Rd9108 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Seriously I'm gonna be furious if my flight gets fucked up because of this storm. Uggg. Gfs isn't backing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Will be gone tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 And it’s basically an advisory level event at 6z. I’d still take it. GEFS mean for that event is up close to 6”. Unfortunately it’s an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 And it’s gone on the 12z. Hope yinz enjoyed it while it lasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 On 2/24/2023 at 11:14 AM, TimB said: Point me to a century old record that was broken out west. I’m talking the big ones, like monthly temperature records or total seasonal snowfall records like the ones being broken in the east, not some piddly daily record. Damn, you're hard to please. The headline I heard said century's old records being broken. Whether it's monthly, all time, or daily doesn't mean it isn't cold. I guess it was a piddly -5 on December 23rd here. Not cold enough? What's a good winter going to have to be now -25 air temperature here. Those are high standards. I mean a daily record is a record. It's like saying tying the 70 record Thursday was a piddly record, because it didn't break the 78 monthly record. It's a record and you put a lot of stock in that record last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 hour ago, TimB said: And it’s gone on the 12z. Hope yinz enjoyed it while it lasted. Still has a storm, no way you should expect that exact same evolution 4 times a day 7 days out. Take home is our area is still between the goal posts of operational / ensemble suites for some type of winter weather. I get patience is low given we just went a month with legit nothing. A large area of real estate in the east is hoping this is the storm for them but inevitably there's going to be disappointment somewhere. For now just enjoy the track knowing we are still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, RitualOfTheTrout said: Still has a storm, no way you should expect that exact same evolution 4 times a day 7 days out. Take home is our area is still between the goal posts of operational / ensemble suites for some type of winter weather. I get patience is low given we just went a month with legit nothing. A large area of real estate in the east is hoping this is the storm for them but inevitably there's going to be disappointment somewhere. For now just enjoy the track knowing we are still in the game. Euro brought it back into a decent area and not way south, which was nice to see. Fringes us verbatim but room to improve. As for the “going to be disappointment somewhere,” absolutely I understand that’s the case. But even the worst of winters get us one advisory level event. Think 19-20. We had that high end advisory snow in February. 16-17 had a few low end advisory type events. 15-16, same deal. Even 97-98. It’s been a long time since we have gone an entire winter without even one advisory level event (if ever, I didn’t go back much further). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 EPS looks good for this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 hours ago, Rd9108 said: EPS looks good for this range. Yeah some decent hits on the ENS. 18z GFS a bit better looking than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Yeah some decent hits on the ENS. 18z GFS a bit better looking than 12z. Yep looking like it moved toward the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homie J Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 18z gfs still too north, plently of time left though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 That’s a nasty gradient on the 18z GFS, but good lord, where it maxes out, it maxes out. GEFS mean looks great too, still over 6” for that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Gfs back up north and a Buffalo crusher. Cmc also came north but still south of us. I'm tired and work in the AM so won't be staying up for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 8 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Gfs back up north and a Buffalo crusher. Cmc also came north but still south of us. I'm tired and work in the AM so won't be staying up for the Euro. Euro was good. Bullseye is a bit south but 8-12”+ across the county. Ukie bullseyes us with over a foot. The GFS thing is concerning, however. And honestly, so is the huge NW shift in all of the models over the last 24 hours, even the ones that look great for us, because once that starts it doesn’t usually stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 12z hasn’t been good to us at all. This is going to be the same old story as every god damn storm so far this winter. We just can’t win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Just now, TimB said: 12z hasn’t been good to us at all. This is going to be the same old story as every god damn storm so far this winter. We just can’t win. Right now the GFS is heading to the lakes but Canadian is holding east. Next 24-48 hours will be key. Which will move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, north pgh said: Right now the GFS is heading to the lakes but Canadian is holding east. Next 24-48 hours will be key. Which will move. Ukie is following the bad trend. I think it’s only a matter of time before the Canadian gives it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 27 minutes ago, TimB said: Ukie is following the bad trend. I think it’s only a matter of time before the Canadian gives it up. Both ensembles look really good and the GFS is an extreme outlier. Still a long way out. Gotta see what the Euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: Both ensembles look really good and the GFS is an extreme outlier. Still a long way out. Gotta see what the Euro does. GEFS mean did improve at 12z, but it’s still down from 6”+ yesterday to 4” now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Euro is hanging on by a thread. