December 2022 Obs/Disc

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

He means in ‘10 when it rained everywhere in New England, but NYC south fog buried. 

Oh yeah....,.but I wasn't surprised.  38 in Caribou was a huge red flag.

[George001]

40 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

CMC day 10  

The low in the mid west is turning into a Miller B and looks like it’s somehow pulling the coastal low in to absorb it. I…. have no idea what I’m looking at here and what this would look like if you extrapolate it

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, George001 said:

The low in the mid west is turning into a Miller B and looks like it’s somehow pulling the coastal low in to absorb it. I…. have no idea what I’m looking at here and what this would look like if you extrapolate it

It’s the CMC…it doesn’t know what it’s looking at either. It’s a POS. 

[bristolri_wx]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

The low in the mid west is turning into a Miller B and looks like it’s somehow pulling the coastal low in to absorb it. I…. have no idea what I’m looking at here and what this would look like if you extrapolate it

We are going to be going through a pattern transition. The operational surface maps are going to be hot garbage outside of five days while this is taking place. I wouldn't take anything verbatim outside of five days at the moment. Stick with ensembles days 6+...

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, weathafella said:

Marine puke from NAO.  We saw it in late December 1995.  With a strong snowpack we had several days of low to mid 40s for highs, 30ish nights until the reload right around New Years that eventually gave us the big January storm that produced very heavy snow BOS-southward with a Philly jack of 30 inches.  I think BOS got around 19-20.  I went xc skiing in the arboretum the day of the storm before snow started.  Temps in the high teens, deep snow cover-it was heaven.

1996 was really good up to about Lawrence...I had like 7" of sand where I am now, but I was at my mom's in Wilmington then and had about 18".

[tavwtby]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1996 was really good up to about Lawrence...I had like 7" of sand where I am now, but I was at my mom's in Wilmington then and had about 18".

96 was one of my favorites at least when in Waterbury, it was the first time I had a truck, only had it for a few days, was in my mid 20s, and we driving around bar hopping all night with it. Probably one of the hardest I've seen it snow for a couple hour period after midnight, navigating by the faint glow of the street lights... believe we got 18-24" in that one can't remember exactly, but no ptype issues either as I recall.

[CoastalWx]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1996 was really good up to about Lawrence...I had like 7" of sand where I am now, but I was at my mom's in Wilmington then and had about 18".

Was kind of a banded deal too which is what you’d expect with a past mature Miller-A but broke the 2’ cherry finally. It was spread out too. I think we started with some OE at like 3pm and didn’t end until 8pm next day. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

some boring overnight op runs for winter enthusiast

[CoastalWx]

 Nothing new today to report. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

some boring overnight op runs for winter enthusiast

Back to tossing op runs lol

[WinterWolf]

That was clear when there was not one new post all night and morning.  

[greenmtnwx]

Ensembles went the wrong way slightly, hopefully not a trend. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Back to tossing op runs lol

Always tossed beyond day 5. 
 

But…….they can be a barometer (no pun intended) to gauge a pattern. For instance in 13-14 and 14-15 they really gave you an idea of the magnitude of cold that we could see with the H5 pattern. Storm details are more nuanced so I’m not sure the value there, but they can show potential too. In our case it’s anywhere from weenie solutions yesterday to more cold and dry looks from overnight. 
 

The ensemble guidance overnight continues to promote a pretty good looking pattern with an improving Pacific later in the 11-15 day. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, greenmtnwx said:

Ensembles went the wrong way slightly, hopefully not a trend. 

 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That was clear when there was not one new post all night and morning.  

It’s refreshing not to see hr 384 clown maps when I look at this board. 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 

Oh boy here we go… lol

[EastonSN+]

30 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

96 was one of my favorites at least when in Waterbury, it was the first time I had a truck, only had it for a few days, was in my mid 20s, and we driving around bar hopping all night with it. Probably one of the hardest I've seen it snow for a couple hour period after midnight, navigating by the faint glow of the street lights... believe we got 18-24" in that one can't remember exactly, but no ptype issues either as I recall.

Biggest snow of my life living in Norwalk CT. 27 inches. Loved how it was long duration and a megalopolis storm so amped up media coverage.

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Suppression very much on the table,

[SJonesWX]

13 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Ensembles went the wrong way slightly, hopefully not a trend. 

 

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The ensemble guidance overnight continues to promote a pretty good looking pattern with an improving Pacific later in the 11-15 day. 

hmmm, I wonder which of these 2 posters will verify

[tavwtby]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Biggest snow of my life living in Norwalk CT. 27 inches. Loved how it was long duration and a megalopolis storm so amped up media coverage.

 

yeah love them awesome long duration ones, after looking through the archives, we had 25" at my then home in wtby, not sure what they got where I am now, I'll have to dig deeper, but definitely more the further SW you went, didn't Philly end up with like 3' or close to it? I remember I think Ashville NC, or somewhere near had over 4', good hammering Miller A up the coast. I personally prefer Miller B, but they are both awesome.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, tavwtby said:

yeah love them awesome long duration ones, after looking through the archives, we had 25" at my then home in wtby, not sure what they got where I am now, I'll have to dig deeper, but definitely more the further SW you went, didn't Philly end up with like 3' or close to it? I remember I think Ashville NC, or somewhere near had over 4', good hammering Miller A up the coast. I personally prefer Miller B, but they are both awesome.

Yeah Philly cracked 30. #2 NESIS storm of all time.

Pennsylvania highways closed for a long time too so grocery stores were light for a couple days.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Suppression very much on the table,

Even with a negative PNA?

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Even with a negative PNA?

yep

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Ensembles went the wrong way slightly, hopefully not a trend. 

Thanks, @greenmtnsnowman19

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

yep

Congrats DC

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

 

hmmm, I wonder which of these 2 posters will verify

If you are going to analyze every 10 meter height rise or fall, you’re going to be hospitalized. When I look at the big picture (like did the blocking weaken rapidly or Pacific go to crap etc) I don’t see anything noteworthy. Ensembles by nature will always have minor fluctuations every 12 hrs. It’s up to the person looking at them to decipher trends. Those trends take a few days to figure out. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

The reason why many have said to not anticipate feet out of coming pattern is because at this lead time and being early to mid December climo there are gonna be plenty of caution flags even inherent in a very good look. There is Also a reason we don’t average 120-150 “ So we just should Stay hopeful but realize systems could miss us or play out poorly even during the good period and some likely will . 
 

I just want to maintain an Active look to the upcoming period . That is key 

[tavwtby]

fwiw, got a nice dusting after 4 this morning, looks and feels like December out there

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The reason why many have said to not anticipate feet out or coming pattern is because at this lead time and being early to mid December climo there are gonna be plenty of caution flags even inherent in a very good look. There is Also a reason we don’t average 120-150 “ So we just should Stay hopeful but realize systems could miss us or play out poorly even during the good period and some likely will . 
 

I just want to maintain an Active look to the upcoming period . That is key 

This is why I didn't forecast 2010-2011 seasonal totals, despite having a very similar seasonal progression with perhaps even a better ending. Is it well within the realm of plausibility? You bet....would it shock me? Nope, but its just not the most likely outcome, especially in a la nina season. I am more inclined to really swing for the fences in an el nino.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The reason why many have said to not anticipate feet out or coming pattern is because at this lead time and being early to mid December climo there are gonna be plenty of caution flags even inherent in a very good look. There is Also a reason we don’t average 120-150 “ So we just should Stay hopeful but realize systems could miss us or play out poorly even during the good period and some likely will . 
 

I just want to maintain an Active look to the upcoming period . That is key 

Bingo. Give this man a milf.