December 2022 Obs/Disc

[dendrite]

I wish I lived at H5 and d10.

[ORH_wxman]

23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lemme get it straight... people are hemming and hawing about the GEFS being crappy, and as soon as it begins to look ten times better out west, the mood gets worse? 

this is what the complaints are about. i mean, come on

and yes, it's moving forward in time. this is right after the cutter next week

Yeah I mentioned that to Scott earlier on how the GEFS looks finally good out west and it’s not way out in total clown range anymore. It’s inside of 10 days now on the clear improvement. First time we’ve had decent agreement and also having it get closer inside of d10. 
 

I also am not sure why everyone seems to be Writing off the threats next week. Except Tip….I know they are fairly low probability but they aren’t total lottery odds. There’s a chance we get something out of either. 
 

I think the expectations got so built up when the models were showing insane look at the end of November. 

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I wish I lived at H5 and d10.

Real shit, dendrite

[alex]

32 minutes ago, weathafella said:

They’re open-saw them this past weekend but nice try albeit feeble.

Yep, been open daily for a while and it’s actually been pretty nice except for the pouring rain lol. Amazing what resorts can do even in crappy patterns these days. Besides, ski resorts NEVER make money until the holiday season. There could be 6 feet of snow and still very few skiers this time of the year. Same with April. 

[Hoth]

Gee, wonder what's going on at American?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I hope the Canadian is still on the sauce at 0z 

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Real shit, dendrite

Kidding aside…we tend to have 3 different things going on at once. We have people here looking for sensible weather, those that are looking for specific events to track in the short/med range, and then those that are trying to sniff out the LR pattern. It’s like comparing climatology and meteorology…they’re intertwined, but still different.

I mingle with the LR stuff sometimes, but it’s not my passion. I prefer tracking imminent events and then the observing/nowcasting aspect. I respect those that are into the d10-15+ analyses and I know enough that it’s a different beast. Favorable patterns don’t always produce winners and sometimes a weaker pattern pulls off a title. The 2007 and 2001 Pats are good examples.

So we laugh, we cry, and we troll, but I think most of us here understand the difficulties and challenges with the differing forecasting periods.

[#NoPoles]

Holy crap, the weather Channel is now offered on Hulu Live

Weeeeeeee!!!!!

[Snowcrazed71]

21 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I hope the Canadian is still on the sauce at 0z 

It's not happening.

Okay, I should be more optimistic. It's 99.9% not happening. Hehe

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He reaches into his bag of personalities and out comes Defense Mechanism Debra....All in Al will be back by the holidays.

Deflection Danny stepping on the gas pedal as Projection Paul rides shotgun.

“I’m not disappointed or upset, but I really feel for this guy over here.  He must be devastated.”

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Deflection Danny stepping on the gas pedal as Projection Paul rides shotgun.

 

[George001]

5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

It's not happening.

Okay, I should be more optimistic. It's 99.9% not happening. Hehe

It’s more likely than the “upgraded” gfs being right. The EPS has a signal for that storm as well. Is there by any chance a way to access the old versions of the GFS? The GFS was half decent a few years ago but has been getting worse with every upgrade.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Deflection Danny stepping on the gas pedal as Projection Paul rides shotgun.

“I’m not disappointed or upset, but I really feel for this guy over here.  He must be devastated.”

....And the crowd in Tolland goes wild....."D-FENCE.....D-FENCE----D-FENCE"

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

It’s almost like they color coded the ski areas there. Funny how they preserve their snow base depths like that.  Depth of 8” yesterday evening, depth of 8” this evening in one of the pink areas.  Not ideal by any means but seen it before, will see it again.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

2 hours ago, 78Blizzard said:

Let's add the Tonga January 2022 volcano eruption to the theories for this weird pattern. The volcano was found to have injected an immense plume of water vapor (including ice) and ash into the Earth’s stratosphere and into the mesosphere, about 35 miles high. We don't yet know the ongoing impact on the global climate from this big eruption.  It did take place in the southern hemisphere so the effects on the northern hemisphere's climate would probably be delayed.  Anomalous cold and snow spilled into Australia and South America during the winter season that recently ended, with many records being shattered.

Just saying...

 

HTHH did not inject the stratosphere with the sulfur loading typical of an eruption this size. It injected about 1/40th the sulfur of Pinatubo (a similar sized but more traditionally magmatic and gassy large eruption), but as you mentioned, injected a massive amount of water vapor. Apparently 1/10th of the total that normally resides up there was added via this eruption.

Pinatubo caused jet stream disturbances in addition to significant cold anomalies for several years after 1991, but the traditional process for accomplishing that is via sulfur aerosols. HTHH injected more water vapor than anything else in the satellite era. The effect will be... ? Analyzed in retrospect most likely.

Put me down, however, for wishing HTHH was a more traditional large eruption with a larger sulfur flux. But I absolutely agree with and believe there will be an additional 'chaos' element in the climate system for a couple years due to this event.

[Sled]

Someone make it snow please

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Does Funky Murphys have a band Saturday . You think they will take a request 

 

 

[Snowcrazed71]

Is it me or is the GFS actually been correct with it's forecast as far as the pattern keeping the east warmer and snowless,?

[Damage In Tolland]

22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s almost like they color coded the ski areas there. Funny how they preserve their snow base depths like that.  Depth of 8” yesterday evening, depth of 8” this evening in one of the pink areas.  Not ideal by any means but seen it before, will see it again.

