Pittsburgh, PA/Western PA Fall/Winter Discussion 2022-23

[Burghblizz]

No issues with a 70 degree Feb day as  long as it’s sandwiched into a good winter. Not the case this year obviously 

[TimB]

1 hour ago, Burghblizz said:

No issues with a 70 degree Feb day as  long as it’s sandwiched into a good winter. Not the case this year obviously 

People who were born in 1937 didn’t know what a 70 degree Feb day was until they were 60 because they didn’t exist in that timeframe. But we know, because they happen every few years now.

[snowsux]

On 2/9/2023 at 11:51 PM, Rd9108 said:

That wind is definitely whipping right now keeping me awake.

The next time this happens, try jerking off into a sock.

[Ahoff]

On 2/10/2023 at 4:38 PM, TimB said:

People who were born in 1937 didn’t know what a 70 degree Feb day was until they were 60 because they didn’t exist in that timeframe. But we know, because they happen every few years now.

Meanwhile, our average seasonal snowfall has increased over time, so…there is good things to talk about as well

[TimB]

27 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Meanwhile, our average seasonal snowfall has increased over time, so…there is good things to talk about as well

Just wait until the next 30 year averages, once 92-93 is replaced with 22-23.

[Ahoff]

21 hours ago, TimB said:

Just wait until the next 30 year averages, once 92-93 is replaced with 22-23.

Ok, that’s just the way it goes, but we also have 7-8 more years in this cycle, so you can’t make any claims that the average will drop at this point.  That’s crazy to even consider.  What if next year is a 70” year?  We have no way of knowing.  This is one year.

[north pgh]

Yes it has been a disappointing snow year. But some of us, me included say that I would trade the nickel and dimes for a big storm. Okay let’s bring on a foot storm. We have a month left. That’s all we can hope for. 

[TimB]

2 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Ok, that’s just the way it goes, but we also have 7-8 more years in this cycle, so you can’t make any claims that the average will drop at this point.  That’s crazy to even consider.  What if next year is a 70” year?  We have no way of knowing.  This is one year.

If next year is a 70” year, the averages will continue to drop because it’ll eventually replace 93-94, which had 76.8”, in the climate normals.

[Gordo74]

12 hours ago, TimB said:

If next year is a 70” year, the averages will continue to drop because it’ll eventually replace 93-94, which had 76.8”, in the climate normals.

A whole difference of one third of one percent! The statistical horror! (10% difference of largest year divided by 30 year window).

[TimB]

26 minutes ago, Gordo74 said:

A whole difference of one third of one percent! The statistical horror! (10% difference of largest year divided by 30 year window).

Yeah, I’ll admit it’d be nothing like replacing a 72.1” (92-93) with a potentially sub-20 inch 22-23.

[Gordo74]

45 minutes ago, TimB said:

Yeah, I’ll admit it’d be nothing like replacing a 72.1” (92-93) with a potentially sub-20 inch 22-23.

Still only a difference of 2.5% of the overall average. Would drop a 40” average to 38.4”.

[Ahoff]

14 hours ago, TimB said:

If next year is a 70” year, the averages will continue to drop because it’ll eventually replace 93-94, which had 76.8”, in the climate normals.

What if the next four winters are over 70"?  The downer attitude just isn't necessary at this point when talking about averages that don't change for another 7 years.

There's enough to worry about right now let alone something 7 years from now, Jesus.

[TimB]

11 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

What if the next four winters are over 70"?  The downer attitude just isn't necessary at this point when talking about averages that don't change for another 7 years.

There's enough to worry about right now let alone something 7 years from now, Jesus.

You mean I can’t worry about winters getting less snowy and the train derailment and the Chinese balloons and whether or not Rihanna’s halftime show was suitable for my 4 year old nephew at the same time? Damn.

[donyewest]

4 minutes ago, TimB said:

the train derailment

For real, on that topic, I'm 30mi away ENE "as the crow flies" and am on a well.  I've had an undersink RO system where installing it has been on my todo list for ~5mo (busy, busy) but the charlie foxtrot of a response has forced my hand.  I'm taking time off work to modify our cabinets to install it now.  I know the water table here is highly unlikely to be affected but if the response there is any measurement to how ecological disaster responses are in the area then it is concerning.  I have a Purple Air and PM2.5 did increase (because of the soot from the burn) but VOCs, which Vinyl Chloride is, were luckily within normal readings.

