December 2022 Obs/Disc

[ORH_wxman]

And here I was getting excited to see the block regenerating near Hudson Bay when I lopped the 00z ECMWF.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Saying the next week kind of stinks, is also in no way of saying the season should be canceled. I feel like people are going off the deep end as usual. 

Ninjaed

[Damage In Tolland]

Nowadays everybody  wants to talk like they got something to say.. but nothing comes out when they just move their lips a bunch of jibberish .. and mofo’s act like they forgot about Kev

 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Saying the next week kind of stinks, is also in no way of saying the season should be canceled. I feel like people are going off the deep end as usual. 

Nobody thinks that . Some people tend to use hyperbole when they loathe non optimistic posts about what just occurred  and To be honest there should be tolerance to a flurry of that today  ,  . Nobody is panicking , it’s dec 6’th  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Funny, you would think we are closing in on January with all of the whining and angst over this month.....but we still aren't even to the point at which December 1995 got going (12/9).

Gotta step back and maintain perspective, despite some frustrating developments.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nobody thinks that . Some people tend to use hyperbole when they loathe non optimistic posts about what just occurred  and To be honest there should be tolerance to a flurry of that today  ,  . Nobody is panicking , it’s dec 6’th  

You have been level-headed and objective, but I do sense some panic from others.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nobody thinks that . Some people tend to use hyperbole when they loathe non optimistic posts about what just occurred  and To be honest there should be tolerance to a flurry of that today  ,  . Nobody is panicking , it’s dec 6’th  

I think some do though lol. 
 

Anyways the weenie in me still wants something on the 12th, but that looks like a low chance unfortunately.

[Snowcrazed71]

Trust me, I'm very excited about when the change will happen and when we get our first big snow event. If it doesn't happen this month, it doesn't happen this month. For all those that are freaking out, take a look at what's good in your life. We were able to adopt our daughter this past May. Those things are the reason why life is great. So if we don't get snow so be it. It's weather ..it will change

[40/70 Benchmark]

December 2007....pretty good month, right....first warned event 12/13.

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

And here I was getting excited to see the block regenerating near Hudson Bay when I lopped the 00z ECMWF.

But I feel like that’s partly induced by the troughing out west. That’s where my bootleg reference came from.

If that was the residual block that retrograded to Hudson Bay while that upper level low was dumb-belling underneath, us I would feel a lot better. 
 

In any case, after about a week I’m hopeful that the Pacific gets better with still some ridging in Greenland. Fingers crossed for that.

[greenmtnwx]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Trust me, I'm very excited about when the change will happen and when we get our first big snow event. If it doesn't happen this month, it doesn't happen this month. For all those that are freaking out, take a look at what's good in your life. We were able to adopt our daughter this past May. Those things are the reason why life is great. So if we don't get snow so be it. It's weather ..it will change

Absolutely. This is just about weather, not real life. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

But I feel like that’s partly induced by the troughing out west. That’s where my bootleg reference came from.

If that was the residual block that retrograded to Hudson Bay while that upper level low was dumb-belling underneath, us I would feel a lot better. 
 

In any case, after about a week I’m hopeful that the Pacific gets better with still some ridging in Greenland. Fingers crossed for that.

Looks like the PNA gets less obnoxious (not favorable) by mid month, so that is when the watch begins....so in all fairness, I think the first 5-7 days of my original post 12/10 date will be uneventful.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think some do though lol. 
 

Anyways the weenie in me still wants something on the 12th, but that looks like a low chance unfortunately.

Thou I will never Use the sentence “the weenie in me” I agree 100% and I just want snow somewhere within 3 freakin hrs lol

[Damage In Tolland]

I think we’ve gotten to the point with the Euro and EPS that we were once at with the GFS. There were many years where no one even looked at the GFS since it was shears wrong. We seem to be there now with Euro products 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like the PNA gets less obnoxious (not favorable) by min month, so that is when the watch begins....so in all fairness, I think the 5-7 days of my original post 12/10 date will be uneventful.

Yeah, it doesn’t bother me. I know my climo and it stinks the first half of December anyways. But I do think some had high expectations. Hopefully second half of December delivers.

[Henry's Weather]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sucks the block gets delayed, but in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't change much IMO...it just lops the first several days off of the post 12/10 period, which were tenuous for coastal SNE, anyway.

Pacific and Atlantic still look good after mid-month and I see a nice storm signal from about 12/17 to 12/19.

I've stated this several days ago, so it's really excellent to see others agree

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, it doesn’t bother me. I know my climo and it stinks the first half of December anyways. But I do think some had high expectations. Hopefully second half of December delivers.

