Pittsburgh, PA/Western PA Fall/Winter Discussion 2022-23

[Ahoff]

GFS is looking like exactly what we don't want to happen.  But what's that lie they tell, big storms go northwest?

Big shift from previous runs.  We'll see many more iterations soon.

[Rd9108]

Need it to go negative sooner and close off. Still 200 hours out but I still hold firmly that my prediction is this is a coastal.

[dj3]

Yep still a big storm signal but that particular solution would leave us with nothing to show for with the cold front coming through. Northern stream digs so far south that we miss out on even light accumulation and coastal pops too far east. 

[Rd9108]

Unfortunately gefs is south east of the GFS. Still a lot of time but this just feels like an I95 storm.

[Ahoff]

11 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Unfortunately gefs is south east of the GFS. Still a lot of time but this just feels like an I95 storm.

CMC lost the storm I hear.  So...quite the range at this point.  Guess we'll see what the next Euro throws out.

 

GFS mean did increase snowfall around 1"-1.5".  So, that's good.

[dj3]

12 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Unfortunately gefs is south east of the GFS. Still a lot of time but this just feels like an I95 storm.

The snow mean actually looks decent so there must be some solutions with a track more inland than the op. 

[Rd9108]

 

[dj3]

@Rd9108bunch of acceptable hits in there for us.

[Ahoff]

15 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

 

p30 please.

[CoraopolisWx]

P14 looks the most realistic best case scenario. 
Has that classic sharp cutoff to the NW. 

[Ahoff]

23 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said:

P14 looks the most realistic best case scenario. 
Has that classic sharp cutoff to the NW. 

We could take that.

[Ahoff]

Euro has remnants of what it had before, but it gives us a few inches.  I'll take it.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

3 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Need it to go negative sooner and close off. Still 200 hours out but I still hold firmly that my prediction is this is a coastal.

I don't have a real solid feeling one way or the other on this right now. The ridge axis is further east out west and the confluence from the low trapped under the block is stronger and we don't see a clean phase on the 12z runs today so that makes North and East closer to the coast areas favored. Whether we see enough changes in any of those to get a bigger impact storm here or that the trend continues the other way is anyone's guess. 

[Rd9108]

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Euro has remnants of what it had before, but it gives us a few inches.  I'll take it.

Yep honestly give me like 3 or 4 and some snow falling on Christmas and I'd call it a win. Don't need a HECS 

[Ahoff]

3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Yep honestly give me like 3 or 4 and some snow falling on Christmas and I'd call it a win. Don't need a HECS 

Yeah, usually because we are screwed on those anyway.  Plenty of time for the storm to get better for us though, heck there were cutters on the models yesterday, now some are much further east.  Still can find a sweet spot.

[jwilson]

They always say the big ones are sniffed out early.  Jinx city.

Seriously, though, the means on both the GFS and Euro are kind of ridiculous at this range.  It's still too far out to say and we could easily get away from bombogenesis, but the signals are there and have been for days now.  It might come down to which system ends up evolving into a bigger one (23rd or later on the 27th).

[Mailman]

GFS improving. 

[Rd9108]

Fwiw Bernie isn't sold on this being a coastal. He actually thinks it has a better chance of being a borderline cutter which looking at the guidance sounds insane. However he is the expert, that gfs solution is crazy though.

[TimB]

1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

Fwiw Bernie isn't sold on this being a coastal. He actually thinks it has a better chance of being a borderline cutter which looking at the guidance sounds insane. However he is the expert, that gfs solution is crazy though.

Borderline cutter doesn’t sound too bad as long as it doesn’t cut too hard.

[Rd9108]

 

[Rd9108]

The ensembles should have some insane solutions.

[north pgh]

I know it is early for snowfall maps  but what the heck. It is Christmas Time!

Also remember we have a Steelers game on Christmas Eve. 

[Ahoff]

11 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Fwiw Bernie isn't sold on this being a coastal. He actually thinks it has a better chance of being a borderline cutter which looking at the guidance sounds insane. However he is the expert, that gfs solution is crazy though.

Do you think he's considering it a borderline cutter or just running inland meaning like up I-95?  Apparently, other mets are leaning toward an inland solution.

Don't storms kind of travel along the previous snow line, so maybe that zone is where the next low runs up.

[Ahoff]

Experimental CPC risks still looks good for us for snow.  3rd day in a row, gotta be a record for us.

[Rd9108]

1 minute ago, Ahoff said:

Do you think he's considering it a borderline cutter or just running inland meaning like up I-95?  Apparently, other mets are leaning toward an inland solution.

Don't storms kind of travel along the previous snow line, so maybe that zone is where the next low runs up.

I'm not sure he's doing another Twitter live at 730-8 so I may listen and see his thoughts if I remember. He said the models are doing the windshield wiper effect. 

[Ahoff]

5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

I'm not sure he's doing another Twitter live at 730-8 so I may listen and see his thoughts if I remember. He said the models are doing the windshield wiper effect. 

Yeah, we'll be up and down for the next week, lol.  That GFS will do though.

[Rd9108]

This should be fun to track. Honestly seems like the ceiling for this is really huge. Somebodynis gonna get a huge storm the question is where. Idk how good Bernie is but he's still sticking with his west of 95 call. 

[Ahoff]

7 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

This should be fun to track. Honestly seems like the ceiling for this is really huge. Somebodynis gonna get a huge storm the question is where. Idk how good Bernie is but he's still sticking with his west of 95 call. 

Let’s hope he knows his stuff.  A track west of 95, (at least just west) could be massive for us.  You’re right the ceiling is high for someone.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

This should be fun to track. Honestly seems like the ceiling for this is really huge. Somebodynis gonna get a huge storm the question is where. Idk how good Bernie is but he's still sticking with his west of 95 call. 

I agree, could still go down the toilet but most solutions get us some snow. Not being an all or nothing deal takes some of the edge off so tracking is fun. 

 

 

[Gordo74]

Anywhere 2"+ with that cold will give a White Christmas. Good enough for me.