December 2022 Obs/Disc

[WinterWolf]

  On 11/29/2022 at 12:53 AM, Hoth said:

I was actually just perusing the Jan 2015 discussion thread. There was a more bullish bent to the conversation starting around the 20th with the 1/24 system and the models showing big potential for 1/27. I forgot about the sloppy 1/24 storm, but then that one acted as a dirty transitory block for the big dog. 

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Ya that sloppy one was a Friday night….then at 0z that night/early Saturday morning, the Euro brought the big dog back from the dead.  That was an exciting time. 

[brooklynwx99]

the ridging over the Rockies popping up as the block attenuates is classic. this is where the potential really cranks up

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 11/28/2022 at 11:49 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

This place is an asylum from November to March. 

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FYP. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 11/29/2022 at 1:22 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

FYP. 

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I’d extend to mid April for good measure 

[CoastalWx]

I’m patient. Just sitting here smiling. Those who insist people are not patient are likely the culprits. 

[powderfreak]

18z GFS shows what miracles can come from a huge block.

Retrogrades this sucker right into a New England rainer that blue bombs the mid-Atlantic.  That ocean storm hits a brick wall and backs it right up.

 

IMG_1725.MOVFetching info...  

 

[CoastalWx]

  On 11/29/2022 at 1:46 AM, powderfreak said:

18z GFS shows what miracles can come from a huge block.

Retrogrades this sucker right into a New England rainer that blue bombs the mid-Atlantic.  That ocean storm hits a brick wall and backs it right up.

 

IMG_1725.MOV 876.98 kB · 0 downloads

 

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All of NNE just had a stroke.

[WinterWolf]

  On 11/29/2022 at 1:31 AM, CoastalWx said:

I’m patient. Just sitting here smiling. Those who insist people are not patient are likely the culprits. 

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I think most of the reasonable folks here are plenty patient.  Ya have a few who keep denying any pattern change has happened, or will. And a few who say what the ensembles have been showing isn’t real. Other than those folks, the vast majority are fine. 

[powderfreak]

  On 11/29/2022 at 1:47 AM, CoastalWx said:

All of NNE just had a stroke.

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Lol yup.  That’s how you get us.  2010 style.

[dryslot]

  On 11/29/2022 at 1:52 AM, powderfreak said:

Lol yup.  That’s how you get us.  2010 style.

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That would be a kick in the dick if that happened again.

[WinterWolf]

  On 11/29/2022 at 1:52 AM, powderfreak said:

Lol yup.  That’s how you get us.  2010 style.

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That doesn’t help us either…rains in SNE too on that.  Fantasy joke at this point, but ya, big blocks can make incredible things happen. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 11/29/2022 at 1:49 AM, WinterWolf said:

I think most of the reasonable folks here are plenty patient.  Ya have a few who keep denying any pattern change has happened, or will. And a few who say what the ensembles have been showing isn’t real. Other than those folks, the vast majority are fine. 

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Yup. The loud minority stand on the tallest podium. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 11/29/2022 at 1:49 AM, WinterWolf said:

I think most of the reasonable folks here are plenty patient.  Ya have a few who keep denying any pattern change has happened, or will. And a few who say what the ensembles have been showing isn’t real. Other than those folks, the vast majority are fine. 

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I get the angst from many. I know from about Will on east and south got lucky last year so my expectations or excitement isn’t like some on here who have endured some pedestrian winters as of late. I get it. 

[WinterWolf]

  On 11/29/2022 at 2:01 AM, CoastalWx said:

I get the angst from many. I know from about Will on east and south got lucky last year so my expectations or excitement isn’t like some on here who have endured some pedestrian winters as of late. I get it. 

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Well in that case, then I would be in that group.  Although we had a very good storm in Dec ‘20, and Feb 1st of ‘21,  but got boned last January with those of you out east/SE getting it.  I have no issues waiting to mid month for this to mature/come into its own.  

[mreaves]

  On 11/29/2022 at 12:47 AM, kdxken said:

Lolz

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To be fair, it already has been with ummm, I mean for him. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 11/28/2022 at 10:27 PM, CoastalWx said:

January 2015. Steve was sitting  there smiling as grand kids got hauled off to the ER from concussions while sledding on a crusty inch of pack. I had enough at that point.

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I never waivered... what a first outlook.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

What year was that stale shiat blocking airmas where Maine kept raining , 2010?. That was a disturbing phenomenon 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 11/29/2022 at 1:56 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup. The loud minority stand on the tallest podium. 

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Edibles may have helped craft that articulation 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 11/29/2022 at 2:22 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Edibles may have helped craft that articulation 

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Get out of my head.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 11/29/2022 at 2:19 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What year was that stale shiat blocking airmas where Maine kept raining , 2010?. That was a disturbing phenomenon 

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Yeah. Late Feb/Mar 2010. That was the most recycled rotted airmass I can remember. 

