Pittsburgh, PA/Western PA Fall/Winter Discussion 2022-23

[Ahoff]

A lot going on this week across the country.  Peep our area, chance of heavy snow on 12/22, high winds 12/23 with bitter temps.  Keeping fingers crossed. 

[Rd9108]

Gfs is about to show about the best storm we possibly could get here. 

[TimB]

1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

Gfs is about to show about the best storm we possibly could get here. 

Unfortunately, we have to accept that it’ll probably cut further west than that. But it’s fun to look at for the next few hours. Kuchera is up over 30”.

[Bubbler86]

Congrats gang. LOL.  GFS.

[Ahoff]

If we could just be hours from the start vs days.

Could still see corrections east, as we are still quite a while away.  ICON made steps toward the GFS, so maybe they'll all start shifting back east.

But, yeah that GFS run could be the the greatest one we see for a long time.  Verbatim, biggest storm ever for us.

[CoraopolisWx]

9 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Gfs is about to show about the best storm we possibly could get here. 

An Ohio Valley special for sure.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

52 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I'm going to throw out some Christmas optimism.. but let's just imagine if say there is an 80/20 split between GFS and the rest of the models by way of having a weaker piece stretch / break-off and get caught under the block but enough to keep it from cutting way west and this beast bombs and crawls just east of the spine of the apps.

So it was written so it shall be done. 

[jwilson]

Well a bullseye one week out is usually the kiss of death.  Save that run for posterity, though.  It's a dream scenario for Pittsburgh.

I expected the 18Z to waffle more to the other camp and it barely moved.  I guess we'll see what happens at zero hour.  Still too far away to guess.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

4 minutes ago, jwilson said:

Well a bullseye one week out is usually the kiss of death.  Save that run for posterity, though.  It's a dream scenario for Pittsburgh.

I expected the 18Z to waffle more to the other camp and it barely moved.  I guess we'll see what happens at zero hour.  Still too far away to guess.

Yeah, I'll say. We all get crushed vs those sharp SE to NW cutoffs that seems to happen with the bigger storms lately.

It was weaker with the confluence with a tad more energy held back which is a nod towards the CMC / Euro camp. It's not clear whether some sort of meeting in the middle with respect to that happens or if we see an all out whiff / cave to one idea or the other yet.

[Ahoff]

13 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

So it was written so it shall be done. 

If you have that power please use it, lol.

[Ahoff]

12 minutes ago, jwilson said:

Well a bullseye one week out is usually the kiss of death.  Save that run for posterity, though.  It's a dream scenario for Pittsburgh.

I expected the 18Z to waffle more to the other camp and it barely moved.  I guess we'll see what happens at zero hour.  Still too far away to guess.

To be fair we'll probably only be bullseyed this one time, so maybe not a big deal this time, lol.

[Rd9108]

29 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

To be fair we'll probably only be bullseyed this one time, so maybe not a big deal this time, lol.

Still a long way out. We are all waiting for our next 20+ storm but in the mean time a few inches before Christmas would do.

[dj3]

That was predictable. The optimist in me says this won’t be a coastal but maybe won’t be a huge cutter so I think we’re in better shape than I-95

[TimB]

48 minutes ago, jwilson said:

Well a bullseye one week out is usually the kiss of death.  Save that run for posterity, though.  It's a dream scenario for Pittsburgh.

I expected the 18Z to waffle more to the other camp and it barely moved.  I guess we'll see what happens at zero hour.  Still too far away to guess.

I would assume “it happened once on a GFS run” is more than enough to say it’s possible.

[Ahoff]

I just want a couple inches.  If that comes from a massive attic front, fine.

[Ahoff]

TWC point and click is up to 7”-13”.  Most coming Friday.  Hopefully, true.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

5 hours ago, Ahoff said:

If you have that power please use it, lol.

I'll see what I can do.. lol

 

[Rd9108]

I do find it hilarious reading the other forums and them obsessing over every little detail. Meanwhile I just want a little but of snow. Hopefully the 0z runs are good I gotta get some sleep.

[north pgh]

I was traveling today so this is the first I’ve logged on. You can pretty much bet we won’t see 20 inches of snow. Fun tracking though. I’ll take 3-5 now for Christmas. Bring it. 

[Ahoff]

8 hours ago, north pgh said:

I was traveling today so this is the first I’ve logged on. You can pretty much bet we won’t see 20 inches of snow. Fun tracking though. I’ll take 3-5 now for Christmas. Bring it. 

Yeah, what's been fairly consistent is the arctic fronts have been dropping around 3-6".  It's a less desirable outcome, but at least it's snowing.  I'll take it.

[Ahoff]

GFS mean for 00z was pretty high.  Other guidance has trended better.  Could this work out nicely?

[TimB]

GFS becomes the next domino to fall. Absolutely comical. 

[Rd9108]

And there it is the notorious cutter. Once a cutter shows up it never goes away. 

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

Bernie: twitter live coming around 12:30 pm...some clarity, I like the way the 12z GFS is handling vortex across Manitoba and Ontario and therefore the upper low/storm placement. I think 12 ECMWF will look similar and start to move a little further east. Major snowstorm/blizzard likely.

[Ahoff]

This is still too far away to say it's over.  GFS may have moved west, but other guidance was moving back east.  We're in the back and forth phase.  Plus, 00z and 06z GFS weren't bad for us.  One run isn't the end.

Even though the GFS shows 2.1" in Pittsburgh, there are 6" spots all around, that can easily fill in.  Even a good couple inches on the backside is enough for us.

[Gordo74]

I seem to remember we want west at this point historically, but its all house money as long as there is snow on the ground on Christmas. 

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

Just now, Gordo74 said:

I seem to remember we want west at this point historically, but its all house money as long as there is snow on the ground on Christmas. 

True-don’t need 6-10” I’ll even be happy with 2-4 to cost everything a day before Christmas Eve

[Ahoff]

Still tons of time for an eastward correction, and not like it needs to correct all the way to the coast.

[TimB]

I like the “maybe it’ll shift back east” mentality better than the 1/19/19 “we may have lost the storm but at least we’ll get a couple inches on the back end with the Arctic front” mentality.

Not sure the east shift is something we should count on, but getting some snow on the back end that the grass is still poking through is hardly a silver lining.

Edit: Euro has barely any precip on the back end after the changeover. Maybe an inch. That’s probably the most likely scenario, not an advisory level amount.

[dj3]

24 minutes ago, TimB said:

I like the “maybe it’ll shift back east” mentality better than the 1/19/19 “we may have lost the storm but at least we’ll get a couple inches on the back end with the Arctic front” mentality.

Not sure the east shift is something we should count on, but getting some snow on the back end that the grass is still poking through is hardly a silver lining.

Edit: Euro has barely any precip on the back end after the changeover. Maybe an inch. That’s probably the most likely scenario, not an advisory level amount.

Yea that works out almost never with snow on the back end. Christmas a few years ago is the only one that comes to mind recently where there was actually appreciable snow when the front moved through and I believe there was a wave moving along the boundary which helped. I’d bet on brown ground unless this shifts significantly east.