Ahoff Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 49 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Looks like every threaded climate site in PBZ's warning area set a new monthly mean maximum high temperature record this month. These high temperatures were on par with what was considered normal under the 1961-1990 means in places like Chattanooga, TN and Oklahoma City in February. I just think we have to come to grips with the fact that western Pennsylvania is not a reliably wintry location anymore. Last Jan-Feb averaged -2.5 colder than normal, with January being over 5 degrees below normal. Jan-Feb 2021 averaged more than 1 degree below average, with February almost 4 below normal. Jan-Feb 2019 averaged less than 1 degree above normal. January -1.3 below average. Jan-Feb 2016 was average. Jan-Feb 2015 was about 8 degrees below normal, with February over 13 below normal and was the fourth coldest month of all time. Jan-Feb 2014 was about 6-7 degrees below average, with both months around 6 degrees below normal. Jan-Feb 2013 was perfectly average. Looks like four below average, two average and 4 above average. Interesting. So, out of the last ten Jan-Feb periods 7 of them topped out at no more than 1 degree above normal for the period. Please stop with the hysterics on climate change. Is it changing? Probably. Is it changing so fast that excellent winters we've had literally within the last decade will no longer exist? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, TimB said: I’d get raked over the coals for saying something like the bolded, as it really is just one year and Jan-Feb was fine last year and the year before, but then I remember all of the horrific, hellish winter months we’ve had in the last 8 years. December 2015, January 2017, February 2017, February 2018, January 2020, December 2021, January 2023, February 2023. That’s an average of one winter month every year that is so far above normal that it’s remarkable. There is not a single month in that period with as negative a departure as any of the above months are positive. Good thing I raked them as well, lol. Also, February 2015 was 13.1 below normal. No month was that positive above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Good thing I raked them as well, lol. Also, February 2015 was 13.1 below normal. No month was that positive above normal. I deliberately excluded months that came before the super Niño permanently ushered in new levels of heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 34 minutes ago, TimB said: I deliberately excluded months that came before the super Niño permanently ushered in new levels of heat. So, you conveniently left out months that contradicted the point you want to make. And haven't we been in a La Nina the past three years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 After a quick look at all the Feb. snow totals, 0.2" should be the new record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 4 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: I just think we have to come to grips with the fact that western Pennsylvania is not a reliably wintry location anymore. I saw this analysis back in October: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 25 minutes ago, donyewest said: I saw this analysis back in October Also saw this analysis showing that the "heat wave season" has increased in Pittsburgh by 40-60 days during period from 1961 through 2021: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 20 minutes ago, donyewest said: Also saw this analysis showing that the "heat wave season" has increased in Pittsburgh by 40-60 days during period from 1961 through 2021: That's all interesting but can't we apply the same "logic" to summer weather that's been applied by many here for winter? The last two summers featured no actual heat waves, so we can say summers aren't reliably summery anymore in Pittsburgh. In fact in the last 7 summers, only 2 had above normal 90 degrees. That directly contradicts that charts you have. See where that sounds stupid? Two down years don't mean anything in the grand scheme. One winter doesn't tell us anything in the grand scheme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 It could always be worse. You don't have to go too far south before you come across places where the mean monthly maximum this month was in the mid or even upper 50s. Clarksburg, WV saw a mean monthly maximum of 57.3F, which was nearly four degrees warmer than the record in 2018 (101 years of data!). There's no way to sugarcoat this. It is getting downright ugly just to our south. I don't think we're too far off from seeing occasional winter months in West Virginia where the mean maximum is 60+. You have to think this is going to push into SW Pennsylvania within the next couple of decades and probably get "superheated" as it descends into the Monongahela and Ohio River Valleys. Maybe we'll be seeing Februarys with 60+ average highs at some point. Clarksburg, WV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 I'm not cherrypicking either. Look at Elkins, and this is at nearly 2000' mind you. 7 out of 125 years saw mean maxima 50+, 4 of them just since 2017. You can see that Super El Nino just completely obliterated the bounds of what was previously possible climatologically. Even 2020 and 2022 were just a bit shy of the 50F mark at Elkins. 50+ mean max months: 1925, 1976 --> starting to speed up here -> 1990 -> *cue This is Fine Dog on Fire Meme* -> 2017 -> all semblance of normalcy obliterated -> 2018, 2019, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Ok, I guess snow was nice while it lasted. Guess we need to all move the LA to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Ahoff said: Two down years don't mean anything in the grand scheme. One winter doesn't tell us anything in the grand scheme. I agree with you and see your point. I was trying to illustrate that the "heatwave season" is, overall, growing in length while the cold season is losing ground at the same time. There's only 365 days in a year and the northern hemisphere has a longer summer than winter (darn our wobble) so that doesn't leave much give...summer is spreading it's legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 hours ago, Ahoff said: That's all interesting but can't we apply the same "logic" to summer weather that's been applied by many here for winter? The last two summers featured no actual heat waves, so we can say summers aren't reliably summery anymore in Pittsburgh. In fact in the last 7 summers, only 2 had above normal 90 degrees. That directly contradicts that charts you have. See where that sounds stupid? Two down years don't mean anything in the grand scheme. One winter doesn't tell us anything in the grand scheme. I wonder if was the fires out west that spread smoke in the upper atmosphere that kept the temperature down, which was quite evident in 2021. