Gino27 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 GFS is on it's own with that solution. I've seen a few meteorologists say that they think it's possible for a gfs solutions where the ULL closes off early and south, but we will have to wait and see. I'm still intrigued with every model really hammering down lower snow totals in the Scioto Valley. I know how valleys can funnel warm air and create a precip shadow, but it seems a bit overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Yea these runs with the high vs low accumes across Ohio is very odd. 18z NAM has about 5" IMBY in SW Greene Co. where GFS has 10"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 0z GFS. I'm rooting for it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 well all that's left is to fire up the radar and the meso models, kick back a few and make sure I'm up at 2am to watch this front come thru. Media is calling this a "once in a generation weather front"....may it live up to the hype and bring us more surprise then disappointment 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Well said! May set my alarm as well. Got lots of gifts to wrap anyways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 9 minutes ago, buckeye said: well all that's left is to fire up the radar and the meso models, kick back a few and make sure I'm up at 2am to watch this front come thru. Media is calling this a "once in a generation weather front"....may it live up to the hype and bring us more surprise then disappointment Would have been cool to see this happen during the daylight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 55 minutes ago, buckeye said: well all that's left is to fire up the radar and the meso models, kick back a few and make sure I'm up at 2am to watch this front come thru. Media is calling this a "once in a generation weather front"....may it live up to the hype and bring us more surprise then disappointment Still will never beat December 14-15, 1901. Went from 65 to -4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Well every model but the NAM is giving most of us at least 4 or 5" will NAM pull the coup? If GFS becomes the accurate model, it'll be a sight to behold. 8-10" of snow in mainly 5hrs or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 BAMWX (Private forecaster out of Indy} moved west central Ohio, including Dayton into the 6 plus inch band about an hour ago. Says the storm is slowing down....bombing sooner...and further East track. Winds will be stronger accordingly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 slowing down could lead to some higher totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Slowing down the precip shield would be awesome..... GFS has been on the higher side all along...not sure why, I haven't dug into the QPF differences given our history of swing and miss....really have like the trends over the last 2.5 days..... Down here (SE Cincy) 9-1AM hour should be a sight to see....hoping to get into those snow squall warnings with howling wind!!! What do you think... 3" minimum for the constant snow globe for the next 2-3 days? 2" seems like it might break apart and leave a lot of bare spots with the wind..... I am calling 4-6.....I bet we see a 5-8 stripe from Lawrenceburg NNE through Oxford and Greenville / Versailles (CoachLB!!!) Holiday Greetings 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 i was thinking 3-5. but that 5-8 could be in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 18z Kuchera HRRR snowfall totals. 10 to 1 about half this. With the cold and dryness...let's hope Kuchera is more accurate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 I went out a little earlier, it's a steady heavy mist/drizzle, low clouds, dismal and in the 40's. Kinda reminds me of that benign afternoon of Wednesday January 25th, 1978. In all seriousness I do think we are looking a little better here in central OH. It seems there's been a slight trend east with everything and I've seen some short model runs that give us more precip then places west. Not saying it's going to be heavy snow but I think we have a better shot of 3" + then it looked like yesterday. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 13 minutes ago, buckeye said: I went out a little earlier, it's a steady heavy mist/drizzle, low clouds, dismal and in the 40's. Kinda reminds me of that benign afternoon of Wednesday January 25th, 1978. In all seriousness I do think we are looking a little better here in central OH. It seems there's been a slight trend east with everything and I've seen some short model runs that give us more precip then places west. Not saying it's going to be heavy snow but I think we have a better shot of 3" + then it looked like yesterday. Yeah, the roads are wetter than I expected. If the cold air really does rocket in here, the roads will be a block of ice as snow gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedskater Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 On the "White Hurricane" or 'Great Blizzard" of January 25, 1976. https://www.weather.gov/iln/19780126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 wow okay... even 3"+ with these winds will be impossible to travel in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 12 minutes ago, Gino27 said: wow okay... even 3"+ with these winds will be impossible to travel in I see no scenario where it's only 10:1 ratio. Not with these Temps. No way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 Seems like the front is slowing down some to this untrained eye …the snow is looking good… 3-5 seems a good bet.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 19 minutes ago, dilly84 said: I see no scenario where it's only 10:1 ratio. Not with these Temps. No way. Some have said the high wind cuts ratios a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: Some have said the high wind cuts ratios a bit. Be impossible to measure accurately regardless. Just a gut feeling it's gonna be bigger than people expect. If you know me from the years here, I'm usually pessimistic. I just have a gut feeling with this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Be impossible to measure accurately regardless. Just a gut feeling it's gonna be bigger than people expect. If you know me from the years here, I'm usually pessimistic. I just have a gut feeling with this one. I think you can be optimistic too! Last year’s sleet fest storm for example. You were like no way we don’t get more snow than what the models are showing. But I agree, none of us are gonna be able to measure accurately. Let’s just enjoy the show (what we can with it being dark)! I am planning on staying up as late as my body lets me. I already had planned the day off tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 10tv and nbc4 in columbus really going out with 1-2" across most of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 SREF plumes for my area showing a mean of 6" now. Hopefully that'd be enough that the wind doesn't leave the yards bare. 1 or 2" I don't think we'd really have a white christmas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 My SREF plumes 18 minutes ago, dilly84 said: SREF plumes for my area showing a mean of 6" now. Hopefully that'd be enough that the wind doesn't leave the yards bare. 1 or 2" I don't think we'd really have a white christmas was at 2 inches… now at 5! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Cold front just west of KDAY, snow is on the Ohio/Indiana border! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, HighTechEE said: Cold front just west of KDAY, snow is on the Ohio/Indiana border! Other forum going bonkers because Illinois and others aren't breaking 1 or 2 inches. Hopefully that's not the case here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 1 minute ago, dilly84 said: Other forum going bonkers because Illinois and others aren't breaking 1 or 2 inches. Hopefully that's not the case here Fingers xssd but I’m thinking like 2-3 here. Maybe more for you dilly since you’re northeast of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Other forum going bonkers because Illinois and others aren't breaking 1 or 2 inches. Hopefully that's not the case here For once, maybe Cleveland will outdo Chicago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 37 and snowing nicely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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