Let’s talk weather!

[jbcmh81]

1 hour ago, Gino27 said:

GFS takes a big jump to the NE. The east trend we are probably rooting for might actually be the worst case scenario if we don't get a favorable axis on the trowel with the low too far north. Then we're limited on our backside potential.

Climo finds a way. 

[CoachLB]

[jbcmh81]

Either too amped and too far west for decent snow, or too weak and still not far enough east for anything decent. I don't think this is breaking the December historic trend. 

[iluvsnow]

I like to follow Bamwx on Twitter for regional info. They are a private forecasting group out of Indy. They just said there is a long way to go on final solutions for this thing. The huge shift from midnight to noon proves that.

[buckeye]

1 hour ago, Gino27 said:

GFS takes a big jump to the NE. The east trend we are probably rooting for might actually be the worst case scenario if we don't get a favorable axis on the trowel with the low too far north. Then we're limited on our backside potential.

If you asked me what the best place to be right now, (outside of lake influenced areas or far nw), I'm not sure I could pinpoint it.    That's what's crazy about this scenario.  If you're directly north or northeast of it you get rain wrapping in as it starts to bomb, if you're directly west of it, you run the risk of the dryslot.    I guess it's always best to be in closer proximity of the low itself but that's about all you can say.   Either way we should see squalls, wind, and even a short period of lake effect with the trajectory of the low....not including whatever synoptic happens.     Lots of localized winners and losers with this one.   Interesting for sure!

[dilly84]

I personally like where I'm sitting. Outside of the ICON, 12z runs all gave me at least 5" of snow, which I'd gladly take 2 days before Christmas. 

[dilly84]

Not even on the NAM or any short range models yet and half the group sounds like Grinches. Lord. 

[Steve]

Latest SWC ideas on the end of week storm. It will be a rapidly, deepening storm. The bitter Arctic air slamming into a moist, subtropical jet will set the stage for low pressure to ”bomb” out over the Ohio Valley. 

The system is crossing into southwestern Canada this evening. As better sampling becomes available, more specifics can be ascertained. If we look at the 12z model suite from Monday afternoon, the storm projected East. In this case, a slightly colder look, earlier than other runs. Will the trend continue?  That is unknown; however, the energy in the Pacific appears a bit weaker. This leads to a little less amplification, or a flatter movement of the storm system.  What this means is a little more south and East projection of the surface low. The problem is 50 miles will mean a great deal. Specifics simply cannot be made, currently.  What can I tell you?

Pretty sure the storm will start out as a period of rain. The latest guidance seems to rush colder air in here faster Thursday evening into Friday morning.  This would imply a changeover to snow, sooner. So earlier changeover means more snow.  

Wind will likely end up being the most noticed issue from this storm. As the surface low rapidly deepens, winds will howl. Sustained winds over 40 mph with gusts to near 60 mph seems likely at the height of the storm.  With the snow, regardless of minor or major, blowing and drifting snow will become an issue. It is with some certainty that areas in the region will experience blizzard conditions. 

Flash freeze conditions come next. Temps in the 30s and 40s will nosedive into the single digits and teens. With the wind, wind chill temps will be below zero.  So be prepared for an abrupt change in air temperature. 

The hardest issue is track. What I am going to do is hazard a guess with track of this system. I truly feel that the cold is still a bit underestimated by models and the blocking over northeast Canada up into Greenland is being underplayed. This is why the 12z model trended east, and believe a bit more east movement is possible. The farther east this tracks, the more areas that could see more snowfall. I will try to zone in tomorrow and Wednesday on specifics, but as I sit here Monday evening, I still do not have that much confidence on what this storm will do. It is the fact that this storm could deepen so rapidly that models are still missing a key piece or two that can greatly alter the outcome of this storm. 

All I can say is stay tuned for future updates. 

What I will do is give you my track idea at this point in time. No real specific, again, but once you are east of the low, cold will scream in rapidly and expect snow soon afterwards. This map will change, but right now this is my idea.

[Steve]

3 minutes ago, Steve said:

Latest SWC ideas on the end of week storm. It will be a rapidly, deepening storm. The bitter Arctic air slamming into a moist, subtropical jet will set the stage for low pressure to ”bomb” out over the Ohio Valley. 

The system is crossing into southwestern Canada this evening. As better sampling becomes available, more specifics can be ascertained. If we look at the 12z model suite from Monday afternoon, the storm projected East. In this case, a slightly colder look, earlier than other runs. Will the trend continue?  That is unknown; however, the energy in the Pacific appears a bit weaker. This leads to a little less amplification, or a flatter movement of the storm system.  What this means is a little more south and East projection of the surface low. The problem is 50 miles will mean a great deal. Specifics simply cannot be made, currently.  What can I tell you?

Pretty sure the storm will start out as a period of rain. The latest guidance seems to rush colder air in here faster Thursday evening into Friday morning.  This would imply a changeover to snow, sooner. So earlier changeover means more snow.  

Wind will likely end up being the most noticed issue from this storm. As the surface low rapidly deepens, winds will howl. Sustained winds over 40 mph with gusts to near 60 mph seems likely at the height of the storm.  With the snow, regardless of minor or major, blowing and drifting snow will become an issue. It is with some certainty that areas in the region will experience blizzard conditions. 

Flash freeze conditions come next. Temps in the 30s and 40s will nosedive into the single digits and teens. With the wind, wind chill temps will be below zero.  So be prepared for an abrupt change in air temperature. 

The hardest issue is track. What I am going to do is hazard a guess with track of this system. I truly feel that the cold is still a bit underestimated by models and the blocking over northeast Canada up into Greenland is being underplayed. This is why the 12z model trended east, and believe a bit more east movement is possible. The farther east this tracks, the more areas that could see more snowfall. I will try to zone in tomorrow and Wednesday on specifics, but as I sit here Monday evening, I still do not have that much confidence on what this storm will do. It is the fact that this storm could deepen so rapidly that models are still missing a key piece or two that can greatly alter the outcome of this storm. 

