December 2022 Obs/Disc

[CoastalWx]

29 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Is there any sort of image/ map you could point to that shows sorta what your talking about .
 

so basically the block being further East thru mid month helps storms cut toward Great Lakes and then redevelopment under the block is further north and a tad weaker ? Or what is a better way to put it regarding the other features that become tweaked And the effects on sensible weather odds / chances etc 

 

Go to tropical tidbits and look at the EPS 500mb anomalies for the northern hemisphere view. I can’t post right now, but if you look at 00z  (12z not out yet fully) you’ll see what I mean. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2022120300&fh=72

[CoastalWx]

Also euro op looks drunk 

[greenmtnwx]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

We want the SE ridge to prevent suppression. We don’t need help with the PNA, it can snow with a negative PNA and it can snow a lot. December 2010 had a trough out west as well.

This isn’t a run of the mill SE ridge. It’s brought record temps in the last month, anomalously warm SSTs and stubborn to be scouted out. It’s going to need more than a -NAO

[mreaves]

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The Pulisic miss early on was a dagger . That should been a goal 

 

4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup. Changes the game instantly. 

We don’t have a natural scorer. We have some talent but we don’t have that guy who can ruthlessly put the ball in the net regularly. 

[George001]

3 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

This isn’t a run of the mill SE ridge. It’s brought record temps in the last month, anomalously warm SSTs and stubborn to be scouted out. It’s going to need more than a -NAO

Fair point, but this isn’t a run of the mill -NAO either. Also, the Feb 2018 SE ridge was even stronger than this one. Temps got up to 80 in Feb, yet the blocking still beat it down some. It took time, like this one probably will. That’s why the first 10 days or so of December are expected to be mild, and the first storm is lower probability than the latter 2 over the next couple of weeks.

[CoastalWx]

This is not a strong SE ridge. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Go to tropical tidbits and look at the EPS 500mb anomalies for the northern hemisphere view. I can’t post right now, but if you look at 00z  (12z not out yet fully) you’ll see what I mean. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2022120300&fh=72

Thanks , I just toggled back to how things looked on NOV 30’th for the 5-10’th of December period and then today how they look for that period . ...ya 

 

[mreaves]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I can't tell you how many times I've seen 17 points scored in the last 5 minutes

You mean the last 5 minutes that take 45 to play?  The NFL has actual action for about 18 minutes of actual football in a game that takes 3 hours.  I county watch any of it weren’t for the Red Zone. 

[greenmtnwx]

3 minutes ago, mreaves said:

You mean the last 5 minutes that take 45 to play?  The NFL has actual action for about 18 minutes of actual football in a game that takes 3 hours.  I county watch any of it weren’t for the Red Zone. 

The average NFL game actually has roughly 11 minutes of ball in play time. 

[mreaves]

Just now, greenmtnwx said:

The average NFL game actually has roughly 11 minutes of ball in play time. 

That’s even worse. I got 18 from here. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-football-is-even-in-a-football-broadcast/amp/

[weathafella]

27 minutes ago, George001 said:

We don’t need the pacific to be good when the blocking is this strong. The blocking will prevent storms from cutting.

Devil’s lettuce…

[Lava Rock]

51.6F. Fog, rain looks to be ending soon. Repeat on Tues? This is getting old.

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

The average NFL game actually has roughly 11 minutes of ball in play time. 

Most of the those 11 minutes are action packed with violence! Hence why it’s the best most popular sport in America. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

16 minutes ago, George001 said:

 That’s why the first 10 days or so of December are expected to be mild, and the first storm is lower probability than the latter 2 over the next couple of weeks.

Things didn’t always look mild 

[weathafella]

Then again, George went 105 inches for BOS in Roger Smith’s thread.   Hopefully he’s right but I’m hanging onto my money…

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Then again, George went 105 inches for BOS in Roger Smith’s thread.   Hopefully he’s right but I’m hanging onto my money…

I would wager 50$ with George and give him a over /under of 75” in Boston out of the kindness in my heart 

[Damage In Tolland]

Seems to be ever so slowly “shifting” and falling apart 

[brooklynwx99]

as i said yesterday… this looks horrible. draw the shades for a while

[78Blizzard]

26 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Things didn’t always look mild 

It gets worse after that.  The temps never get as low as the 30's let alone below freezing in BOS until mid month according to the latest GFS.   That is, after Monday.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

as i said yesterday… this looks horrible. draw the shades for a while

If you go to that link Scott posted and go to Nov 30 and loop 500mb anomaly’s for dec 5-10 and then look at eps for today For that period can you explain to me what is shown 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

8 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

It gets worse after that.  The temps never get as low as the 30's let alone below freezing in BOS until mid month according to the latest GFS. 

