Rd9108 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, Gordo74 said: Anywhere 2"+ with that cold will give a White Christmas. Good enough for me. Meanwhile east coast weenies are losing their minds over the models at 6+ days away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: Meanwhile east coast weenies are losing their minds over the models at 6+ days away. I mean...rain on the coast can be better for us, so...not saying I'm rooting for an I-95 track, but I definitely am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Realistically, what do we think the furthest west the low can go is? Is Harrisburg about the limit for us for no mixing issues generally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 13 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Realistically, what do we think the furthest west the low can go is? Is Harrisburg about the limit for us for no mixing issues generally. Depends on the angle it approaches. If it is negatively tilted and backs into eastern pa on a nw trajectory I doubt we’d mix. The Euro shows something similar to this. Gfs is more progressive and further off shore moving ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, dj3 said: Depends on the angle it approaches. If it is negatively tilted and backs into eastern pa on a nw trajectory I doubt we’d mix. The Euro shows something similar to this. Gfs is more progressive and further off shore moving ne. I guess assuming it's on a s to n or ssw to nne trajectory we should be fine. Flatter would have more uncertainty, but a weaker storm, I'd imagine. I still wouldn't say no to the Euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 17 minutes ago, Ahoff said: I guess assuming it's on a s to n or ssw to nne trajectory we should be fine. Flatter would have more uncertainty, but a weaker storm, I'd imagine. I still wouldn't say no to the Euro solution. Euro Verbatim is pretty good for us. What we don't want is the Euro to show that frontal passage look it was a few days ago.. which the ICON just did lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, dj3 said: Euro Verbatim is pretty good for us. What we don't want is the Euro to show that frontal passage look it was a few days ago.. which the ICON just did lol. Yeah, the ICON is trash though, right? That's what I hear anyway, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Yeah, the ICON is trash though, right? That's what I hear anyway, lol. I think it is viewed as worse than the other models. GFS looks like its gonna be a beatdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, dj3 said: I think it is viewed as worse than the other models. GFS looks like its gonna be a beatdown. Looked like it would be, but the precip shield kind of fell apart on the west side. Those are issues to be figured out later, but that track seems like it should have done more for us, especially being that strong of a storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 CMC has that stupid cutter/Arctic front solution. Spits out a scenario where it’s 0 here and 60 in Philly on Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I know that it’s more complicated than this - but GFS has that “right where we want it” feel a week out. Foot just southeast…feet farther south east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 CMC looks like the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, dj3 said: CMC looks like the ICON. Almost identical. Scary. Maybe an even sharper temp gradient on the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, TimB said: Almost identical. Scary. Maybe an even sharper temp gradient on the ICON. I'm thinking that low that moves through the lakes Monday/Tuesday on the GFS is important in keeping the heights lower out ahead of our storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just for fun, as it will obviously change... Accuweather's point and click puts down 9.4" between Thursday and Friday. Never saw it that high this far out. TWC is 3"-7". Cool with either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 At 12Z, looks like the GFS is all alone. Watch for a waffle at 18Z. The ensembles matching the OP raise an eyebrow, though. Everything else shows a consolidated TPV cruising along an arctic front. Could be Euro's over-amp bias? Maybe, but it has support from the "weaker" models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Ahoff said: Just for fun, as it will obviously change... Accuweather's point and click puts down 9.4" between Thursday and Friday. Never saw it that high this far out. TWC is 3"-7". Cool with either. Compare and contrast TWC with the shitty new Apple weather app. One is very obviously leaning on the GFS and the other is very obviously leaning on the cutter/Arctic front solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, jwilson said: At 12Z, looks like the GFS is all alone. Watch for a waffle at 18Z. The ensembles matching the OP raise an eyebrow, though. Everything else shows a consolidated TPV cruising along an arctic front. Could be Euro's over-amp bias? Maybe, but it has support from the "weaker" models. Yeah, it's dangerous territory now. As long as we get a few inches on that back end it's a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Euro’s gonna be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Don't worry at 18z the GFS will probably jackpot us as it begins to cave to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Not throwing in the towel yet, but if we get rain then bitter and dry after all this hype, it might be the worst let down I've seen yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Ahoff said: Not throwing in the towel yet, but if we get rain then bitter and dry after all this hype, it might be the worst let down I've seen yet. Think we might have to cash in on our one opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 6 days out and people are throwing in the towel. Come on everybody should know better than that. Big changes are gonna happen run to run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, TimB said: Think we might have to cash in on our one opportunity. Check the euro weeklies Looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, TimB said: Think we might have to cash in on our one opportunity. The one they ran for December said it's be below average, and we'll probably at best end up average. Not putting a ton of stock in that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I don't think i have ever seen the flag come out this early. Come on guys. One run of one model. Stay in the game. The fact is that we are 6 days out and have a system in play. Lets watch for a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I know I said I wasn't throwing in the towel, so, not sure who said that? This always sees like the timeframe when the models lose the storm and then some form of 7+ day look comes back around 3-4 days out. Hopefully, that's where we're headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Check the euro weeklies Looks great Where so we see those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: I don't think i have ever seen the flag come out this early. Come on guys. One run of one model. Stay in the game. The fact is that we are 6 days out and have a system in play. Lets watch for a few days I'm going to throw out some Christmas optimism.. but let's just imagine if say there is an 80/20 split between GFS and the rest of the models by way of having a weaker piece stretch / break-off and get caught under the block but enough to keep it from cutting way west and this beast bombs and crawls just east of the spine of the apps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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