December 2022 Obs/Disc

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro gonna be ugly for 14th. No surprise there.

Who cares what it has 

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro gonna be ugly for 14th. No surprise there.

Yeah that’s a rough one.  Same as GFS.

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that’s a rough one.  Same as GFS.

It depends on how the 12th system evolves. Still a little too make any determinations

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that’s a rough one.  Same as GFS.

Don’t think we avoid that one unless h5 changes significantly 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Screamin' southerly 

[Snowcrazed71]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who cares what it has 

Date I say you were on to something...uugghh ( I hate to admit it ). 

 Hopefully we do see some changes before Christmas. If not... Other than being disappointed.... Winter is not lost ( I mean the first official day isn't until the 21st anyhow ). It just feels like forever because it's freaks have been at this since late October..lol

 

[SnoSki14]

Pacific improves on Euro too. Let's hope that continues 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who cares what it has 

Seriously

Op runs are changing every run 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that’s a rough one.  Same as GFS.

Thankfully we can ignore it!

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Seriously

Op runs are changing every run 

This hasn't changed from rain in NYC for days now. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thankfully we can ignore it!

we should ignore the model with the highest skill score for the one that got "upgraded" for worse results

[George001]

I’ve noticed the entire evolution has slowed down. The 10th became the 12th and the 13th became the 15th. That’s a pretty big change. The 15th looks bad right now, but it’s still far enough away that there is time for it to change. The Canadian shows that the first threat shouldn’t be overlooked either, it has a slow moving Miller B for the 12th. The H5 pattern argues against a cutter, due to the strong -NAO. Just yesterday the models had a Miller B for the 2nd threat so I wouldn’t give up on that.

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

around 30 here but to bad no other model shows it.. models are a mess

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thankfully we can ignore it!

lol… “ignore model B and follow model A.”

”Model B has same solution as model A.”

”Ignore both and go with model C.”

[WxWatcher007]

Always pick the model with the least snow and hold onto it for dear life. 

Can’t be disappointed if you always expect the worst.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

24 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that’s a rough one.  Same as GFS.

Serious question and not trolling but how many straight cutters would that be for Stowe (if 12’th is a non storm ) 

6 or 7 ?  That is a feat 

[George001]

I’m not gonna ignore the Canadian. It is close enough to the event and has been much more consistent in showing something (not as extreme as today’s run obviously). In my opinion it is on to something, now I’m not expecting 15 inches of snow for my area and 2 feet+ inland, but a toned down version of that is very realistic.

[CoastalWx]

EPS develops the 12th well offshore, but I still would keep an eye on it. It would not take much for some widespread -SN.

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’ve noticed the entire evolution has slowed down. The 10th became the 12th and the 13th became the 15th. That’s a pretty big change. The 15th looks bad right now, but it’s still far enough away that there is time for it to change. The Canadian shows that the first threat shouldn’t be overlooked either, it has a slow moving Miller B for the 12th. The H5 pattern argues against a cutter, due to the strong -NAO. Just yesterday the models had a Miller B for the 2nd threat so I wouldn’t give up on that.

I thought it was the other way around. 
- it’s hard to keep track with the Pacific inconsistencies.  

But NAO handling’s been shaky th e last day and half and the guidance is trying to speed accordingly. 
 

 

[Snowcrazed71]

6 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’ve noticed the entire evolution has slowed down. The 10th became the 12th and the 13th became the 15th. That’s a pretty big change. The 15th looks bad right now, but it’s still far enough away that there is time for it to change. The Canadian shows that the first threat shouldn’t be overlooked either, it has a slow moving Miller B for the 12th. The H5 pattern argues against a cutter, due to the strong -NAO. Just yesterday the models had a Miller B for the 2nd threat so I wouldn’t give up on that.

Oh George.... I love your enthusiasm ( and I wish you were correct ). But, although I always appreciate your optimism and positive take on everything ( well everything Snow and Wintry ), I think you should pull back a bit ... Otherwise you are going to be very disappointed. 

Trust me, as a seasoned Weather weenie, I know when and how to pull back my excitement.  I've been around this block MANY times ( and trust me..I wish I was wrong and you were right )... But it's just not going to happen the way you are hoping...at least not yet. 

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This hasn't changed from rain in NYC for days now. 

How can you change the ops seriously ?

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Serious question and not trolling but how many straight cutters would that be for Stowe (if 12’th is a non storm ) 

6 or 7 ?  That is a feat 

Yeah don’t think they keep records of that, ha.  I’m sure it’s happened.  It’s no Dec 2015 or Dec 2006.  Today is 32-33F rain.  The rain events have been cold for the most part, the Stake has been 8-10” or like 2 weeks now.  Doesn’t really take a hit but doesn’t gain either.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

How can you change the ops seriously ?

My assessment is from all guidance, not just the ops. Embrace the rain on the 14th there. Interior NE still has a shot, esp NNE if this were to be a SWFE deal.

[Typhoon Tip]

Impressive surface pressure anomaly there over Northeast Quebec between the hours is 60 and roughly 130… Maxing out at 1052 or 1054 mbar that’s actually been an intensifying synoptic feature. 

[EastonSN+]

Happy that the GEFS looks improved on PAC side LR.

[weatherwiz]

If there is anything to take away from the GFS (even the Euro) it's there are some pretty potent shortwaves that will be diving south within the Arctic jet. There is going to be potential for some pretty significant weather systems with the STJ (which is strong as well) hanging around to the south. Any interactions and there's going to be some significant weather systems. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Eigh… not sure after the last 2.5 weeks of model peregrinations from the GEFs how anybody could possibly use turns of phrases like improved or impressed in deference to the Pacific – it’s right there …that is the point of origin of the emotional investment. 
Stop it!

[weathafella]

Kevin is acting like a jilted lover.  “Who cares what he/she thinks/I’m done work with this relationship!”

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Run to run change from EPS in the 7-11 day period not what you want to see.  

[weatherwiz]

IMO, anytime you start seeing flip-flops or even pattern change "delays" on ensemble guidance looking medium-to-long term that screams pattern change, especially when some of the run-to-run changes are rather volatile. I guess this ties into the Pacific discussion, but lately we've seen a pattern across Asia and the western Pacific dominated by wave breaking...there are the signals that we could see the jet become a bit more zonal across Asia with jet extension across the northern Pacific...this is what will help better the PAC and increase potential for amplifying troughs across the East.