December 2022 Obs/Disc

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

2012 had like a half inch and 2017 (albeit not at 7am) had almost 3”, but yeah sort of due I suppose.

2012 was like a dusting here and 2017 was less than an inch, I’d call it more like a coating, not even sure it was measurable. This are has done well overall, but definitely in a relative screw zone for that time period. Even just NW of here did better in 2017.

 

A quick search says we have a white Christmas here roughly 30% of the time, so it’s been a while 

[weathafella]

Years I remember with decent November snows:

 

1997-about 4 inches on the 14th

2002-a few inches Tday weekend

2004-a nice 3-6 around mid month

2012-maybe the 7th?

2018?   6 inches here but slush downtown

[Damage In Tolland]

6 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m pretty sure that was the last white Christmas we had here locally. So it’s been 12 years. I’d say we are due here, even with not so great white Christmas averages 

Your area there on the coast will likely not see one again lol

[greenmtnwx]

Ops still look ugly. Cutter after cutter, cold, warm, wet repeat. When will these ensemble pattern runs start showing up in the sensible weather. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Ops still look ugly. Cutter after cutter, cold, warm, wet repeat. When will these ensemble pattern runs start showing up in the sensible weather. 

Post 12/5. In between 12/5 and 12/10. The one after 12/5 maybe is a SWFE for you perhaps.  Until then it’s warm/wet/cold. Enjoy. 

[Damage In Tolland]

That’s why we warned about jumping gun and timing pushed back . This is typical 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s why we warned about jumping gun and timing pushed back . This is typical 

Things look like they got pushed back a couple days on OP Runs perhaps , didn’t dissect ENS now we back to seeing colder /stormy con day 11/12 . Hope it holds rev or pope will have a parade 

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Things look like they got pushed back a couple days on OP Runs perhaps , didn’t dissect ENS now we back to seeing colder /stormy con day 11/12 . Hope it holds rev or pope will have a parade 

Initially it was Dec 1.. then Dec 5. Now it looks like we lost the snower on Dec 8 and we get colder Dec 10. It’s been a slow steady delay which was the worry expressed . Not that it wouldn’t change to wintry , but that everything got delayed 

[qg_omega]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Initially it was Dec 1.. then Dec 5. Now it looks like we lost the snower on Dec 8 and we get colder Dec 10. It’s been a slow steady delay which was the worry expressed . Not that it wouldn’t change ti wintry , but that everything got delayed 

Need to close the shades for the next 3 weeks

[SouthCoastMA]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Initially it was Dec 1.. then Dec 5. Now it looks like we lost the snower on Dec 8 and we get colder Dec 10. It’s been a slow steady delay which was the worry expressed . Not that it wouldn’t change to wintry , but that everything got delayed 

so models in the long range were off about 2 days? doesn't seem like something to get bent out of shape over

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

so models in the long range were off about 2 days? doesn't seem like something to get bent out of shape over

Dec 1 to 10 now is over a week delay. No one is saying the wintry pattern isn’t coming , just that the concerns about it getting pushed back were warranted 

[ORH_wxman]

When was the good pattern supposed to lock in Dec 1? That’s been in the crap period almost the entire time. There was a very brief couple runs over a week ago that sort of muted the mild pattern in the first few days of Dec but it quickly reverted back to mild. 

It’s been very consistent on post-Dec 5th. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

When was the good pattern supposed to lock in Dec 1? That’s been in the crap period almost the entire time. There was a very brief couple runs over a week ago that sort of muted the mild pattern in the first few days of Dec but it quickly reverted back to mild. 

It’s been very consistent on post-Dec 5th. 

I can’t tell if these guys are joking with us or not lol .. the ensembles have been very consistent for the post Dec 4-7 shift to very favorable. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I can’t tell if these guys are joking with us or not lol .. the ensembles have been very consistent for the post Dec 4-7 shift to very favorable. 

Yep. If people want to quibble about the colder look being Dec 8-9th vs Dec 6-7th…ok that’s fine. Not sure why anyone would care about that difference 2 weeks out, but it certainly never looked like a cold pattern locked in by Dec 1-3. In fact, it’s looked quite mild during that period on like 90% of the runs in the last 7+ days. 
 

 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. If people want to quibble about the colder look being Dec 8-9th vs Dec 6-7th…ok that’s fine. Not sure why anyone would care about that difference 2 weeks out, but it certainly never looked like a cold pattern locked in by Dec 1-3. In fact, it’s looked quite mild during that period on like 90% of the runs in the last 7+ days. 
 

 

I sometimes wonder if this forum is on another planet.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I sometimes wonder if this forum is on another planet.

Some people should prob log off for about a week and then check back in. There’s very likely going to be no threat to track until at least that point. 
 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I’m glad I got a couple responses . Back to sleep . If it’s not here by the GTG, I’m bringing the pope.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s why we warned about jumping gun and timing pushed back . This is typical 

 

56 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Need to close the shades for the next 3 weeks

Just stop

This is going as planned

[CoastalWx]

Beer, edibles, meth, Molly.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Beer, edibles, meth, Molly.

Patience Grasshoppers.. as that block retros west. Boom

[Modfan2]

Just need to know when I need to buy snow shovels, maybe a snow blower?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Modfan2 said:

Just need to know when I need ti buy snow shovels, maybe a snow blower?

Never. It’s a jinx.

[qg_omega]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Patience Grasshoppers.. as that block retros west. Boom

Looks good for the west

[Snowcrazed71]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Just stop

This is going as planned

It's funny.. I can't tell if Kev is an adult or a teenager? He has tantrums and exaggerates what's upcoming. 

With that said, things are pretty much on track. The pattern flip is still showing up.... maybe later in the second week of December. I'm not sure if we've discussed anything that was going to happen on the first week of December. Our discussion has always been late second week. Now if it gets extended out another week or if it comes a little sooner, that's typical. I am just as excited and anticipating getting some wintry weather in here as everyone else on this forum. I'm just not going to have tantrums about it being delayed or not. At least not yet lol

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

It's funny.. I can't tell if Kev is an adult or a teenager? He has tantrums and exaggerates what's upcoming. 

With that said, things are pretty much on track. The pattern flip is still showing up.... maybe later in the second week of December. I'm not sure if we've discussed anything that was going to happen on the first week of December. Our discussion has always been late second week. Now if it gets extended out another week or if it comes a little sooner, that's typical. I am just as excited and anticipating getting some wintry weather in here as everyone else on this forum. I'm just not going to have tantrums about it being delayed or not. At least not yet lol

He’s a very disturbed individual. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Looks good for the west

It honestly does look good right down to big Bear , in San Bernardino Mtns

[STILL N OF PIKE]

On a actual serious note does anyone have any visibility to how long such a better pattern would last , it always seems like a weenie trap to me that some think any change will be prolonged , and while those things are possible (and will only be known further down the road ) how long is the general favorable period good for at this point. Do we have an idea or not really . Serious question as obviously the board is looking forward to it...be it the 6’th or the 9’th . We can’t really see past the 15’th can we ?

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Looks good for the west

Drunk ?

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

On a actual serious note does anyone have any visibility to how long such a better pattern would last , it always seems like a weenie trap to me that some think any change will be prolonged , and while those things are possible (and will only be known further down the road ) how long is the general favorable period good for at this point. Do we have an idea or not really . Serious question as obviously the board is looking forward to it...be it the 6’th or the 9’th . We can’t really see past the 15’th can we ?

Probably some sort of relaxation around the holidays before a reload after the new year.

[Go Kart Mozart]

The high over Greenland is within spitting distance of the global record, which was recorded over Mongolia.