December 2022 Obs/Disc

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

At 240 doubt it but the narrative sounds good.

Posting about it is one thing, believing is another. Clear a modeled blizzard will evoke more commentary than a mild, benign pattern.

[Great Snow 1717]

42 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Can't post about op runs when they don't show cold/snow.  The all cold and snow crew will tear you up.

A candidate for post of the year!

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

More to it than ENSO....this year has more in favor of blocking.

I don't disagree with this. But hopefully we get the blocking to be in our favor  

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

When it comes to ensembles, I usually look for a few things to be more confident:

1. Consistency.....are the runs more or less showing the same thing for several cycles in a row?

2. Timeline gets closer....is the pattern on the ensembles getting closer or staying out in clown range? Typically you want to see the pattern starting to get established inside of 10 days

3. Cross-guidance ensemble support. Are the EPS and GEFS agreeing with each other or are they showing different patterns? When you have multiple ensembles suites showing the same pattern, that increases confidence.

This is certainly a great checklist. 

Why I am a bit more skeptical moving into this winter is even last year when we saw some strong ensemble agreement (whether it be some run-to-run consistency or model agreement) we saw some diversions as we got closer.

but like Ray said...there is alot in favor for blocking. I'm just worried whether we get the blocking on the wrong side of Greenland and if there is a pronounced SE ridge, despite the blocking we favor more riding here with trough axis too far west. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, no guarantees it translates to a lot of snow.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

As long as we aren’t depending on some PV splitting and lodging itself somewhere beneficial . We seem to be like 1-7 with that working out 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I kind of feel like we get the big block, then during the relaxation, it becomes a gradient pattern with a ton of cold in Canada, before the big block redevelops. Then maybe team it with some PNA love in January for the big sha-bang before the real thaw.

[Great Snow 1717]

34 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Certainly no argument with that. 

But I think these past few years there has been way too much emphasis placed on face-value output of the ensembles without taking a step back to fully assess. I mean how many times over the past few years has the medium-range pattern looked great only for the complete opposite to happen at verification time? 

IMO, when you have these Nina conditions where the global pattern really is quite chaotic with so many moving pieces and so many ridge/trough patterns globally, sure the ensembles will probably pick-up what the pattern will average out too, however, it's going to fail at picking out the short-term variations within those patterns. I think this is why we've seen medium range guidance look great for snow events, but once that time comes its a crappy event b/c the way the pattern is evolving around the storm development its complete crap. 

 

31 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Moreso we've just been in a similar atmospheric state the past few winters (speaking ENSO here). Certainly other teleconnections may not be similar but we've been stuck in some sort of rotten regime the past few years (well several). 

We need to get rid of La Nina and give it a good year for the atmosphere to flush it's puke out of the system.

Agree...

[SnoSki14]

Op runs beyond 3 days are worthless.

The idea remains the same and I think models will get colder as we approach the blocking period. 

2nd half of December will be snowy and feature one or two big snowstorms 

[TalcottWx]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd probably end up having DCF enter my life after destroying all of the kids toys...do irreparable damage to therapy clients, the whole works.

Don't worry, there's always the next one. I'm sure that will make you feel so much better, LOL. 

[TalcottWx]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

But of course its cool that I'm male...just worried about the contour of my pecs with the advance of middle age

"the contour of my pecs" next time u type that hold down delete button and then hit alt f4 and go for a walk

[George001]

10 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

 

Agree...

The La Niña has not been the problem. The lack of North Atlantic blocking has been a big problem. The models are saying this year will be different. Maybe they will be wrong, but I don’t think it’s likely. How often does blocking this strong on the models just vanish?

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

So the GEFS right now as of hr 282 do not show what the GFS op showed. FYI.  Again, not saying there is 0%...but as Will, BrooklynWx have pointed out...you will see highly variable run to run solutions in the op runs. 

So what you're saying is winter canceled

[TalcottWx]

32 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

A candidate for post of the year!

[Go Kart Mozart]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I kind of feel like we get the big block

Is this what a big block looks like?

[CoastalWx]

That thing on the 6th-7th is subtly trending cooler. One to watch for NNE. Maybe follow up wave (some signs of it) helps for SNE following day.

