Let’s talk weather!

[Steve]

Just sitting back looking at the models…I’ll just say things look interesting…I try not to get to excited…the older I get(62) I try to save my ❤️when it does happen… only 4 days away… we shall see…we know for sure the cold is coming!

[CoachLB]

wind shear will hurt ratio. i will take what i can get. better than brown and frozen.

[Gino27]

25 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

wind shear will hurt ratio. i will take what i can get. better than brown and frozen.

Even the worst wind shear isn't going to be worse than 10:1. Still hurts our chances of seeing super efficient ratios though.

[HighTechEE]

The 12z GFS today if the most goof balled up mess I think I've ever seen , gives Hocking county a foot of snow (or whatever frozen combination) and north Dayton a lousy 2 inches (and N Indiana/SW Mich 3 1/2 feet!)! 

[jbcmh81]

Looking like more heartbreak for Ohio. Sorry guys. Snow isn't looking like much.  Wind will probably be the main story.

[buckeye]

19 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

Looking like more heartbreak for Ohio. Sorry guys. Snow isn't looking like much.  Wind will probably be the main story.

126 hr gefs…. Not exactly a set in stone track.   Very dynamic system and doubtful exact track is nailed down outside of 72 hrs.  Whatever happens this is a fun one to track.  
  

[Gino27]

32 minutes ago, buckeye said:

126 hr gefs…. Not exactly a set in stone track.   Very dynamic system and doubtful exact track is nailed down outside of 72 hrs.  Whatever happens this is a fun one to track.  
  

GEFS is pretty much exactly what we want to see at this range. Tons of moving parts and climo tells me this can’t go too much further west than overnight euro and gfs had it. 

[jbcmh81]

48 minutes ago, buckeye said:

126 hr gefs…. Not exactly a set in stone track.   Very dynamic system and doubtful exact track is nailed down outside of 72 hrs.  Whatever happens this is a fun one to track.  
  

Maybe other areas will fare better, but history isn't on Central Ohio's side. There has never been a single double-digit snowfall in Columbus for December in recorded history. The biggest Christmas Eve ever was just 2 years ago with 3.4". That's not a great track record for big snows. The month just isn't known for them, and the big storms tend to miss west. Still a few days to track as you said, but trends are looking very typical. Still think the wind is going to be the big story. Even with a few inchest on the wraparound, winds of 50MPH will produce blizzard conditions easily, so definitely a high-impact even even if not nearly what it's going to be further west. 

[jbcmh81]

22 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

GEFS is pretty much exactly what we want to see at this range. Tons of moving parts and climo tells me this can’t go too much further west than overnight euro and gfs had it. 

Climo would support a further west track, though. There's a reason Ohio tends not to get its biggest storms until January or even February. 

[Crowbar]

Still way too far out, but would love a nice Christmas Eve blizzard if for nothing else it will keep my wife’s idiot sister from coming up to visit that day.


.

[Gino27]

11 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

Climo would support a further west track, though. There's a reason Ohio tends not to get its biggest storms until January or even February. 

Well to be fair, climo does not support a storm bombing out over Indianapolis by any means so the result would likely be a bit east. 

Regardless a pretty good hit on euro, although likely overdone. Will be very impactful no matter the outcome.

[Frog Town]

25 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

Climo would support a further west track, though. There's a reason Ohio tends not to get its biggest storms until January or even February. 

Good point, but a counter point is this is NOT a typical pattern we are entering so CLIMO is off the table so to speak.  

[CoachLB]

I think we will see this track SE next couple days.

[Gino27]

9 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

I think we will see this track SE next couple days.

A lot of mets are thinking the same thing. If it trends SE and keeps the same strength...watch out

[buckeye]

typical historic trends and climo are for typical storms....this is not going to be a typical storm.

I don't know whether the current track holds or it goes west or it goes east....nor does anyone else.    I suppose this might be classified as a manitoba mauler??    If fail happens, (meaning getting the snowfall shaft), it won't be because of a warm tongue, it'll be a dryslot that screws someone.    Sure there'll be rain ahead of the storm but models often underestimate how quickly the temps crash with such a dynamic system.   This is not the type of system where we'll be waiting endlessly for sleet and rain to turn to snow,  it'll be rain...bang...snow and wind.   Whether we get 3" or a foot it's going to be a fun one.    The blizzard of 78 only dropped 6 or 7 inches in a very short time and that closed the city for a week and was the deadliest and costliest winterstorm in our history.

Let's not offend mother nature by complaining about dendrite growth due to high winds .    Let's jus get a memorable xmas eve snowstorm that we can tell our grandkids about.   Besides, I have my first grandchild due xmas day!   Going to be a fun week.

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[pondo1000]

4 minutes ago, buckeye said:

typical historic trends and climo are for typical storms....this is not going to be a typical storm.

