CMC ends up somehow close to right with regards to Monday... we won't here the end of it for the entire season from certain someones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Just a friendly reminder If anyone has faith in the LR look of the paicific I would suggest they step away from the pipe I thought they all switched to edibles... and the problem still exists. That's how pervasive their weather dysphoria is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 For the 12’th 6z GEFS May look a bit better then 0z GEFS but one problem is 0z GEFS didn’t look remotely like the 0z op storm run looking at the GEPS they didn’t seem to support the OP that well , or to put it this way the OP looks like it would have been the best ens member gonna need things to come around much more , they did move in the right direction it seems most ens guidance currently has a Low well SE of us , it’s made strides from no storm to a storm but the track on ENS needs another 100 miles NW I think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 16 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Lol I’ve been posting objectively I’m just looking for something to track that isn’t rains past Stowe VT. I don’t have a high bar My biggest concern is wether you will be able to make it to the GTG - the money line is +325, so the sharpes say no Definitely not calling you out, to clarify. The odds are stacked against me for sure. But I am hoping James White picks it up in the second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 We watch the 12th. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 hours ago, TalcottWx said: 0.40 of rain 55/54 I was stuck at 44F until about 930P, when temps shot up ten degrees and gusts kicked up. Nasty drive into work this morning. What rain gauge are you using? I looked at two on Wxlink in Simsbury and both are over 1.20” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 25 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: For the 12’th 6z GEFS May look a bit better then 0z GEFS but one problem is 0z GEFS didn’t look remotely like the 0z op storm run looking at the GEPS they didn’t seem to support the OP that well , or to put it this way the OP looks like it would have been the best ens member gonna need things to come around much more , they did move in the right direction it seems most ens guidance currently has a Low well SE of us , it’s made strides from no storm to a storm but the track on ENS needs another 100 miles NW I think Very strong upper level vorticity means at minimum measurable hopefully slows down and dumps more. First real threat of the season. Then we watch for a SWFE. Let's keep that 1048 HP in place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: What rain gauge are you using? I looked at two on Wxlink in Simsbury and both are over 1.20” It must be trash. I need to just get an old school one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We watch the 12th. Yeah, it's trying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 0.46" and 50F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Trend overnight for 12/12 was pretty strong….cross-guidance sig on that. I’d like to see another one at 12z today though before taking it a bit more seriously. There’s def some potential there though. Due to the blocked flow, something forming and sliding to our south could be somewhat slow moving. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 EPS has a lot more members that are snowy for 12/14-15 than 12z fwiw…but it’s pretty clear that the 12/12 evolution is going to affect that storm. A deeper 12/12 system seems to help suppress 12/14-15 more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Doesn’t it seem odd that modeling is showing two big storms within 3 days of each other next week? That doesn’t seem realistic. I wonder if we see things morph into one longer duration storm ptype and track TBD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Doesn’t it seem odd that modeling is showing two big storms within 3 days of each other next week? That doesn’t seem realistic. I wonder if we see things morph into one longer duration storm ptype and track TBD 2-3 days is plenty of time between storms. It would be more unusual if it was under 36 hours between them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 2-3 days is plenty of time between storms. It would be more unusual if it was under 36 hours between them. But I was thinking more along lines like if Monday even happens and lingers into Tuesday .. the next one is shown to hit Wednesday. Just seemed awfully close together . Chaotic for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What rain gauge are you using? I looked at two on Wxlink in Simsbury and both are over 1.20” Just some cheap POS from the jungle website ... I need to upgrade! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: But I was thinking more along lines like if Monday even happens and lingers into Tuesday .. the next one is shown to hit Wednesday. Just seemed awfully close together . Chaotic for sure It‘s Sunday lingering into Monday… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 48/ .70" overnight, light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Yet another snow championship for BDR. I feel sorry for you guys in CNE and NNE: 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 8 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Yet another snow championship for BDR. I feel sorry for you guys in CNE and NNE: Still plenty of time to steal it. 3 3 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: Still plenty of time to steal it. Real shit, dendrite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 15 minutes ago, dendrite said: Still plenty of time to steal it. South is more likely than north given blocking Could also end up being a shredder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We watch the 12th. 41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Trend overnight for 12/12 was pretty strong….cross-guidance sig on that. I’d like to see another one at 12z today though before taking it a bit more seriously. There’s def some potential there though. Due to the blocked flow, something forming and sliding to our south could be somewhat slow moving. You guys never wavered. Still within 10-15 day range. Some said blocking was gone yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, TalcottWx said: You guys never wavered. Still within 10-15 day range. Some said blocking was gone yesterday. It goes away after day 11 or so. Pacific driving the bus and takes over after that time. Still some small ridging in Greenland but the -NAO is about gone then. Speaking of, still some big run to run changes but the overall theme is a good look for us imo. Is it textbook? No…..but I’ll take it. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS has a lot more members that are snowy for 12/14-15 than 12z fwiw…but it’s pretty clear that the 12/12 evolution is going to affect that storm. A deeper 12/12 system seems to help suppress 12/14-15 more. Hopefully both don’t do just enough to be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: You guys never wavered. Still within 10-15 day range. Some said blocking was gone yesterday. It is gone though. Or will be by the time we actually get a favorable look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It is gone though. Or will be by the time we actually get a favorable look. It’s here. But in general everyone overrates the nao. Yes it’s good for biggies etc., but typically overhyped. In New England we can do fine without it. It does allow you to get away with certain things when the Pacific sucks. Blocking typically forces lows under us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It is gone though. Or will be by the time we actually get a favorable look. Entering a more favorable climo now. All things considered, setup is good. Some of our biggest storms have been progressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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