I mean I don’t trust the gfs or really any of the modeling / ensembles once you get past a week nevermind mid month , i mean it’s la la land . I’m just pointing (it’s hard )how the 6-14’th period has moderated significantly  on guidance and then people tend to freak out or Pretend it hasn’t .
 

**Loop the EPS anomalies from 4-5 days ago for the period compared to today’s** Loop anything . I’m not talking about past the 14’th and not saying it can’t snow in the 10-14’th inland . Just that simply (gasp lol) it turned worse ( no need to panic ) it really should just be a one paragraph post that doesn’t need to be repeated 15x . It’s not a large deal but it’s a simple fact . For those in the CP it didn’t really change sensible snow chances that much bc that was never a high probability there . 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

as i said yesterday… this looks horrible. draw the shades for a while

Look how it’s changed even from 2-3 days ago . Slowly less favorable. Loop it from like 3 days ago and see the changes 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems to be ever so slowly “shifting” and falling apart 

Things have only trended worse for next week as most of it looks warm and unsettled as guidance has pushed the beginning of the favorable period later and later.. Now the favorable period is more Dec 13+ instead of Dec 10+... We just hope that it doesn't keep on getting pushed back.. However we can still sneak in a storm in the Dec 9/10 timeframe if we thread the needle.

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If you go to that link Scott posted and go to Nov 30 and loop 500mb anomaly’s for dec 5-10 and then look at eps for today For that period can you explain to me what is shown 

It’s still a good block but the orientation matters. But this is only for the earlier period prior to 12/14 or so.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Things have only trended worse for next week as most of it looks warm and unsettled guidance has pushed the beginning of the favorable period later and later.. Now the favorable period is more Dec 13+ instead of Dec 10+... We just hope that it doesn't keep on getting pushed back.. However we can still sneak in a storm in the Dec 9/10 timeframe if we thread the needle.

100% For the entire paragraph 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s still a good block but the orientation matters. But this is only for the earlier period prior to 12/14 or so.

Ya , I think everyone comprehends the period . The next 10 days . Then like we do with anything that looks favorable outside of day 10 , we hope the good look holds . 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Things have only trended worse for next week as most of it looks warm and unsettled guidance has pushed the beginning of the favorable period later and later.. Now the favorable period is more Dec 13+ instead of Dec 10+... We just hope that it doesn't keep on getting pushed back.. However we can still sneak in a storm in the Dec 9/10 timeframe if we thread the needle.

I certainly hope I was wrong.. but I made posts about this exact thing happening 2 weeks ago when this all started showing up.  We worried about delays and changes. In my 50 years on this Earth typically when things in life are delayed they typically do not end the way you envisioned. I always harken back to snow.. 12+ is forecasted.. but all of a sudden the moon is visible when it was supppsed to be S+. How often has that ever ended well? Hopefully the Mets forecasts hear of great things happens. I’m still “worried” 

[greenmtnwx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I certainly hope I was wrong.. but I made posts about this exact thing happening 2 weeks ago when this all started showing up.  We worried about delays and changes. In my 50 years on this Earth typically when things in life are delayed they typically do not end the way you envisioned. I always harken back to snow.. 12+ is forecasted.. but all of a sudden the moon is visible when it was supppsed to be S+. How often has that ever ended well? Hopefully the Mets forecasts hear of great things happens. I’m still “worried” 

Agree. And remember the talk wasn’t just about it cooling down or we might be just near normal to climatology etc.. It was more talk of historic block, 2010 walking through the door, monster potential all that. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s still a good block but the orientation matters. But this is only for the earlier period prior to 12/14 or so.

Anything before 12/14 was always gravy....that's only the first few days of the post 12/10 that I cited last week.

[78Blizzard]

I wonder if someone hacked into the models to make them think this was still November, lol.  Because this period of warmth and rainer after rainer sure seems like November.