CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 On 12/4/2022 at 2:49 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: In all honesty what upstream conditions is the gfs seeing / hallucinating that wants to make it dig for gold by Sw Cali and is it prone to doing this or what are model bias in that region with persistent troughing if any Expand Kind of a persistent -PNA. -EPohno ridge near dateline into western AK helping. It’s also possible the block may be helping too as the troughs have nowhere to go, but dive south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 On 12/4/2022 at 2:32 PM, SnoSki14 said: You need a good pacific in December to benefit. Current signs point to better conditions by mid month however we need to see this hold into the medium term range. Pacific particularly PNA is less important Jan-March. Expand Bullshit. Some of our best patterns take place with an RNA/neg NAO....the RNA just can't be extreme. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 On 12/4/2022 at 2:57 PM, weathafella said: What-application of logic? What’s the world coming to! Expand Love the peanut gallery. They sit back and snide without adding anything but snark and memes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 On 12/4/2022 at 2:29 PM, mahk_webstah said: This thread is a good example of the downside of having so much information available to us at our fingertips these days. 30 years ago all we would know is that there’s a chance that the patterns going to turn wintery mid month. Which is probably going to happen. I enjoy the discussions of every model run just like everyone else but the big picture seems pretty clear. Probably we’re going to turn Wintery next two weeks and the potential for snow storms is enhanced by an unending signal of high latitude blocking. And the fact that we’re getting to the time of the year when it starts to get cold, even when the temperature is average or a bit above. Details to be determined. Expand Yeah, sometimes we have too much information. I do want to give kudos to the mets on here, as I've really enjoyed reading your analysis and level-headed discussion. Thanks for the good read! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 On 12/4/2022 at 2:58 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Bullshit. Some of our best patterns take place with an RNA/neg NAO. Expand It's dangerous to discuss weather patterns without historical knowledge. So nice to see some still acknowledge the past. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 On 12/4/2022 at 2:57 PM, weathafella said: What-application of logic? What’s the world coming to! Expand I feel old lol, but not really…I want to talk to you about becoming a parent at an older age. Will contact you via IM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 On 12/4/2022 at 1:58 PM, dmillz25 said: I mean that was a severely -PNA a modest -PNA would yield better results especially with a -NAO Expand YES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 On 12/4/2022 at 2:58 PM, Ginx snewx said: Love the peanut gallery. They sit back and snide without adding anything but snark and memes. Expand Nah. It's nice to see people finally agree that this great pattern to start December is crap on ground truth and we have to wait till mid-month and after before legit threats materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 On 12/4/2022 at 3:00 PM, mahk_webstah said: I feel old lol, but not really…I want to talk to you about becoming a parent at an older age. Will contact you via IM. Expand Adopting? So awesome so rewarding. We had temporary custody for 3 years of 3 grandchildren age 8 4 and 2. I was 55. Best of luck my man 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 On 12/4/2022 at 2:58 PM, Ginx snewx said: Love the peanut gallery. They sit back and snide without adding anything but snark and memes. Expand I hope that is not how I came across. I wasn’t intending to be snarky. Just reacting to the endless overstatements. I like that we have all this info, and that we can discuss it! There’s always another side to things; with the good comes the not so good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 On 12/4/2022 at 12:52 PM, greenmtnwx said: Stop following the EPS it’s terrible! Even the NWS has basically thrown in out in their recent discussion in favor of the American/Canadian blend. The EPS has been like throwing a dart. Expand God, you are such a puke. They implied that the GEFS and GEPS may be handling the Pacific better in that the neutralization of the RNA will be delayed (which I agree with)....has nothing to do with his point, which was the NAO block sending the chain of PAC shortwaves south and under said block. Classic neg NAO/RNA snow pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 On 12/4/2022 at 3:01 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Nah. It's nice to see people finally agree that this great pattern to start December is crap on ground truth and we have to wait till mid-month and after before legit threats materialize. Expand Who said a great pattern to start Dec? There was a threat the 7th is all I remember. You have been around long enough to understand the entire process of deep blocking evolution. I wish all of you no matter where you live, look up the Dec 2010 dailies. Definite clues in there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 On 12/4/2022 at 3:03 PM, mahk_webstah said: I hope that is not how I came across. I wasn’t intending to be snarky. Just reacting to the endless overstatements. I like that we have all this info, and that we can discuss it! There’s always another side to things; with the good comes the not so good. Expand Not you at all bro. It was the one or two word comments snarking the upcoming wintry pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 On 12/4/2022 at 3:03 PM, mahk_webstah said: I hope that is not how I came across. I wasn’t intending to be snarky. Just reacting to the endless overstatements. I like that we have all this info, and that we can discuss it! There’s always another side to things; with the good comes the not so good. Expand I don’t think you were the target. We’re about to pick up our 23 year old at her place in Burlington VT for breakfast. I’m 76 and I’m thankful for the opportunity to retry parenting over age 50. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 On 12/4/2022 at 3:05 PM, weathafella said: I don’t think you were the target. We’re about to pick up our 23 year old at her place in Burlington VT for breakfast. I’m 76 and I’m thankful for the opportunity to retry parenting over age 50. Expand Jerry with live bullets still. The man , the legend 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 The best pattern for SNE is not neg NAO +PNA IMHO ...that is ideal for mid atl and se. What we should hope for is neg NAO, neg EPO/modest RNA split flow...have a conga line of PAC SWs head east and run into: 1) The block sending the wave underneath us. 2) Arctic air spilling in from the M stream via the AK ridge. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 On 12/4/2022 at 3:15 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: The best pattern for SNE is not neg NAO +PNA IMHO ...that is ideal for mid atl and se. What we should hope for is neg NAO, neg EPO/modest RNA split flow...have a conga line of PAC SWs head east and run into: 1) The block sending the wave underneath us. 2) Arctic air spilling in from the M stream via the AK ridge. Expand Agree. I think @CoastalWx is correct this is more of an elevation interior pattern. I don’t see cold air source yet that would make it more widespread then that. The next two weeks we are blocking a very marginal airmass at best 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Like Sands thru the hourglass These are the weenies of our lives 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 On 12/4/2022 at 3:20 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Like Sands thru the hourglass These are the weenies of our lives Expand It has felt like Groundhog day here the last week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Can't have 'too much information' you can only have ( or not...) the ability to process it, both appropriately and responsibly - the rest is individual and/or group shenanigans. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 On 12/4/2022 at 3:19 PM, Allsnow said: Agree. I think @CoastalWx is correct this is more of an elevation interior pattern. I don’t see cold air source yet that would make it more widespread then that. The next two weeks we are blocking a very marginal airmass at best Expand Initially, yes. Its serviceable for the coast...just more of an uphill battle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 This place gets scary when there's no snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 On 12/4/2022 at 3:04 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: God, you are such a puke. They implied that the GEFS and GEPS may be handling the Pacific better in that the neutralization of the RNA will be delayed (which I agree with)....has nothing to do with his point, which was the NAO block sending the chain of PAC shortwaves south and under said block. Classic neg NAO/RNA snow pattern. Expand Worry about your own game, plenty to keep you busy there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 On 12/4/2022 at 3:19 PM, Allsnow said: Agree. I think @CoastalWx is correct this is more of an elevation interior pattern. I don’t see cold air source yet that would make it more widespread then that. The next two weeks we are blocking a very marginal airmass at best Expand Yeah initially I think it is. To me it looked more favorable here later in the 11-15 day. That’s of course if it stays as modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 It's tough to ever look great for the coast in early Dec, though...climo is what it is. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 I think the takeaway is the op runs are going to be all over the place for a while. The GFS had the low next weekend over Toronto at 0z and over NYC at 6z. Just continue watching the evolution of the pattern for clues but detailed outcomes are a little suspect on the ops beyond 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 On 12/4/2022 at 2:58 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Bullshit. Some of our best patterns take place with an RNA/neg NAO....the RNA just can't be extreme. Expand Okay then let me clarify. For areas south we need the +PNA or a neutral PNA in December Bluewave made it very clear. Rockies ridge is a must. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 On 12/4/2022 at 3:25 PM, greenmtnwx said: Worry about your own game, plenty to keep you busy there. Expand stop. you pulled the same BS last year. Come on now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 On 12/4/2022 at 3:29 PM, SnoSki14 said: Okay then let me clarify. For areas south we need the +PNA or a neutral PNA in December Bluewave made it very clear. Rockies ridge is a must. Expand Right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 On 12/4/2022 at 3:26 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah initially I think it is. To me it looked more favorable here later in the 11-15 day. That’s of course if it stays as modeled. Expand Pattern change is perpetually 11-15 days a way. Where have we seen that before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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