 

 

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Is it me or is the GFS actually been correct with it's forecast as far as the pattern keeping the east warmer and snowless,?

It has. It’s been more -PNA and having a better handle. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Kidding aside…we tend to have 3 different things going on at once. We have people here looking for sensible weather, those that are looking for specific events to track in the short/med range, and then those that are trying to sniff out the LR pattern. It’s like comparing climatology and meteorology…they’re intertwined, but still different.

I mingle with the LR stuff sometimes, but it’s not my passion. I prefer tracking imminent events and then the observing/nowcasting aspect. I respect those that are into the d10-15+ analyses and I know enough that it’s a different beast. Favorable patterns don’t always produce winners and sometimes a weaker pattern pulls off a title. The 2007 and 2001 Pats are good examples.

So we laugh, we cry, and we troll, but I think most of us here understand the difficulties and challenges with the differing forecasting periods.

This pretty much sums it up.

I do think it’s a bit disingenuous though to be carrying on like nothing has changed, and people complaining are crazy.

The good look is pushed back at least 10 days, more likely 2 weeks. And if it gets good, it’s going to be because of a completely different reason than originally modeled/forecasted.

Shit happens, and folks laying out their thoughts for the long range is awesome, and we all know it’s essentially a crapshoot at that lead. I just don’t know why we have to do the gaslighting stuff. It’s okay for it to not be the same as it was a week ago, that’s just reality. Nobody is being held to a forecast or discussion weeks in advance lol. We have the best Mets in the business here, and even they know the long range stuff is a coin flip.

[Snowcrazed71]

The other crazy thing is every time I look at the forecast from our local meteorologists, if all been saying every week for the last few weeks  " looks like it's going to be colder soon " or " looks like the pattern change is finally starting to happen ". But every time we get to the next week coming, the temperatures go back up into the 40s to near 50 again. Yes, it's only the sixth of December, but not a very good pattern shaping up. Disappointed, Yes. Defeated, no. One of these winters will have a very classic winter again..... And hopefully I'll be alive to see it lol. 

And I know it's only December 6th. I also know that January could turn out to be a great month, and February can turn out to be a great month, and March could turn out to be a great month. So it's only just begun.

I guess like everyone else on here, I really got caught up in the pattern. Pattern it's going to change and be an amazing December to remember. Just not too sure now that's going to happen. One huge mega snow storm will make up for all of this. I guarantee that

 

 

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, Sled said:

Someone make it snow please

 

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Sled said:

Someone make it snow please

 

[Spanks45]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Mood flakes at least...still far enough out to bring some flakes into the area

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This pretty much sums it up.

I do think it’s a bit disingenuous though to be carrying on like nothing has changed, and people complaining are crazy.

The good look is pushed back at least 10 days, more likely 2 weeks. And if it gets good, it’s going to be because of a completely different reason than originally modeled/forecasted.

Shit happens, and folks laying out their thoughts for the long range is awesome, and we all know it’s essentially a crapshoot at that lead. I just don’t know why we have to do the gaslighting stuff. It’s okay for it to not be the same as it was a week ago, that’s just reality. Nobody is being held to a forecast or discussion weeks in advance lol. We have the best Mets in the business here, and even they know the long range stuff is a coin flip.

I like being held to forecasts weeks in advance...its fun...at least when it's just a toy rather than a livelihood. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Guys you might get that anyway if/when that long cold llv jet slipping WSW sets up. Raw with gray grits or even some freezing drizzle from time to time Sat+
That kind of condition is quite likely with 1050mb park N of Maine. I’m actually expecting a bipolar mood swing violently the other direction by mere sight of flurries from OES them days. heh. 

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

Holy crap, the weather Channel is now offered on Hulu Live

Weeeeeeee!!!!!

Not offered on Youtube TV-took me a year to realize it wasn't there lol

[powderfreak]

20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Guys you might get that anyway if/when that long cold llv jet slipping WSW sets up. Raw with gray grits or even some freezing drizzle from time to time Sat+
That kind of condition is quite likely with 1050mb park N of Maine. I’m actually expecting a bipolar mood swing violently the other direction by mere sight of flurries from OES them days. heh. 

Everyone has been focused on a real snow, but that OE signal of a persistent pulsing band feeding into E.MA is very interesting meso-scale stuff.  The moment some localized fake mesoscale precip falls semi-frozen, and lands on the coastal plain,  it’ll be a fun diversion from the long range discussion. I’ve brought it up on the QPF outputs but the mere signal in models on these mesoscale things that make sense, it can be fun meteorology.

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Everyone has been focused on a real snow, but that OE signal of a persistent pulsing band feeding into E.MA is very interesting meso-scale stuff.  The moment some localized fake mesoscale precip falls semi-frozen, and lands on the coastal plain,  it’ll be a fun diversion from the long range discussion. I’ve brought it up on the QPF outputs but the mere signal in models on these mesoscale things that make sense, it can be fun meteorology.

I know … the interpretation of the GFS synoptic charts without even looking at the sounding is a slam dunk saturated layer/low growth look … again freezing drizzle/grits is an option.  As is typically the case the 2-meter is steadily cooling as phase nears in time.  It’s 536dm thickness with ENE sustained polar air collecting GOM steam 

No consideration. Just a low grade warfare  between trolls vs futile efforts to explain heh. It’s all right though… It has an entertainment value to it lol