December 2022 Obs/Disc

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think the main deviation from what I had expected for the month of December when I issued my outlook a couple of weeks ago is that the neg NAO looks a bit more pronounced, which turns this:

Into this:

NO

Note how the more pronounced high latitude blocking earlier in the season helps to relegate any semblance of a se ridge to the southern mid Atlantic, as compared to modest positive anomalies encroaching on the NE in the aforementioned guidance and seasonal forecast composite.

While the month appears as though it may be trending a bit cooler due to what may transpire at higher latitudes, all is not lost if this does indeed revert back to a slightly tamer look. The month should not end up as mild as it could otherwise due to the tendency for Canada to remain cold, a la the 1973, 1975 and 2007 dataset mentioned on the seasonal forecast, which will ensure chances for wintery weather during the month across the north, despite the fact that it will not be a frigid month. The month will gradually turn colder as the high latitudes become more disturbed, and while the mid-Atlantic may find snowfall scare, New England should not...especially north and interior. However, coastal areas/lower terrain may have frequent precip type issues during coast storms due warm SSTs. Some elevation events are certainly possible. There will also be southwest flow events/warm air advection events, which will be more fruitful for the coast in terms of snow. A white Christmas is likely across the interior and northern New England, and possible along coastal southern New England. It is very unlikely for at least the lower terrain of the mid Atlantnic.

 

While this is not your prototypical "big dog pattern", they are possible should a worthy wave become pinned beneath the NAO block, a la Jan 2011. Said system would be of the miller B variety and primarily impact from the 40th parallel on north.

December Forecast H5 Composite:

 

 

 

 

The real fireworks may come after the new year.

[rimetree]

Is this a throwback thread or did you mean December 2022 Obs/Disc  

[512high]

8 hours ago, rimetree said:

Is this a throwback thread or did you mean December 2022 Obs/Disc  

Pretty sure Ray, started this thread for next month...Novie pretty much gone!

[rimetree]

Yeah, I know...it was initially titled 2020 instead of 2022. Thought Ray had a bit of a Freudian slip and predicting a repeat of that month.  I'd take another 14" for December if it manages to stick around through Christmas at least but hoping we do a little better this year. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, rimetree said:

Yeah, I know...it was initially titled 2020 instead of 2022. Thought Ray had a bit of a Freudian slip and predicting a repeat of that month.  I'd take another 14" for December if it manages to stick around through Christmas at least but hoping we do a little better this year. 

Well, my analog composite has a triple dose of 2020-2021, so.....

[SnoSki14]

Nice teleconnections today. Falling AO/NAO and even a PNA trying to rise to neutral? 

MJO also briefly curling into phase 8 as well. 

Looks like after Dec 5 is when things could get interesting.

[Ginx snewx]

Have to disagree with Ray here. All indicators show us coming up to a great December pattern. I would expect a BN overall pattern with multiple chances at snow. I think overall snow lovers will be happy with December and think the Grinch will be blocked and shunted. Overall with warm days not torching and cold days BN, I expect Dec to be BN with AN snow. 

[SJonesWX]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, my analog composite has a triple dose of 2020-2021, so.....

so good snow to be wiped out by an epic Grinch torch. sweet. 

[WxWatcher007]

16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Have to disagree with Ray here. All indicators show us coming up to a great December pattern. I would expect a BN overall pattern with multiple chances at snow. I think overall snow lovers will be happy with December and think the Grinch will be blocked and shunted. Overall with warm days not torching and cold days BN, I expect Dec to be BN with AN snow. 

If we keep the Grinch away, that’s a massive win. Did just that last year.

Can’t imagine how much worse December would have been personally without that landscape considering I was about to lose my dad. 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Have to disagree with Ray here. All indicators show us coming up to a great December pattern. I would expect a BN overall pattern with multiple chances at snow. I think overall snow lovers will be happy with December and think the Grinch will be blocked and shunted. Overall with warm days not torching and cold days BN, I expect Dec to be BN with AN snow. 

I'm not sure you have an entirely accurate portrayal of what I am communicating. This is not at all a torch vs 1991-2020 climo. That said, there is a colder risk, as I said at the start of the thread. May be more of a timing issue because I def. have a very wintery January.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

so good snow to be wiped out by an epic Grinch torch. sweet. 

Not necessarily a grinch...its a decent analog, but can't be taken too literal.

[40/70 Benchmark]

My main question around December was how quickly the NAO would materialize and have staying power....my composite had more variability, which is reflected by some of the individual analog years, before staying more negative in January. But like I said, the NAO may fully cooperate sooner, which would be a bit better for December relative to the forecast. 

Getting the overall outlook generally correct is a tall enough task, but good luck with timing everything perfectly.

[ORH_wxman]

Model guidance continues to be consistent in showing the more interesting pattern after 12/5

Very good agreement between EPS and GEFS. 
 

 

[weathafella]

That's quite the NAO among other teles!

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Firing up the Corsica 

[SnoSki14]

That block is straight outta the Dec 2010 playbook 

[WinterWolf]

I’m glad Will posted in the November thread…cuz I didn’t even realize we had a December thread started…ya that block is looking stout and formidable now…interesting. 

[weathafella]

We’re probably 10-15 days away from a lot of fun.

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

We’re probably 10-15 days away from a lot of fun.

