WinterWolf Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Euro and gfs have it . When you have a *very strong block* modeled across all Guidance you can see some early indicators of a storm evolution That catches on . It’s not saying it will happen but the energy over the N Atlantic under the block has less escape options and sometimes can be sniffed out at longer leads. Sandy was a good example 10 days though? I’m not buying it. ..Sandy was 7 days, not 10. Yes Wonky solutions due to the block…there will be many more to come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: 10 days though? I’m not buying it. ..Sandy was 7 days, not 10. Yes Wonky solutions due to the block…there will be many more to come. The energy from the retro low is from the well modeled system passing us on day 5.5 and then getting clogged in the well established block that every model has . The track is definitely not predictable at this lead but the storm itself I buy, could get hung up off SE Canada or East of New England or way out by flemish cap lol but it’s not much of a stretch that it fits the pattern from day 6-10 . Will it happen ?? Dunno but I think the idea of a retro storm in n Atlantic offshore is not unlikely given the block look day 7-10 But ya will it make it back to 65-70 west longitude..too far out in time . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The energy from the retro low is from the well modeled system passing us on day 5.5 and then getting clogged in the well established block that every model has . The track is definitely not predictable at this lead but the storm itself I buy, could get hung up off SE Canada or East of New England or way out by flemish cap lol but it’s not much of a stretch that it fits the pattern from day 6-10 . Will it happen ?? Dunno but I think the idea of a retro storm in n Atlantic offshore is not unlikely given the block look day 7-10 But ya will it make it back to 65-70 west longitude..too far out in time . Fair enough. We’ll see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Let’s at least warm the cockles of Ray’s heart with tonight’s GEFS.. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Look at that scooter HP sliding into place in the clown range Euro op..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 37 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Fair enough. We’ll see? Ya , I honestly just think it will be a feature not a storm for us the thing models seem to be keying in on today (may change) are big negative departures in Cali/Az/Nevada out at day 8-10 gfs flipped earlier in day and euro just now with a *very large pronounced *change colder in that area . Also this run flipped 850’s about 8c milder for New England in that time frame but that could flip again. Looks like a chase to mammoth mountain would be interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 21 minutes ago, weathafella said: Look at that scooter HP sliding into place in the clown range Euro op..... Well the high slid away and it was rains to Maine’s on that . Needed that high a tad west or at least not oriented NW-SE into N Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Well the high slid away and it was rains to Maine’s on that . Needed that high a tad west or at least not oriented NW-SE into N Atlantic Nevertheless, there's been a SWFE signal on and off for days now and it fits the pattern until the PNA is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 36 minutes ago, weathafella said: Nevertheless, there's been a SWFE signal on and off for days now and it fits the pattern until the PNA is stronger. There is def that signal. We are gonna need a better less transient high pressures in S Canada not crap sliding NE of Nova Scotia . Otherwise the SWFE is for Saint Lawrence valley and north and I think the models burying big negative departures today into Tijuana Is generally ugly . Gfs / gefs shifted at 12z got worse at 18z and stayed course at 0z and 0z euro didn’t look tasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Pretty good Pacific tonight on the EPS by the end of the run. I'd run with that and take my chances all day any day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 0z GFS kind of looked like the CMC just OTS long ways to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 If the shitty Pacific pattern plays out then it'll be a delayed not denied situation. Even the GEFS eventually comes around though its been very disappointing seeing things play out. GEPS looked better At some point you have to wonder if the very warm ssts off the east coast enhanced the SE ridging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 0z GFS kind of looked like the CMC just OTS long ways to go Ya the retro storm didn’t get going on euro , it was in position early but the 943 mb low well north east of it sorta stole the show . That was 20 MB stronger than 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Euro Ens def still cooler than op thou they moderated a touch in the day 8-10 time frame i Can’t really take anything beyond day 10 that seriously when it comes to how the pacific may look but monitoring trends on EPS regarding AK/ West coast ridge / trough orientation obviously being