I don't know whether the current track holds or it goes west or it goes east....nor does anyone else.    I suppose this might be classified as a manitoba mauler??    If fail happens, (meaning getting the snowfall shaft), it won't be because of a warm tongue, it'll be a dryslot that screws someone.    Sure there'll be rain ahead of the storm but models often underestimate how quickly the temps crash with such a dynamic system.   This is not the type of system where we'll be waiting endlessly for sleet and rain to turn to snow,  it'll be rain...bang...snow and wind.   Whether we get 3" or a foot it's going to be a fun one.    The blizzard of 78 only dropped 6 or 7 inches in a very short time and that closed the city for a week and was the deadliest and costliest winterstorm in our history.

Let's not offend mother nature by complaining about dendrite growth due to high winds .    Let's jus get a memorable xmas eve snowstorm that we can tell our grandkids about.   Besides, I have my first grandchild due xmas day!   Going to be a fun week.

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So well said as usual Buck! And congrats on your new arrival coming soon! All the best to the family during such an exciting time!!!

[jbcmh81]

1 minute ago, buckeye said:

typical historic trends and climo are for typical storms....this is not going to be a typical storm.

I don't know whether the current track holds or it goes west or it goes east....nor does anyone else.    I suppose this might be classified as a manitoba mauler??    If fail happens, (meaning getting the snowfall shaft), it won't be because of a warm tongue, it'll be a dryslot that screws someone.    Sure there'll be rain ahead of the storm but models often underestimate how quickly the temps crash with such a dynamic system.   This is not the type of system where we'll be waiting endlessly for sleet and rain to turn to snow,  it'll be rain...bang...snow and wind.   Whether we get 3" or a foot it's going to be a fun one.    The blizzard of 78 only dropped 6 or 7 inches in a very short time and that closed the city for a week and was the deadliest and costliest winterstorm in our history.

Let's not offend mother nature by complaining about dendrite growth due to high winds .    Let's jus get a memorable xmas eve snowstorm that we can tell our grandkids about.   Besides, I have my first grandchild due xmas day!   Going to be a fun week.

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Columbus officially only had 4.4" with the main January 1978 blizzard. It probably seemed like more given there was already snow on the ground and the wind blew it all over the place. Obviously totals were larger the further west you went. But that storm also occurred a month later than this and the low tracked further east than the models currently have this storm. Not being a typical storm pattern or setup doesn't mean climo can necessarily be tossed completely. There can be exceptions even if there has never been an exception before. Definitely rooting for this to be a first.

Here were some local January 25-27, 1978 totals. 

London: 19.0"

Marysville: 8.0"

Newark: 8.0"

Delaware: 5.0"

Columbus: 4.7"

Westerville: 2.0"

Outside Central Ohio

Toledo: 13.3"

Dayton: 12.9"

Mansfield: 12.7"

Findlay: 10.8"

Bellefontaine: 8.3"

Cleveland: 7.5"

Wilmington: 7.0"

Cincinnati: 6.9"

Akron: 4.2"

[dilly84]

Come on guys, let's be optimistic. We are due a whopper.

[buckeye]

22 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

Columbus officially only had 4.4" with the main January 1978 blizzard. It probably seemed like more given there was already snow on the ground and the wind blew it all over the place. Obviously totals were larger the further west you went. But that storm also occurred a month later than this and the low tracked further east than the models currently have this storm. Not being a typical storm pattern or setup doesn't mean climo can necessarily be tossed completely. There can be exceptions even if there has never been an exception before. Definitely rooting for this to be a first.

Here were some local January 25-27, 1978 totals. 

London: 19.0"

Marysville: 8.0"

Newark: 8.0"

Delaware: 5.0"

Columbus: 4.7"

Westerville: 2.0"

Outside Central Ohio

Toledo: 13.3"

Dayton: 12.9"

Mansfield: 12.7"

Findlay: 10.8"

Bellefontaine: 8.3"

Cleveland: 7.5"

Wilmington: 7.0"

Cincinnati: 6.9"

Akron: 4.2"

2” in Westerville?   Seems low.  I don’t recall much snow on the ground left by evening after a day of fog drizzle and mild temps…and any snow that was already on the ground would have turned to glacier when we had the flash freeze and would not have been an issue in blowing and drifting.   So essentially that would mean 2” of fresh snow paralyzed a city for a week and made travel impossible without a snowmobile.   

[jbcmh81]

5 minutes ago, buckeye said:

2” in Westerville?   Seems low.  I don’t recall much snow on the ground left by evening after a day of fog drizzle and mild temps…and any snow that was already on the ground would have turned to glacier when we had the flash freeze and would not have been an issue in blowing and drifting.   So essentially that would mean 2” of fresh snow paralyzed a city for a week and made travel impossible without a snowmobile.   

