December 2022 Obs/Disc

[TheCloser24]

FWIW, 0Z Canadian actually has a significant winter storm for SNE/CNE on Sun-Mon.

[George001]

24 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It led the way with lower heights off Cali , no ?
 Why would anyone think a 10-15 day ensemble of anything has good confidence 

 

The gfs op hasn’t led the way with anything, it has been all over the place. Lows can’t ram into a massive block, the GFS is acting like the blocking doesn’t exist and keeps cutting the lows to Wisconsin, garbage model.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

20 minutes ago, George001 said:

The gfs op hasn’t led the way with anything, it has been all over the place. Lows can’t ram into a massive block, the GFS is acting like the blocking doesn’t exist and keeps cutting the lows to Wisconsin, garbage model.

They can certainly cut into Wisconsin and then they try and redevelop late . Look at the 500mb heights and anomalies on 0z gfs at hour 150-200. There  is a reason it shows it cutting . Loom what the gefs did with the block for days 7-10 compared to a few days ago . It’s wild 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

7 minutes ago, TheCloser24 said:

FWIW, 0Z Canadian actually has a significant winter storm for SNE/CNE on Sun-Mon.

Was actually about to post that , that would be a large win 

[weathafella]

22 minutes ago, George001 said:

The gfs op hasn’t led the way with anything, it has been all over the place. Lows can’t ram into a massive block, the GFS is acting like the blocking doesn’t exist and keeps cutting the lows to Wisconsin, garbage model.

George-get ahold of yourself and try to remember what you've learned from being on these boards for the past 2-3 years.  NAO is not be all end all.  See last December for proof.  GFS has performed better vs euro in recent weeks.   Canadian is a shitty model period.  qq omega implied the block would hook up with the SE ridge. He was correct in that regard.  Eventually the block should orient to actually NOT allow storms to cut west but we're not there obviously.

Keep your eye on the western US and hope for ridging.  And as ScottN (coastalwx) mentioned a few days ago, orientation of the block in the north atlantic makes a difference.

[George001]

12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

They can certainly cut into Wisconsin and then they try and redevelop late . Look at the 500mb heights and anomalies on 0z gfs at hour 190-200. There is a reason it shows it cutting . 

Yeah I just looked at the 500 mb apparently the blocking weakens and expands south over the US. That’s strange, the other models don’t have it though. If that did happen I would think the storm would be suppressed if anything due to how far south the block is.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

Yeah I just looked at the 500 mb apparently the blocking weakens and expands south over the US. That’s strange, the other models don’t have it though. If that did happen I would think the storm would be suppressed if anything due to how far south the block is.

Ya it really shows up as early as hour 144 with the shift south in the blocking as it weakens over and west of Greenland and moved considerably south and that is day 6 

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah I just looked at the 500 mb apparently the blocking weakens and expands south over the US. That’s strange, the other models don’t have it though. If that did happen I would think the storm would be suppressed if anything due to how far south the block is.

The block is a block due to high H5 heights.  If those heights merge with similar heights in the SE, it kind of encourages a stronger RNA and blocks cold and snow from getting here.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Regarding the Blocking differences Over days 5-9  between 12z eps and gefs

At 0z You can see the small difference in the way the 0z gefs And the 12z eps handle the eastern flank of some lower hieghts at 500mb rotating north Thru Hudson Bay as early as hour 84-96 and how the GFS almost allows that area of lower heights to bleed East toward Greenland over the next day and weaken the blocking over Greenland significantly and the block sort of re-establishes itself weaker  well South west over S Hudson Bay almost . 
 

where as the euro has that same hint of slightly lower heights rotating up thru Hudson Bay at hour 84 and after but it **doesn’t then bleed East and significantly weaken the block over Greenland**   Over the subsequent couple days (like the gfs) and that hint of lower heights just sort of fills a bit and ya the block backs SW a tad bot nowhere need as far Southwest as the GFS 