[powderfreak]

  On 11/29/2022 at 1:05 AM, brooklynwx99 said:

the ridging over the Rockies popping up as the block attenuates is classic. this is where the potential really cranks up

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That has an Archambault appeal... the best events come when the block relaxes and the NAO values are in flux, especially the backside of a strong block.

[eduggs]

  On 11/29/2022 at 1:05 AM, brooklynwx99 said:

the ridging over the Rockies popping up as the block attenuates is classic. this is where the potential really cranks up

 

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Let's get the "potential" comfortably inside 10 days. Otherwise we might just be wishing for something fantastical or ephemeral. 

[powderfreak]

  On 11/29/2022 at 4:01 AM, eduggs said:

Let's get the "potential" comfortably inside 10 days. Otherwise we might just be wishing for something fantastical or ephemeral. 

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"We don't live at 500mb" also comes to mind.  The separation between 500mb anomalies and patterns, vs. sensible weather outcomes (ie. snowstorm) is a tough one to make when looking at the future.  We all see one level (H5) and assume the SFC will bring us the goods.  Understanding the differences will be key going forward.

[bristolri_wx]

Wow, can't believe that the December thread is 17 pages long already and it's not even 12/1.  Even the last 18 hours worth of posts have been kind of crazy.

I'm not sure what the fuss is about.  I'm no met, but it's just nice to be in the ballpark of a favorable pattern in December, regardless of the outcome.  Go back the last few years, and there wasn't anything like this really modeled or discussed in December model runs.  Even if it doesn't turn out exactly as we hope, it should be a volatile pattern with chances for all sorts of weather outcomes.  It definitely does not look like last year, so already that's going to be an improvement.

I'm just hoping for seasonable weather around Christmas.  Whether there's snow on the ground, that's always tough, especially where I am, but there's been too many grinch storms last few years where I'm driving home on Christmas Eve at 10PM and its 50 degrees and foggy.  If this anticipated pattern is delayed a few days, I'm not sweating it, with the hope it lasts through Christmas, even if it ends up dry and cold.

Back to your regularly scheduled early December trolling and bickering.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 11/29/2022 at 4:24 AM, powderfreak said:

"We don't live at 500mb" also comes to mind.  The separation between 500mb anomalies and patterns, vs. sensible weather outcomes (ie. snowstorm) is a tough one to make when looking at the future.  We all see one level (H5) and assume the SFC will bring us the goods.  Understanding the differences will be key going forward.

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"Looks great at H5"....famous last words.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 11/28/2022 at 11:52 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Basically the article indicated if that was above sea level we would be in near Nuclear Winter already

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Obviously hyperbole ^ but you get my drift

[weathafella]

As I watch the GEFS roll in it occurs to me that it's trying to form a 3 wave NHEM pattern.  I believe those are very stable so it can be quite a ride.  Now it's kind of a 3 and 1/2 wave pattern in the 10-15 day prog.  Fun times could be ahead.

[George001]

  On 11/29/2022 at 5:42 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Obviously hyperbole ^ but you get my drift

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Holy shit that’s a lot of material! The material from the volcano isn’t going to disappear and do nothing. There are already signs that all that material is being absorbed into the stratosphere. Yes, we don’t live in the stratosphere but what goes up must come down. I don’t think the brunt of the material has came down yet, but once it does I think it will be absorbed into low pressure systems, and will help them strengthen to historic levels. I’m not a met so I don’t really know when all the material is coming down, but I know it has to come down eventually. It’s possible this December is just the beginning, and come February and March is when we get the brunt of the effects of the material from the Tonga eruption coming down from the stratosphere. If that’s indeed the case, this could end up becoming a record breaking winter. Not only that, but it could also mean the next few winters are also severe.

[weathafella]

  On 11/29/2022 at 6:11 AM, George001 said:

Holy shit that’s a lot of material! The material from the volcano isn’t going to disappear and do nothing. There are already signs that all that material is being absorbed into the stratosphere. Yes, we don’t live in the stratosphere but what goes up must come down. I don’t think the brunt of the material has came down yet, but once it does I think it will be absorbed into low pressure systems, and will help them strengthen to historic levels. I’m not a met so I don’t really know when all the material is coming down, but I know it has to come down eventually. It’s possible this December is just the beginning, and come February and March is when we get the brunt of the effects of the material from the Tonga eruption coming down from the stratosphere. If that’s indeed the case, this could end up becoming a record breaking winter. Not only that, but it could also mean the next few winters are also severe.

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George, most of the particulates and sulfur stayed below the surface of the sea per what I can ascertain. That's the one thing preventing this event from having a major cooling effect.  In fact, the water vapor that was released to the atmosphere is forecast to create warming per the earlier discussion a few pages back.

[George001]

  On 11/29/2022 at 6:18 AM, weathafella said:

George, most of the particulates and sulfur stayed below the surface of the sea per what I can ascertain. That's the one thing preventing this event from having a major cooling effect.  In fact, the water vapor that was released to the atmosphere is forecast to create warming per the earlier discussion a few pages back.

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Ah that’s too bad, but the increased water vapor could still lead to an increase in low strength. The question will be if that will be enough to offset the warming or not.