That's what the records show. Seems Columbus and Franklin County may have been in a dry slot for a lot of the storm, which kind of makes sense given the track. 

[Gino27]

From the synopsis’ I’ve read. They mostly gave up on measuring because the drifting was so bad that there was no accurate way to measure even with averaging. 

[JayPSU]

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

typical historic trends and climo are for typical storms....this is not going to be a typical storm.

I don't know whether the current track holds or it goes west or it goes east....nor does anyone else.    I suppose this might be classified as a manitoba mauler??    If fail happens, (meaning getting the snowfall shaft), it won't be because of a warm tongue, it'll be a dryslot that screws someone.    Sure there'll be rain ahead of the storm but models often underestimate how quickly the temps crash with such a dynamic system.   This is not the type of system where we'll be waiting endlessly for sleet and rain to turn to snow,  it'll be rain...bang...snow and wind.   Whether we get 3" or a foot it's going to be a fun one.    The blizzard of 78 only dropped 6 or 7 inches in a very short time and that closed the city for a week and was the deadliest and costliest winterstorm in our history.

Let's not offend mother nature by complaining about dendrite growth due to high winds .    Let's jus get a memorable xmas eve snowstorm that we can tell our grandkids about.   Besides, I have my first grandchild due xmas day!   Going to be a fun week.

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Congrats, buckeye!!

[vespasian70]

Detroit screw hole on the latest gfs run. The magnetic must be broken.

Nice wrap around snows for many....sceptical if that pans out.

[NEOH]

Tough model trends for those of us in Ohio. Everyone's favorite met LC thinks this goes south and east... 

There are two influencing factors that most of the numerical forecast models are missing. That would be the strong Baffin Island ridging and the energy-laden subtropical jet stream. The lower latitude feature is a boundary that a developing low pressure could realign with. And the Rex signature that is drifting westward from the mouth of the Davis Strait blocks the "into Quebec" route that predictive guidance is suggesting. Plain and simple, it makes sense to go with the scheme that shows a farther south and east track. 

 

[dilly84]

15 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Tough model trends for those of us in Ohio. Everyone's favorite met LC thinks this goes south and east... 

There are two influencing factors that most of the numerical forecast models are missing. That would be the strong Baffin Island ridging and the energy-laden subtropical jet stream. The lower latitude feature is a boundary that a developing low pressure could realign with. And the Rex signature that is drifting westward from the mouth of the Davis Strait blocks the "into Quebec" route that predictive guidance is suggesting. Plain and simple, it makes sense to go with the scheme that shows a farther south and east track. 

 

Well let's hope he's right.

[Crowbar]

19 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Tough model trends for those of us in Ohio. Everyone's favorite met LC thinks this goes south and east... 

There are two influencing factors that most of the numerical forecast models are missing. That would be the strong Baffin Island ridging and the energy-laden subtropical jet stream. The lower latitude feature is a boundary that a developing low pressure could realign with. And the Rex signature that is drifting westward from the mouth of the Davis Strait blocks the "into Quebec" route that predictive guidance is suggesting. Plain and simple, it makes sense to go with the scheme that shows a farther south and east track. 

 

Forgive my ignorance, but this means an Apps runner?  Even I know that means heavy snow here.

[NEOH]

19 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Well let's hope he's right.

Long shot unfortunately. If today's 12z runs stay well west we are likely done. 

[NEOH]

21 minutes ago, Crowbar said:

Forgive my ignorance, but this means an Apps runner?  Even I know that means heavy snow here.

The solution he was forecasting is likely not even close to being correct... 

That would be the 18z GFS series, which develops a surface low pressure over the Carolinas and takes the impulse straight north into the QC Eastern Townships, then into the Laurentian Shield.

As you can tell by the packed isobar configuration on all of the mapped depictions, high winds and piercing chill factors are a given in association with this storm. The freezing air at one point may reach central Mexico. But rain and snow boundaries, and intensities, are not as easy to outline. Because of the lack of surety in the trajectory, even parts of the Mid-Atlantic and New England could see substantial snow. Accumulations of snowfall, along with icing, could reach farther south due to the broad upper low and mesoscale impulses rotating around the core. The 954MB pressure forecast on Saturday morning in QC is probably correct; this system has the word "bombogenesis" written all over it!

[dilly84]

52 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Long shot unfortunately. If today's 12z runs stay well west we are likely done. 

Definitely not done. Even the worst model still gives me 5" of snow. Except the ICON it's been bad from the beginning. That said I wouldn't trust any single run until tomorrow night.

[Gino27]

GFS takes a big jump to the NE. The east trend we are probably rooting for might actually be the worst case scenario if we don't get a favorable axis on the trowel with the low too far north. Then we're limited on our backside potential.