followed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 I’m all in with the Canadians evolution. It has a fairly weak low hit us the 9th, then the low slides offshore and looks like it’s going to continue sliding east. In most patterns, it would. However, the blocking doesn’t let the low move east. It has no choice but to come back and hit us again, and it deepens rapidly due to the warm Atlantic Ocean waters. The airmass is not all that cold, so we will be fighting rain snow lines. That is very much a risk this early in the season, however if the low gets strong enough it can and will create its own cold air. It looks like that is what the Canadian is hinting at, the airmass is fairly mild but the low creates it’s own cold air. This dynamically cools the column, leading to the rain snow line crashing SE. We get over 2 straight days of precip, with some areas in SE mass getting 3+ inches of QPF! Obviously it isn’t all snow, but still it shows just how much potential this pattern has. People clown on the Canadian a lot but I think it has the right idea. Whatever storm that hits us is going to just sit there and rot over us, leading to crazy high QPF outputs. The whole GFS idea of linking up the SE ridge to the block is complete bullshit, it’s more likely that the Patriots win the Super Bowl this year than that actually happening. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 52 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Euro Ens def still cooler than op thou they moderated a touch in the day 8-10 time frame i Can’t really take anything beyond day 10 that seriously when it comes to how the pacific may look but monitoring trends on EPS regarding AK/ West coast ridge / trough orientation obviously being followed Some of the EPS members next weekend early next week are fun to look at 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: If the shitty Pacific pattern plays out then it'll be a delayed not denied situation. Even the GEFS eventually comes around though its been very disappointing seeing things play out. GEPS looked better At some point you have to wonder if the very warm ssts off the east coast enhanced the SE ridging Possible That has been a thorn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Gfs is slightly further north with the 9-10 storm. Keep coming alittle more north please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ya the retro storm didn’t get going on euro , it was in position early but the 943 mb low well north east of it sorta stole the show . That was 20 MB stronger than 12z run Shocker. Models are struggling. Block gonna play Havoc. Systems are gonna pop at short leads. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Jerry was one of the first people to really be nice to me on here. Here's to many more. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Redux 30 years to the day. IIRC that seemed to be the storm/winter that got us out of our 80s doldrums. I remember it shut Christmas tree farms down in my area because of the accumulation and heavy drifting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: IIRC that seemed to be the storm/winter that got us out of our 80s doldrums. I remember it shut Christmas tree farms down in my area because of the accumulation and heavy drifting. I’d have to agree… was very elevation dependent at first, then it changed to snow everywhere the overnight and next day here..Dec 92. 92-93 was a pretty good winter here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Shocker. Models are struggling. Block gonna play Havoc. Systems are gonna pop at short leads. Shocker is right. Everyone here should realize the models esp. long range will read like a different novel every run in a pattern like this. We probably won't see something coming 'til it's inside of 5 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Dec 9-10 I think is our best shot until post-12/12 when the southern ridge starts retrograding. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Dec 9-10 I think is our best shot until post-12/12 when the southern ridge starts retrograding. Nothing wrong with that timeline…we take. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Head West. Alta with another 10" overnight and now up to 131" on the season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Head West. Alta with another 10" overnight and now up to 131" on the season. Winter has been out west since November. Montana,Wyoming and Utah really starting off strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Nothing wrong with that timeline…we take. We fight the western troughing until around 12/12….which is what helps keep the SE ridging stout. The Dec 7-8 system though gets pinned under the block and provides enough confluence to give us a shot for Dec 9-10 if it can amplify enough. One good trend in the past 24h is pretty good agreement that the PAC gets a lot more favorable beyond 12/12. Our best period might be 12/15-12/25 with the combo of decaying NAO block and a vastly improved N PAC. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Winter has been out west since November. Montana,Wyoming and Utah really starting off strong My son at Montana State can confirm and enjoy that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now