All I can say is stay tuned for future updates. 

What I will do is give you my track idea at this point in time. No real specific, again, but once you are east of the low, cold will scream in rapidly and expect snow soon afterwards. This map will change, but right now this is my idea.

Not saying this will happen… but there is still hope..

[Floydbuster]

Nice write-up, Steve. Everyone here is worried about ramifications on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. 

[Steve]

2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Nice write-up, Steve. Everyone here is worried about ramifications on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. 

Should of posted this…. Not my write up… wish I was that good.. Got it from SWC forecast center… out of Ohio..

[dilly84]

1 hour ago, Steve said:

Not saying this will happen… but there is still hope..

What's swc?

[vespasian70]

9 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

What's swc?

https://swcforecastcenter.com/

[dilly84]

GFS looks a bit further south and east. Bit weaker, but think we have to have it a tad weaker to get better snows here. 

[Gino27]

 

Still very much in the game. Wonder if windshield wiper effect takes this back west tomorrow.

[HighTechEE]

06z GFS & NAM just a bit east of 00Z for Ohio peeps!

Corrected the hour of the run.

[dilly84]

Just now, HighTechEE said:

18z GFS & NAM just a bit east of 00Z for Ohio peeps!

Assume you meant 6z. Weaker system overall, but a tad more snow for ohio. These 12z runs will be interesting today I have a feeling. 

[HighTechEE]

2 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Assume you meant 6z. Weaker system overall, but a tad more snow for ohio. These 12z runs will be interesting today I have a feeling. 

Oh yea duh, thx!

[CoachLB]

[buckeye]

so one of the trends I've seen in the last couple of model runs is for the trough to be less sharp, more broad.    This is good and bad for us.   Good because the cold comes in faster but weaker system.   Hope it's just a glitch otherwise this is a strong arctic frontal passage for all of us.

[vespasian70]

15 minutes ago, buckeye said:

so one of the trends I've seen in the last couple of model runs is for the trough to be less sharp, more broad.    This is good and bad for us.   Good because the cold comes in faster but weaker system.   Hope it's just a glitch otherwise this is a strong arctic frontal passage for all of us.

Just so we don't lose power!

[pondo1000]

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

so one of the trends I've seen in the last couple of model runs is for the trough to be less sharp, more broad.    This is good and bad for us.   Good because the cold comes in faster but weaker system.   Hope it's just a glitch otherwise this is a strong arctic frontal passage for all of us.

It’s looking like frontal passage which is no surprise. Lived here long enough to know that central Ohio does best with a clipper pattern which have been elusive the last several years. Big storms just don’t really occur in these parts. If they do, it’s usually some sort of taint that’s involved or a full fledged sleet storm like last February.

[JayPSU]

Looking like a giant, cold, dry, wind machine here.  I’m done.  Stick a fork in this one.

[pondo1000]

12 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

It’s looking like frontal passage which is no surprise. Lived here long enough to know that central Ohio does best with a clipper pattern which have been elusive the last several years. Big storms just don’t really occur in these parts. If they do, it’s usually some sort of taint that’s involved or a full fledged sleet storm like last February.

I was actually pulling for one of the west/stronger solutions to pan out. It would have been cool to see how such a dynamic storm would have played out, even around here. Now, it’s nothing special for anyone.

[dilly84]

I mean, if the kuchera map is accurate, I'll take it.

[buckeye]

19 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

I was actually pulling for one of the west/stronger solutions to pan out. It would have been cool to see how such a dynamic storm would have played out, even around here. Now, it’s nothing special for anyone.

The gfs actually came in a bit stronger .   Honestly though, I wouldn't even be looking at snowfall maps until later tomorrow.   There are so many nuances with exact track, synoptic changeover time, localized squalls, etc.   Still, if we were staring down the barrel of our usual central OH xmas, (brown and 40 degrees), we'd be begging for something like this.       

Wasn't last year when we had the xmas eve 4 incher?  

[pondo1000]

4 minutes ago, buckeye said:

The gfs actually came in a bit stronger .   Honestly though, I wouldn't even be looking at snowfall maps until later tomorrow.   There are so many nuances with exact track, synoptic changeover time, localized squalls, etc.   Still, if we were staring down the barrel of our usual central OH xmas, (brown and 40 degrees), we'd be begging for something like this.       

Wasn't last year when we had the xmas eve 4 incher?  

That was 2020 & it was so nice. Snowed all night xmas eve & snow showers all day xmas day.

[JayPSU]

36 minutes ago, buckeye said:

The gfs actually came in a bit stronger .   Honestly though, I wouldn't even be looking at snowfall maps until later tomorrow.   There are so many nuances with exact track, synoptic changeover time, localized squalls, etc.   Still, if we were staring down the barrel of our usual central OH xmas, (brown and 40 degrees), we'd be begging for something like this.       

Wasn't last year when we had the xmas eve 4 incher?  

If there wasn’t the chance for power outages, I’d be with you.  But if we get a cold, dry, wind machine which forces me to look for a hotel on Christmas Eve, I’ll be pissed.   I’d rather have 40’s and brown then.

[buckeye]

2 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

If there wasn’t the chance for power outages, I’d be with you.  But if we get a cold, dry, wind machine which forces me to look for a hotel on Christmas Eve, I’ll be pissed.   I’d rather have 40’s and brown then.

I can definitely agree with that.   The wind factor is a big question mark.  A handle on that won't be known until the system is getting underway.

[Gino27]

 

Weaker/progressive trends continue. Not really overly impressive look anymore, but still impactful.