Yeah i think roughly 12/7ish would be our first shot at anything significant. But there’s likely to be many more chances after that with that type of blocking present. 
 

I posted the 5 day mean h5 but even on the snapshot of the last panel, that blocking is going to town which would imply having favorable setups well into mid-month 

 

[CoastalWx]

Pretty sweet look. 

[512high]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty sweet look. 

Just need it to "hold",  meanwhile 52F ASH

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty sweet look. 

Late Dec 2010 to first half of Jan 2011 vibes. 
 

That doesn’t mean weenies should start expecting the same results because it’s not exactly the same and snowfall involves a lot of nuances anyway….but the large scale features are very similar. 
 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

I am now officially on board for a big Dec and Jan . We needed to see it get under 8 days and it is 

“I just called to say , I snow you” 

 

[cleetussnow]

Different than last December at least

[George001]

With blocking that severe the ceiling for this December is very high, as in 20+ inches of snow for the month in most of SNE. That is a lot, but it only takes one storm to reach those amounts with this severe North Atlantic blocking pattern. Instead of getting 12 hour storms with a positive NAO in this pattern due to the blocked flow the low isn’t going anywhere, so we would get 24 hour storms instead, possibly longer. With the warm ssts offshore I’m thinking a March 2018 redux, where the NW areas get clobbered with the first storm or 2. Then mid to late month when the cold air is more established (there are signs of a polar vortex displacement event on the models, despite no SSW), the clash between the northern airmass and the mild early season Atlantic Ocean SSTs leads to any area of low pressure forced to redevelop offshore due to the blocking to undergo rapid cyclogenesis as it comes up the coast, deepening into the 960s. On top of this, we have the increased water vapor in the atmosphere due to the volcanic activity last year, this increase in water vapor will lead to truly obscene QPF totals. 

 

[SJonesWX]

10 minutes ago, George001 said:

With blocking that severe the ceiling for this December is very high, as in 20+ inches of snow for the month in most of SNE. That is a lot, but it only takes one storm to reach those amounts with this severe North Atlantic blocking pattern. Instead of getting 12 hour storms with a positive NAO in this pattern due to the blocked flow the low isn’t going anywhere, so we would get 24 hour storms instead, possibly longer. With the warm ssts offshore I’m thinking a March 2018 redux, where the NW areas get clobbered with the first storm or 2. Then mid to late month when the cold air is more established (there are signs of a polar vortex displacement event on the models, despite no SSW), the clash between the northern airmass and the mild early season Atlantic Ocean SSTs leads to any area of low pressure forced to redevelop offshore due to the blocking to undergo rapid cyclogenesis as it comes up the coast, deepening into the 960s. On top of this, we have the increased water vapor in the atmosphere due to the volcanic activity last year, this increase in water vapor will lead to truly obscene QPF totals. 

 

I won’t settle for anything less than 24-36” with 48 straight hours of blizzard conditions 

[weathafella]

22 minutes ago, George001 said:

With blocking that severe the ceiling for this December is very high, as in 20+ inches of snow for the month in most of SNE. That is a lot, but it only takes one storm to reach those amounts with this severe North Atlantic blocking pattern. Instead of getting 12 hour storms with a positive NAO in this pattern due to the blocked flow the low isn’t going anywhere, so we would get 24 hour storms instead, possibly longer. With the warm ssts offshore I’m thinking a March 2018 redux, where the NW areas get clobbered with the first storm or 2. Then mid to late month when the cold air is more established (there are signs of a polar vortex displacement event on the models, despite no SSW), the clash between the northern airmass and the mild early season Atlantic Ocean SSTs leads to any area of low pressure forced to redevelop offshore due to the blocking to undergo rapid cyclogenesis as it comes up the coast, deepening into the 960s. On top of this, we have the increased water vapor in the atmosphere due to the volcanic activity last year, this increase in water vapor will lead to truly obscene QPF totals. 

 

Damn James...we all thought you died!

[dmillz25]

24 minutes ago, George001 said:

With blocking that severe the ceiling for this December is very high, as in 20+ inches of snow for the month in most of SNE. That is a lot, but it only takes one storm to reach those amounts with this severe North Atlantic blocking pattern. Instead of getting 12 hour storms with a positive NAO in this pattern due to the blocked flow the low isn’t going anywhere, so we would get 24 hour storms instead, possibly longer. With the warm ssts offshore I’m thinking a March 2018 redux, where the NW areas get clobbered with the first storm or 2. Then mid to late month when the cold air is more established (there are signs of a polar vortex displacement event on the models, despite no SSW), the clash between the northern airmass and the mild early season Atlantic Ocean SSTs leads to any area of low pressure forced to redevelop offshore due to the blocking to undergo rapid cyclogenesis as it comes up the coast, deepening into the 960s. On top of this, we have the increased water vapor in the atmosphere due to the volcanic activity last year, this increase in water vapor will lead to truly obscene QPF totals. 

 

Crack?

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Late Dec 2010 to first half of Jan 2011 vibes. 
 

That doesn’t mean weenies should start expecting the same results because it’s not exactly the same and snowfall involves a lot of nuances anyway….but the large scale features are very similar. 
 

 

Yeah definitely shades of that. We pray anyways. 

[MJO812]

Just now, dmillz25 said:

Crack?

Turkey overdose