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2022120518&fh=18

And in case anyone is wondering the GEPS shifted a tad south with its blocking on 0z Run for the above mentioned time period . lowered heights   over Greenland for that day 6.5 period when comparing to the 12z run And is sort of a blend of gefs/ eps But trended south with the block more toward gefs a bit 

[George001]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

George-get ahold of yourself and try to remember what you've learned from being on these boards for the past 2-3 years.  NAO is not be all end all.  See last December for proof.  GFS has performed better vs euro in recent weeks.   Canadian is a shitty model period.  qq omega implied the block would hook up with the SE ridge. He was correct in that regard.  Eventually the block should orient to actually NOT allow storms to cut west but we're not there obviously.

The gfs got worse since the upgrade, it’s been shifting thousands of miles every run. The Euro has struggled with the pattern as well but not to that extent. Since when did blocks hook up with SE ridges? Aren’t they supposed to suppress the storm track south? If I end up being wrong and the blocking hooks up with the SE ridge, and then the low rams into the block I’ll admit it.  But right now I am going to ignore the GFS and stick to looking at what the other models do. In my opinion every model is cutting the low too far inland, and I think it will turn into a Miller B as we get closer to the storm. There was a storm a couple years ago the models had cutting to Wisconsin, and then it turned into a Miller B in the mid range. That said, I do have concerns about the airmass. It is not all that cold.

[weathafella]

Just now, George001 said:

The gfs got worse since the upgrade, it’s been shifting thousands of miles every run. The Euro has struggled with the pattern as well but not to that extent. Since when did blocks hook up with SE ridges? Aren’t they supposed to suppress the storm track south? If I end up being wrong and the blocking hooks up with the SE ridge, and then the low rams into the block I’ll admit it.  But right now I am going to ignore the GFS and stick to looking at what the other models do. In my opinion every model is cutting the low too far inland, and I think it will turn into a Miller B as we get closer to the storm. There was a storm a couple years ago the models had cutting to Wisconsin, and then it turned into a Miller B in the mid range. That said, I do have concerns about the airmass. It is not all that cold.

Usually they will.  Because the normal NAO has lower heights SE.  But if the trough is too far west, the SE ridge pumps up and actually becomes part of the (no longer working) block.  This in general rarely happens but it seems to happen this year.  The GFS since the upgrade is pretty unstable-I'll give you that-but all the guidance has been unstable-but the GFS has had the wildest swings.  The GEFS have actually seemed to be leading the way of late.  You hate to see it....

[George001]

Euro is trying for a Miller B. If the primary low was in even Chicago instead on Wisconsin that would be a lot better for us. Still plenty of time to correct that. There was a storm in mid December a few years ago that gave Chicago a blizzard, but then it redeveloped offshore and turned into a Miller B. The secondary low underwent rapid cyclogenesis, and NYC north got buried. Both Chicago and Boston got over a foot of snow from that storm, and some areas in CNE/NNE got over 3 feet of snow. 

[CoastalWx]

The nao is becoming kind of bootleg . The eps shows is really elongated and weakened as heights are knocked down from a temporary H5 trough. This is sort of what the gfs showed yesterday at 12z when everyone mocked it including me lol. You can see the height changes below. It does help form a block after day 7 or so and the pacific continues to show a very favorable look so that’s good. 
 

 

[CoastalWx]

Not sure what to make of the 12th. I think it’s voodoo but I’d still watch. 
 

Still a SWFE type deal possible on the 13-14. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The nao is becoming kind of bootleg . The eps shows is really elongated and weakened as heights are knocked down from a temporary H5 trough. This is sort of what the gfs showed yesterday at 12z when everyone mocked it including me lol. You can see the height changes below. It does help form a block after day 7 or so and the pacific continues to show a very favorable look so that’s good. 
 

 

Yikes lol

[MJO812]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The nao is becoming kind of bootleg . The eps shows is really elongated and weakened as heights are knocked down from a temporary H5 trough. This is sort of what the gfs showed yesterday at 12z when everyone mocked it including me lol. You can see the height changes below. It does help form a block after day 7 or so and the pacific continues to show a very favorable look so that’s good. 
 