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 53 minutes ago, TimB said: Euro is hanging on by a thread. Yikes. Shouldn't be surprised by this honestly. Maybe the models correct back, maybe they don't. I thought this was going to follow the seasonal trend and nail Buffalo just like every storm this year. Hard to fight against the seasonal trends/norms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Lol no it's over the gfs wins Enjoy your cold rain everybody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Just now, Rd9108 said: Shouldn't be surprised by this honestly. Maybe the models correct back, maybe they don't. I thought this was going to follow the seasonal trend and nail Buffalo just like every storm this year. Hard to fight against the seasonal trends/norms. At least it's falling apart before much investment. Still worth keeping an eye on for now. I figured NW was a more likely fail given the seasonal track, not sold it's a done deal yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Lol no it's over the gfs wins Enjoy your cold rain everybody Figures, there were a few times this season the GFS was an outlier for a good setup for us and it caved to the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Lol no it's over the gfs wins Enjoy your cold rain everybody Such a stupid, stupid pattern. Every damn storm this winter. Literally every bad winter I’ve looked at so far, back to 1932, has had at least one advisory level event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Well, that pretty much tells us everything that we need to know. We have to hope for a miracle or we’ll continue to be on a collision course with our first winter without an advisory level snowfall for at least 90 years if ever. Even 1918-1919, the winter that (allegedly) had 8.8” of snow for the season, had an advisory level snowfall. So did 1889-1890, which had 11.4” for the season. This really might be the first winter ever without one. Edit: it appears 1930-31 had a max daily snowfall of 2.2”, just like this year. Besides that, all other winter seasons in Pittsburgh have had 2.5” of snowfall on at least one day. So we’re still in line to tie an all time record from a year where measurements were taken in an area that gets less snow than the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 GFS takes low up through Central Ohio and gives big snows to Indiana/Illinois. Canadian transfers to coast and gives us 8-10 inches. I still can’t believe they are still this far apart. On to Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 And it’s gone. What a disaster. Infuriating. Revisiting that “going to be disappointment somewhere in the east” comment, yeah, there’s going to be disappointment in all of the exact same areas that have been disappointed all winter because this thing is taking a similar GOD DAMN F***ING track as every storm we’ve seen all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 48 minutes ago, TimB said: And it’s gone. What a disaster. Infuriating. Revisiting that “going to be disappointment somewhere in the east” comment, yeah, there’s going to be disappointment in all of the exact same areas that have been disappointed all winter because this thing is taking a similar GOD DAMN F***ING track as every storm we’ve seen all winter. You're making it easier to root for rain with this attitude. Gfs pressed the confluence more south at 6z. Other guidance trended worse but I hate the terminology windshield wiper effect but it may happen with this next storm. The current storm actually trended favorably for the east coast. How many times have we seen a storm look amazing 7+ days out and it totally changes. This is no different. Let's let this current storm pass and see if this corrects back east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 56 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: You're making it easier to root for rain with this attitude. Gfs pressed the confluence more south at 6z. Other guidance trended worse but I hate the terminology windshield wiper effect but it may happen with this next storm. The current storm actually trended favorably for the east coast. How many times have we seen a storm look amazing 7+ days out and it totally changes. This is no different. Let's let this current storm pass and see if this corrects back east. Agree. This is a shitty winter, there's really nothing else to it. It's pretty much March at this point, time to fully accept defeat and hope for a better season next year, but hand wringing and freak outs at this point are almost comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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