MJO812 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 I'm having pants tent at work 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: that block is perfection and there are people worried. lol 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: that block is perfection and there are people worried. lol Correct. No fault if they're new, it's the veterans that concern me. Essentially you need a variety of things for a massive one, this has all the early stage requirements. I think people forget we go an entire winters without a look that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 Q: regarding the upcoming favorable snow pattern and its timing. Obviously we hope the pattern has some staying power. Is there any proven data out there regarding timing and what time of winter a historically snowy pattern sets up in? Obviously the colder times of year are more snowy. I guess my question is: does this period early in winter make this pattern more likely to be transient? Or am I barking up the wrong tree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 If Forkalork is on board, that means we all should be on board. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 Just now, Whineminster said: If Forkalork is on board, that means we all should be on board. It means it may not happen if history is any lesson 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm having pants tent at work High arrest day at the precinct, congrats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 32 minutes ago, forkyfork said: you should all be excited I'm excited whenever you post here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 hour ago, TalcottWx said: Weather team is mentioning heavy rain, isolated power outages on Wednesday yeah there's interesting weather prior to the balance of what interests people in here today. That could be a potent squall and wind event, west to east, through the region Wed evening. Southerlies gust to 45 or even 55mph, with a sharp wind shift and burst to 60 and blinding swept rain for 3-5 mins with that ribbon echo. Interesting turn around in temperatures ...with an 18 hour cool snap that goes quite a bit in the other direction by Saturday... Then we'll see how things modulate next week. The idea of the blocking is likely to pan out... but the variations in how it effects the flow and what particulars that will entail still has plenty of room to move around in guidance after Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 10 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: Q: regarding the upcoming favorable snow pattern and its timing. Obviously we hope the pattern has some staying power. Is there any proven data out there regarding timing and what time of winter a historically snowy pattern sets up in? Obviously the colder times of year are more snowy. I guess my question is: does this period early in winter make this pattern more likely to be transient? Or am I barking up the wrong tree? Blocks this powerful typically last at least a couple weeks but the pattern beyond that is dependent on a lot of other things. In 2010-2011, the block hung around for over a month before breaking down during the 1/12/11 snowstorm. But the fun continued another few weeks because the Pacific became favorable and the Atlantic was still ok even after the massive block broke down. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It means it may not happen if history is any lesson Didnt you poo-poo Feb 2013 and then two years later proclaimed that we would only get nickel and dimes? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Didnt you poo-poo Feb 2013 and then two years later proclaimed that we would only get nickel and dimes? Not that I recall . Can you provide anymore detail? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 hour ago, weathafella said: I dunno-pointing out alternative positions at least for me is part of the learning process. I’ve personally pointed out unfavorable progs when they happen and each time I qualify it with the fact that the ensembles generally look very good. I pointed out tje GEPS at 12z because they were the first of the ensembles out and I thought they looked kind of hideous comparing to the tenor prior to 12z. The rest of the suite fortunately did not agree. While I’d love to see snow soon I don’t care so much really. It continues to be very early. Based on the guidance today, mid month looks potentially ripe. You haven't mentioned anything terribly distracting ... I mean, whether you are right or wrong regarding NAO blocks merging with winter killing STRs is really 'sides the main value of the point: NAOs are inherently poorly performed and stochastic index fields.... Modeled blocks and/or decaying thereof, are often proven to be red herrings. That's the take away. 'don't count NAO chickens before they hatch" As far as getting this block to initially verify ... I think it's above medium confidence, personally... I'm seeing the scaffolding at planetary scales that are directive in this case. If I had to put money on it, I'd say we'd see a system materialize for the 13th of the month... but I wouldn't be surprised if a flat mix headache happened a bit sooner. Before then, we are social media booked with therapy appointments LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Yes, very minimal SO2 release, but directly injected a massive amount of H2O to the strat and mesosphere. My colleagues have estimated a couple tenths of a degree warming over next couple years from this. Nature paper from Nov 19 finds a net climate warming signal already. Nature paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00618-z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Nature paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00618-z I'm not a geologist - though have side-carred a lot of interest my whole life ... I'm under the impression that the subaqueous nature of the eruption is at least partial in why the S02 was low? - compared to eruptions having less energy, such as Pinatubo ... with less VEI but was richer in S02. (these are not statements; these are rhetorical questions) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not a geologist - though have side-carred a lot of interest my whole life ... I'm under the impression that the subaqueous nature of the eruption is at least partial in why the S02 was low? - compared to eruptions having less energy, such as Pinatubo ... with less VEI but was richer in S02. (these are not statements; these are rhetorical questions) I think so yes. Not sure how much the chemical composition of the magma may have also played a role. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Weeklies look good until near Xmas when they go to crap and stay that way into January. Take it fwiw....they've been pretty awful though this season...esp beyond week 2/3. They missed the upcoming pattern even just last week and they missed the mid-November flip. I expect them to go to shit right around the holidays. They will absolutely nail that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Didnt you poo-poo Feb 2013 and then two years later proclaimed that we would only get nickel and dimes? Sounds familiar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes. There's probably multiple reasons for it....first, we're just entering winter so everyone is impatient. Second, I'll bet a large part of it is there are no snowstorms on the operational runs. That gets a lot weenies anxious, even though it shouldn't. Snowstorms occur from shortwaves.....good luck having models find a shortwave in the flow 10+ days out. Third....there is definitely Tip's psychology aspect to it. Some probably doom and gloom so they can either be "right" or "happy"....if they are wrong, it's cold and snowy and they won't care that they were wrong. But if they're right, they get to troll everyone and pat themselves on the back for calling the bust well in advance. Regarding your second point those that are looking for snowstorms need to look at the last two runs of the CFS on Pivotal (snow depth). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Didnt you poo-poo Feb 2013 and then two years later proclaimed that we would only get nickel and dimes? He definitely was before ‘13. He tossed the Euro when it started showing the blizzard. Can’t remember ‘15, but Scott definitely melted before epicosity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Hoth said: He definitely was before ‘13. He tossed the Euro when it started showing the blizzard. Can’t remember ‘15, but Scott definitely melted before epicosity. January 2015. Steve was sitting there smiling as grand kids got hauled off to the ER from concussions while sledding on a crusty inch of pack. I had enough at that point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: January 2015. Steve was sitting there smiling as grand kids got hauled off to the ER from concussions while sledding on a crusty inch of pack. I had enough at that point. That’s exactly what I remember! Steve posting pics of muddy sled tracks and trying to make the best of a bad situation. And then you melted hard haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: I'm having pants tent at work Reese McGuire??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 1 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I think so yes. Not sure how much the chemical composition of the magma may have also played a role. https://youtu.be/8MYAFfeNO00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 18 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Sounds familiar. Does it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Does it? Yes you played Devils Advocate or reverse psychology leading up to one of the monster storms. 2013 sounds right. Nickels and Dimes too that turned into an epic stretch also rings a bell lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, qg_omega said: You lose a lot of credibility posting a d8 snapshot from an operational run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: you should all be excited 24"+ or power out for a week, sure. no ty otherwise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: You lose a lot of credibility posting a d8 snapshot from an operational run. And that’s how you know he’s a monster Troll. The proof is right there. He’s a joke. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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