December 2022 Obs/Disc

[SouthCoastMA]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Meh, it’s early, and guidance is waffling a bit. I think it’s prudent for most people to keep expectations in check.

I think a disappointment at this time year would be a shutout through 12/20. Despite the good pattern ahead, I would take 2-4" in mid December and be content. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

I think a disappointment at this time year would be a shutout through 12/20. Despite the good pattern ahead, I would take 2-4" in mid December and be content. 

2-4” should be Doable…I’m down with that too. 

[weathafella]

Big picture-not alot of change in today's guidance.   But I"m kind of astounded that people are crying over 12/7-8.   We have to get some snow to calm weenies down!

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

It's possible no threat materializes before mid-month.

That wouldn’t shock me , The volatility on the runs is going to be so extreme and if the feature of west coast heights getting lower after the 10’th solidifies ill be adjusting a tad downward . Nothing dramatic but just noting . I honestly really just want the cutters to stop raining all over ski country every 3 days And I’ll be pretty content . 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Will  posting 360 hr clown maps Seems like a contrarian signal 

People want clown maps that show good snow. That’s really what the anxiety is all about. Deep down many won’t admit that it’s the OP runs not showing blizzards is what is concerning to them….it’s not the ensemble mean they are concerned about. 
 

You’d think it wouldn’t be that way since most posters here have been on these forums for years (if not decades). 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Big picture-not alot of change in today's guidance.   But I"m kind of astounded that people are crying over 12/7-8.   We have to get some snow to calm weenies down!

I still think we need to watch the follow up wave (Dec 9…maybe as early as Dec 8 or late as Dec 10) for something. It wouldn’t be huge but it could be one of those fast movers if things align. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

People want clown maps that show good snow. That’s really what the anxiety is all about. Deep down many won’t admit that it’s the OP runs not showing blizzards is what is concerning to them….it’s not the ensemble mean they are concerned about. 
 

You’d think it wouldn’t be that way since most posters here have been on these forums for years (if not decades). 

I think it’s partially that and partially that people have been talking and posting about this period now a solid week but it seems the Chance increase that the good pattern got kicked back today  Another couple days , so we maybe kinda waiting and hoping for la la land (2 week out period to hold ) that is part of it , maybe it’s not . But I’m really just more having fun with posts today , it’s a long wait 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anyone else getting flurries?

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone else getting flurries?

A few here. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone else getting flurries?

Ya been flakes in Nashua occasionally since 2 . Light mood stuff 

[HoarfrostHubb]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Big picture-not alot of change in today's guidance.   But I"m kind of astounded that people are crying over 12/7-8.   We have to get some snow to calm weenies down!

And a happy birthday to the Fella!  64 impressive years on the planet.  

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

And a happy birthday to the Fella!  64 impressive years on the planet.  

Where was he the other 11?

[Damage In Tolland]

48 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think we can push things back to say the 14’th or so and nobody will blink 

Many are watching , waiting .. expecting 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya been flakes in Nashua occasionally since 2 . Light mood stuff 

Nice holiday mood day

[alex]

1/2" here in the squalls

[weathafella]

20 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

And a happy birthday to the Fella!  64 impressive years on the planet.  

Thanks Dave!  I wish but I did turn 64 in 2010.   Analog?

[Hoth]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Where was he the other 11?

Jerry didn’t become impressive until the fifth grade. 

[weatherwiz]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Where was he the other 11?

Digging out of 1888

[TalcottWx]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

is this the part where everyone starts freaking out?

Not everyone, only the village idiots. 

[TalcottWx]

[ORH_wxman]

Pattern change set in during early Dec 2010....here's what it looked like for 16 days Dec 5-20, 2010.....BOS, ORH, and PVD all had zero measurable snow during this 16 day stretch. BDL had 0.3" from a squall I think.

This isn't trying to scare anyone, but it reiterates that great patterns can sometimes not produce, or take a while to produce. WE know it eventually went gangbusters, but it didn't happen right away. OTher years like 1995 it happens almost right away.

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

 What a tool 

 

[MJO812]

Weeklies tank the NAO

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

2-4” should be Doable…I’m down with that too. 

That would be a good solid coating and give us the winter vibe.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies tank the NAO

how can they tank the NAO any further, jesus.  If that ridge builds any taller the Artemis missions may as well be scrubbed because astronauts could just step from the top of that doom right upon the surface of the moon

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I see no issues on the EPS compared to 00z. Maybe even slightly better in 11-15 day.

This is the one post I need or care to read after a bust afternoon.

All good.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is the one post I need or care to read after a bust afternoon.

All good.

Let me give the disclaimer that I don't care if the heights over SC were 5 meters higher than 00z. I am talking from a more broader look. I'm not getting into the nitty gritty of minor details. For instance the GFS guidance definitely was a change. That deserves a discussion. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Where was he the other 11?

Or 12 - he's only a few months younger than me.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Let me give the disclaimer that I don't care if the heights over SC were 5 meters higher than 00z. I am talking from a more broader look. I'm not getting into the nitty gritty of minor details. For instance the GFS guidance definitely was a change. That deserves a discussion. 

Yea, I don't care about the noise that people like @greenmtnwxuse as a vehicle for torture.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think even if everything works out and goes according to plan, people need to be prepared for the chance that most of the snow comes in January. It takes a while more often than not.