 

Bootleg already ? The block just got into place lol

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Bootleg already ? The block just got into place lol

Bow down to your new king, the GFS

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Bow down to your new king, the GFS

LOL

The model that has changed so many times ? No thank you.

I'm still confident we will get something soon.

I keep looking at my phone when I wake up to see the models and hoping the GFS get a clue on this pattern.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

I am liking the steady continued improvements in the EPS in the Pacific as Scott said.  I wish GEFS AND GEPS would stay consistent with that regard. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

The nao is becoming kind of bootleg . The eps shows is really elongated and weakened as heights are knocked down from a temporary H5 trough. This is sort of what the gfs showed yesterday at 12z when everyone mocked it including me lol. You can see the height changes below. It does help form a block after day 7 or so and the pacific continues to show a very favorable look so that’s good. 
 

 

Could you imagine after weeks and weeks of the gfs is right and this turns to dung 

[Hazey]

Punting December? Getting dangerously close to a torchy holiday look in the long range. Hopefully just a delayed winter.

[Allsnow]

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

LOL

The model that has changed so many times ? No thank you.

I'm still confident we will get something soon.

I keep looking at my phone when I wake up to see the models and hoping the GFS get a clue on this pattern.

Close the shades until after the 16th down here 

[SnoSki14]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Close the shades until after the 16th down here 

Garbage pacific, garbage pattern 

I'm getting 01/02 vibes tbh. All the cold will be in Europe as bad pacific circumvents Atlantic blocking. 

[UnitedWx]

31 at the office here in Simsbury. The inversion this morning is causing a strange mix of fried chicken from the Big Y across the street and the local sewage treatment facility... hey, it is an obs thread

[Baroclinic Zone]

Uninspiring overnight runs for winter enthusiasts.  SWFE potential around the 13th-14th but that remains to be seen with strength of primary and block.  Could break either way.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Bootleg already ? The block just got into place lol

Loop the EPS 500 MB anomalies, and you’ll see what I mean. The block is elongated in Greenland and then it sort of get a boost by the cutter or SWFE next week, But that occurs to the north of us. Not in agreement.That is not what was modeled even three or four days ago.

 

It might be a different story in the interior if we can get more of a southwest flow event next week. There’s still a chance even coastal areas can get some snow, but I would obviously caution that.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Loop the EPS 500 MB anomalies, and you’ll see what I mean. The block is elongated in Greenland and then it sort of get a boost by the cutter or SWFE next week, But that occurs to the north of us. Not in agreement.That is not what was modeled even three or four days ago.

 

It might be a different story in the interior if we can get more of a southwest flow event next week. There’s still a chance even coastal areas can get some snow, but I would obviously caution that.

Jeez

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Jeez

I edited my post to say not in Greenland. Earlier voice over ftl.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

The nothing has changed folks , everything as scheduled were put out to pasture . The kicking and screaming is over . It was clear at 1:30 am when I really looked at those 5H anomaly changes and toggled thru them . There were hints of this the last couple days but there was more clearly shown last nite . EPS Weren’t out yet when I fell asleep but they moved oward the others in that “bootleg “ look . Just look at the 500mb Height anomaly ( not the 5 day mean ) look to see the trend clearer  
 

The block Had morphed into something significantly differen then forecast days ago and last nite continued with more changes as heights over Greenland fell significantly on all modeling in the day 5-9 time frame 
 

Things are up in the air as they have been , unless you wanna pretend a 11-15 day look is not la la land . 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The nothing has changed folks , everything as scheduled were put out to pasture . 
 

The block Had morphed into something significantly differen then forecast days ago and last nite continued with more changes . 
 

Things are up in the air as they have been , unless you wanna pretend a 11-15 day look is not la la land . 

We get to look forward to a nice soaking tomorrow.  That's happening 100%.