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 31 minutes ago, meatwad said: I wonder if was the fires out west that spread smoke in the upper atmosphere that kept the temperature down, which was quite evident in 2021. Everything is warmer there is no cooler anymore. At least that’s what’s been established here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2022, the year without a summer, where all three months were chilly and we didn’t get to 94 in June. In unrelated news, I really hope this mid-March setup produces for us. It looks like a decent signal for a chance at some goods to close out the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, TimB said: 2022, the year without a summer, where all three months were chilly and we didn’t get to 94 in June. It behaved like a el nino summer despite the nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 58 minutes ago, TimB said: 2022, the year without a summer, where all three months were chilly and we didn’t get to 94 in June. In unrelated news, I really hope this mid-March setup produces for us. It looks like a decent signal for a chance at some goods to close out the season. Lol, where was that said. I said there were no heat waves, which is true and the total 90 degree days were below average which is true. A one off 94 degree day isn’t impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Ahoff said: Lol, where was that said. I said there were no heat waves, which is true and the total 90 degree days were below average which is true. A one off 94 degree day isn’t impressive. Yeah I was just joking. I rather enjoyed last summer to be honest. I haven’t forgotten that we managed an ever so slightly below normal 2022 if you look at the entire year. We had to pay for it at some point, and pay for it we did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 12 hours ago, TimB said: Yeah I was just joking. I rather enjoyed last summer to be honest. I haven’t forgotten that we managed an ever so slightly below normal 2022 if you look at the entire year. We had to pay for it at some point, and pay for it we did. We've been really fortunate as well. Cleveland hasn't had an above normal snowfall winter since 2014-2015, and PIT has beaten CLE in 2 of the last 8 years. The averages are basically the same the last 7 full winters (CLE --> 42.4" and PIT --> 40.6"). By contrast, the 1981-2010 normals were 68.1" and 41.9" respectively. The current normals (1991-2020) are 63.8" and 44.1" respectively. Note, negative "deficits" denote positive departure. Pittsburgh has been above normal for snowfall in 3 of the last 8 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: We've been really fortunate as well. Cleveland hasn't had an above normal snowfall winter since 2014-2015, and PIT has beaten CLE in 3 of the last 8 years. Don't know what happened in 2018-2019, when PIT had nearly 60" and CLE less than three feet. The averages are basically the same the last 7 full winters (CLE --> 42.4" and PIT --> 42.2"). By contrast, the 1981-2010 normals were 68.1" and 41.9" respectively. The current normals (1991-2020) are 63.8" and 44.1" respectively. Note, negative "deficits" denote positive departure. Pittsburgh has been above normal for snowfall in 4 of the last 8 winters. I think this table is wrong. The 59.8 belongs to 17-18, not 18-19, which I think was slightly below normal. The ones below it should be shifted down as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 7 minutes ago, TimB said: I think this table is wrong. The 59.8 belongs to 17-18, not 18-19, which I think was slightly below normal. The ones below it should be shifted down as well. Yeah, I caught that after posting and swapped in the proper graphic. But the gist of the comment is correct. PIT has averaged 40.6" over the last 7 winters... and obviously this winter will drop that down some, unless we get a March 1993 Superstorm. 3 of the last 7 winters were above normal. Still have been relatively fortunate compared to some areas, granted I know places like Erie and Buffalo have had some record-breaking lake effect outbreaks over that stretch. And... actually with that correction, PIT has still beaten CLE 3 times in the last 8 years. The correct figure of 36.6" was still higher than the 35.2" at CLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 In other news, the Euro suggests we may have something to keep an eye out for in about 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 And it’s official. 70 again. Earliest in a calendar year we’ve gotten there 4 times. Previous record was March 6th in 1946. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just drained my backyard ice rink. At least I got 3 days to skate in December and half a day in January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Outside for a while today and it felt like summer towards the end. Winter can die now, peacefully I hope, but we'll probably get something now that many have lost interest. Still don't buy long-range cold threats. No reason to based on the winter we've had. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 22 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: In other news, the Euro suggests we may have something to keep an eye out for in about 10 days. Unless this thing starts as a tropical depression, it will end up being a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 hour ago, Ecanem said: Of course, lol. However, long range has been complete shit this season, so we’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Should be a treat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 42 minutes ago, Mailman said: Should be a treat. We've had so many wind advisories this winter. Should have traded my snow shovel in for a fancy kite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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