Pittsburgh, PA/Western PA Fall/Winter Discussion 2022-23

[dj3]

I know this map includes sleet but let's remember this for our first actual threat when we have to look at the NAM haha. 

[Rd9108]

NAM is still showing a sleet situation I don't believe it for one second. I guess something to monitor. 

[Ahoff]

The 22nd-23rd looked interesting this morning.  I've turned any attention to that.  Always looking to the distant future for a storm.

[meatwad]

[Rd9108]

3 minutes ago, meatwad said:

Hasn't happened since 93. This won't verify lol.

[Ahoff]

12 minutes ago, meatwad said:

My God!  They know how to play with us.

I would like to see the snow though, just for fun, lol.

 

Edit: I saw it, it's wonderful, lol.  A nice fantasy.

[Ahoff]

4 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Hasn't happened since 93. This won't verify lol.

We're due then!

[Ahoff]

5 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

My God!  They know how to play with us.

I would like to see the snow though, just for fun, lol.

 

Edit: I saw it, it's wonderful, lol.  A nice fantasy.

At one point it has heavy snow falling with temperatures at 13-14 degrees.  That seems off, as temps to the south are in single digits.  But the ratios would be crazy, I imagine.

[Rd9108]

Maybe too early to say but it's looking like the chances of snow on the ground for the 25th are looking better and better. 

[jwilson]

If the Canadian verified (it won't), and we only got a foot of snow from that solution, it might be considered a massive bust, anyway.

Right now it looks like a glorified arctic front on the GFS.  NS dominant and no interaction otherwise.

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, jwilson said:

If the Canadian verified (it won't), and we only got a foot of snow from that solution, it might be considered a massive bust, anyway.

Right now it looks like a glorified arctic front on the GFS.  NS dominant and no interaction otherwise.

If it puts down some snow, we'll take it, lol.

And honestly, I'd take that solution in a heartbeat, the 12z verbatim drops around 5" of snow, then freezes us.

[Rd9108]

Euro finally joins the party and has a late phase bomb. Something to track. 

[dj3]

2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Euro finally joins the party and has a late phase bomb. Something to track. 

Looks way better than yesterday at least. Late phasing miller B probably isn't our wheelhouse but definitely better looking today.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

2 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Maybe too early to say but it's looking like the chances of snow on the ground for the 25th are looking better and better. 

Should be doable even if it's just an inch or so from the arctic front. I'm pretty liberal with my definition of a white Christmas, half inch of snow the day before and cold air will do if that's all we can manage. Beats 40s and brown mud right?

[Ahoff]

More torture is beginning.  The Weather Channel point and click has 7"-9" for the 22nd-23rd storm.

[jwilson]

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

Euro finally joins the party and has a late phase bomb. Something to track. 

Yeah the Euro is in-between the Canadian and the GFS.  Miller Bs are always threading-the-needle for us, but if we can get the primary to come into the CONUS further south that would help.

For example, the CMC has the vort centered over St. Louis on the 22nd.  The GFS has it centered over International Falls, MN.  That's a massive difference.

[Rd9108]

Late phase on the gfs but the northern energy drops a few inches and then the temperatures plummet to single digits on Christmas day. 

[TimB]

Liking the trend toward an extreme cold outbreak sometime during the weekend. Hope it comes with a little snow.

[Ahoff]

Someone on another forum said the setup on the models for 22-23 is similar to 2/9-2/10/10. 
 

We can only hope.

[CoraopolisWx]

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

More torture is beginning.  The Weather Channel point and click has 7"-9" for the 22nd-23rd storm.

 

1 hour ago, jwilson said:

Yeah the Euro is in-between the Canadian and the GFS.  Miller Bs are always threading-the-needle for us, but if we can get the primary to come into the CONUS further south that would help.

For example, the CMC has the vort centered over St. Louis on the 22nd.  The GFS has it centered over International Falls, MN.  That's a massive difference.

Yeah, keep those H5 and H8 vorts south of us, and at least we have a chance

[north pgh]

AT least the cold the cold should be here for Christmas and maybe a little snow on the ground which would be nice. Also maybe a clipper or 2 after Christmas if the Northwest flow continues. Maybe a couple 2-4 inch snows between holidays. Nothing set in stone but I'd rather have that then missing out on rain and ice. 

[Rd9108]

Gfs and cmc both show some snow with the northern stream. Both phase too late for us but overall the 500 looks a lot better.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

00z Euro... if you could hear graphics on the internet it might sound like... JAWS THEME

Really just a matter of timing the phase if the rest of this was accurate. Ridge axis out west is in pretty good spot.

Just doesn't quite get consolidated / phased in time and we just miss. Wouldn't take much change in timing of the shortwaves to get this going sooner. Even with that said its a decent storm on the Euro for us, but northern PA / Upstate NY gets absolutely blasted on this run. My gut says Euro is probably over doing things and still to far out to assume anything is set but as rarely as we get hit with a storm even having some maps to parse for something big isn't that common, imho next to watching the snow fall this is the next most fun part. 

 

[Ahoff]

The GFS runs were bummers, but the Euro is much more interesting, and definitely a solution that I'd take.

[dj3]

12 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

The GFS runs were bummers, but the Euro is much more interesting, and definitely a solution that I'd take.

Progressive GFS bias maybe at play? 

[Ahoff]

17 minutes ago, dj3 said:

Progressive GFS bias maybe at play? 

Maybe.  At this point as long as something puts down a few inches, I think we can all consider that a win.

[Rd9108]

Let's be honest, this will most likely be a coastal storm. However, if we can score a few inches before Christmas I'd say it's a win. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

34 minutes ago, dj3 said:

Progressive GFS bias maybe at play? 

Who knows, GFS used to be somewhat better in some instances with northern stream stuff because that bias played into the fast flow that we usually see. To be honest though the models go through upgrades much more frequently and I haven't kept tabs on what the tendencies are. I thought the Euro went through an upgrade somewhat recently that was going to help its tendency to hold energy back for example so I have no idea whether to consider that when looking at any given output anymore. I'd be curious to hear from a MET or someone with more knowledge what the prevailing opinion is these days.

[TimB]

I’m starting to get the impression that it’s going to be, at best, kinda cold and kinda snowy for a brief period. Probably won’t be particularly memorable 5 years from now in extent or duration of cold or snow.

[jwilson]

The Euro has an over-amplification bias, as well, and that might be playing into its current solution.

The 6Z GFS solution doesn't look quite right.  I'd probably toss both.