 

Anyways, I don't see any issues on the EPS. If anything, the Pacific looks a bit better on the 12z run. If one looks at the ensembles, it's tough for me to find anything wrong for the first half of December. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That thing on the 6th-7th is subtly trending cooler. One to watch for NNE. Maybe follow up wave (some signs of it) helps for SNE following day.

 

Anyways, I don't see any issues on the EPS. If anything, the Pacific looks a bit better on the 12z run. If one looks at the ensembles, it's tough for me to find anything wrong for the first half of December. 

Eps looks great 

[ORH_wxman]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That thing on the 6th-7th is subtly trending cooler. One to watch for NNE. Maybe follow up wave (some signs of it) helps for SNE following day.

 

Anyways, I don't see any issues on the EPS. If anything, the Pacific looks a bit better on the 12z run. If one looks at the ensembles, it's tough for me to find anything wrong for the first half of December. 

The PAC at the end of that run gives me hope that even if NAO starts to break down later in December, we won't go into a torchy pattern. That was a pretty weenie run of the EPS.

[weatherwiz]

I don't care about a super block and would actually prefer not to have one. As long as the blocking is materializing as we're getting shortwaves and cyclogenesis that's better then anything else. Having blocking already in place (especially is too stout) can do bad things. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Ugly Euro run. 

Lots going wrong around the -NAO … it’s kind of interesting, the one metric that more typically demos poor predictability is the one observable aspect that’s showing any continuity.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z GFS could happen....I'd bet against it, but it's just one possibility out of many. Probably 70-80% of the possibilities will be pretty good for us. But there will be a small minority where things go belly-up like on the 12z GFS where it retros the NAO block almost into the arctic ocean and prolongs the SE ridging....but again, that is a weird deterministic solution 10+ days out so you'd bet against it.

Eric Fisher is probably fondling the OP 12z GFS on Twitter 

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The PAC at the end of that run gives me hope that even if NAO starts to break down later in December, we won't go into a torchy pattern. That was a pretty weenie run of the EPS.

That is the look I have going into January...should get some PNA after the new year

[SouthCoastMA]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Eric Fisher is probably fondling the OP 12z GFS on Twitter 

live look

[Heisy]

Op runs beyond 3 days are worthless.
The idea remains the same and I think models will get colder as we approach the blocking period. 
2nd half of December will be snowy and feature one or two big snowstorms 

I hear what you’re saying, but 3 days is kind of pushing it. I think you can have a good idea of a storm threat is real up to even 5-6. As long as you obviously don’t get caught up on specifics.

Sure, there are events that sneak up on us, but there’s plenty that are at least on OP runs 5 to even 7 days out.

Anyway, that was a beautiful EPS run. Little hint of a split flow forming too.


.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I hear what you’re saying, but 3 days is kind of pushing it. I think you can have a good idea of a storm threat is real up to even 5-6. As long as you obviously don’t get caught up on specifics.

Sure, there are events that sneak up on us, but there’s plenty that are at least on OP runs 5 to even 7 days out.

Anyway, that was a beautiful EPS run. Little hint of a split flow forming too.


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It’s interesting how these ens means keep upping the ante but the operational versions meander. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s interesting how these ens means keep upping the ante but the operational versions meander. 

maybe it's because the averaged look yields a great result but the deviations from the average are just crap  

[Heisy]

It’s interesting how these ens means keep upping the ante but the operational versions meander. 

Agreed, something has to give, there’s plenty of snow events on the EPS members in the LR. Would be nice to at least be teased by something on an OP run already…


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[ORH_wxman]

10 days a little short for snow threats if we're talking Euro OP....you're only out to like Dec 9 on the 10th day. I think msot threats would be beyond that date....save maybe if Dec 6-7 trends colder for NNE which is an outside possibility.

[Heisy]

10 days a little short for snow threats if we're talking Euro OP....you're only out to like Dec 9 on the 10th day. I think msot threats would be beyond that date....save maybe if Dec 6-7 trends colder for NNE which is an outside possibility.

Makes sense, if you look at todays EPS members, the ones that drop snow start around Day 11 or so. Hopefully in 2-4 days we get some tease rollin’


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[Damage In Tolland]

USA USA USA!!!

[weathafella]

31 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

maybe it's because the averaged look yields a great result but the deviations from the average are just crap  

How much spread?  The euro with 51 members should have less influence from outliers on either side.