What, Dec 2003 isn't walking thru the door?   

[Cold Miser]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nobody thinks that . Some people tend to use hyperbole when they loathe non optimistic posts about what just occurred  and To be honest there should be tolerance to a flurry of that today  ,  . Nobody is panicking , it’s dec 6’th  

Key word that many here dismiss when people rant and rave. 

Nobody is truly going to swan dive off of the Tobin, or sit in their running car with the exhaust funneled into the window, and nobody, not even Ray is going to take a toaster bath over a Grinch storm.

The ebbs and flows of emotion are what make us human, and quite frankly make this place much more enjoyable during the winter months.  Everyone knows where to get their "serious" weather talk, and by-pass the b.s. when then want.    

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, it doesn’t bother me. I know my climo and it stinks the first half of December anyways. But I do think some had high expectations. Hopefully second half of December delivers.

The real irony is that the bulldog of a low out west that is the initial fly in the ointment may be a the SW that sparks our first good threat in about 11-12 days.

As far as the handling of the block...it looks like a compromise between what the GFS and EURO suite were advertising......initially, we do see the GFS scenario play out this week where they conjoin into a big ridge, but it doesn't last and ultimately the colder pattern will prevail.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

What, Dec 2003 isn't walking thru the door?   

Always the rare exceptions lol. Shows you what a good antecedent airmass can do. 
 

A good example of what I was hoping to see, is the evolution of the 0Z Canadian. That kind of shows you the types of fun you could have when blocking works in your favor.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think we’ve gotten to the point with the Euro and EPS that we were once at with the GFS. There were many years where no one even looked at the GFS since it was shears wrong. We seem to be there now with Euro products 

I just feel like the gap has closed between the two.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

What, Dec 2003 isn't walking thru the door?   

[Damage In Tolland]

Anyone notice Ginx stopped posting . Speaks volumes 

[Henry's Weather]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

And here I was getting excited to see the block regenerating near Hudson Bay when I lopped the 00z ECMWF.

As usual, we are all inhabiting different worlds.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

But I feel like that’s partly induced by the troughing out west. That’s where my bootleg reference came from.

If that was the residual block that retrograded to Hudson Bay while that upper level low was dumb-belling underneath, us I would feel a lot better. 
 

In any case, after about a week I’m hopeful that the Pacific gets better with still some ridging in Greenland. Fingers crossed for that.

Regardless of whether the Hudson Bay block forms from retrograding Greenland or building through PAC troughing (it's prob some of both since heights there are already residually very high when the PAC assists), it's very formidable for winter storms here. It's probably one of the best spots we can have a block. It's why the OP Euro gets us in the 12/14-15 storm.

But I know why that is a more dangerous evolution....if it forms in SE Ontario or Quebec instead, then it torches us....which is what many of the ensemble members try to do.

1/12/11 had a nice Hudson Bay block form ahead of the PAC troughing

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just feel like the gap has closed between the two.

The euro and eps have been unusable really since last winter. You can go back and count dozens if not hundreds of times everything about it was incorrect 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Anyone notice Ginx stopped posting . Speaks volumes 

He may just have an emergency...like one of his 12 muts has rhea.

[brooklynwx99]

38 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

you know there’s a reason why you’re five posted, right?

[greenmtnwx]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The real irony is that the bulldog of a low out west that is the initial fly in the ointment may be a the SW that sparks our first good threat in about 11-12 days.

As far as the handling of the block...it looks like a compromise between what the GFS and EURO suite were advertising......initially, we do see the GFS scenario play out this week where they conjoin into a big ridge, but it doesn't last and ultimately the colder pattern will prevail.

For now. Don’t trust the euro suite. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Regardless of whether the Hudson Bay block forms from retrograding Greenland or building through PAC troughing (it's prob some of both since heights there are already residually very high when the PAC assists), it's very formidable for winter storms here. It's probably one of the best spots we can have a block. It's why the OP Euro gets us in the 12/14-15 storm.

But I know why that is a more dangerous evolution....if it forms in SE Ontario or Quebec instead, then it torches us....which is what many of the ensemble members try to do.

1/12/11 had a nice Hudson Bay block form ahead of the PAC troughing

Yeah I acknowledged the 14th deal, but I’m just not a fan of how that forms verbatim. I feel like some sort of SWFE is in the cards for that one, but I could see the gfs solution too. 
 

Regardless, I’m looking past  that and given better Pacific and deeper into December climo, hopeful for some fun.   If we get something before that, it’s all gravy imo.