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, TimB said:

You mean I can’t worry about winters getting less snowy and the train derailment and the Chinese balloons and whether or not Rihanna’s halftime show was suitable for my 4 year old nephew at the same time? Damn.

You obviously can, but why worry about winters potentially getting less snowy, because of one season?  Why make yourself worry more when you don't have to?

[north pgh]

I’ll take this year if we get 70 inches of snow 2 out of the next 3 years.

[Rd9108]

If it's not gonna snow might as well be warm. Today's weather felt more like late October than Febuary not to mention the sun was out. 

[TimB]

3 hours ago, north pgh said:

I’ll take this year if we get 70 inches of snow 2 out of the next 3 years.

I guess in that sense, we made some gains last year and the year before so this garbage winter won’t put us too far below the pace.

[TimB]

Looks like 70 degrees is indeed attainable tomorrow. The only year so far where 70 has been reached from two distinct events on or before 2/15 is 1932. There were also 2 days that got to 70 early in 1906, but they were consecutive and so part of the same event.

Snow chances next week or more disappointment? I guess we’ll see.

[donyewest]

Every yellow->red tint is above average in standard deviations.  Column "T" is temperature, "PW" is precipitable water, "Q" is humidity.

[Burghblizz]

28 minutes ago, donyewest said:

Every yellow->red tint is above average in standard deviations.  Column "T" is temperature, "PW" is precipitable water, "Q" is humidity.

Translation: 

warm/wet

dry/cold

Although maybe some hope towards the latter portion. 

[Rd9108]

Ehh maybe a chance at some snow in the coming weeks. I look at the gfs and see the same old low track into central/eastern Ohio so we are fighting against that.

[Rd9108]

Ehh a signal is there for next week

 

[TimB]

18 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Ehh maybe a chance at some snow in the coming weeks. I look at the gfs and see the same old low track into central/eastern Ohio so we are fighting against that.

This is pretty clearly visible on the 0z model runs. We just aren’t going to get a win this winter.

[donyewest]

I know some of ya said a March storm would make up for no winter but I disagree.  I can't be pacified with a late season snow storm with a March sun angle because then it is just work to shovel - it won't stick around at any depth worth having, it'll just become brown, mud snow.

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, donyewest said:

I know some of ya said a March storm would make up for no winter but I disagree.  I can't be pacified with a late season snow storm with a March sun angle because then it is just work to shovel - it won't stick around at any depth worth having, it'll just become brown, mud snow.

Agree.  Winter isn't welcome if it appears in March.  Ready to move on.

[TimB]

I’ve seen enough with the 12z model runs. GFS sends a cutter way out into the Midwest next week with absolutely zero snow here, and the CMC puts one storm north of us and another south of us. It’s over, yet again. How many ways can this winter screw us?

[TheClimateChanger]

On 2/13/2023 at 2:40 PM, Ahoff said:

You obviously can, but why worry about winters potentially getting less snowy, because of one season?  Why make yourself worry more when you don't have to?

I feel like, as we enter into a new climate regime, it's going to be difficult not to see our snowfall decline precipitously. Pittsburgh is just too far south and low elevation to see much snow in a warmer climate. I think most places at similar latitude and altitude see less in the way of snowfall already, and many of our bigger storms are already nailbiters here. So I would expect more of the precipitation from those events to fall as rain.

[TimB]

25 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I feel like, as we enter into a new climate regime, it's going to be difficult not to see our snowfall decline precipitously. Pittsburgh is just too far south and low elevation to see much snow in a warmer climate. I think most places at similar latitude and altitude see less in the way of snowfall already, and many of our bigger storms are already nailbiters here. So I would expect more of the precipitation from those events to fall as rain.

Careful, they don’t want you to talk about that in the regional subforums. 

[TimB]

Also, there are only two times on record that February has recorded an inch or less of snow in Pittsburgh, 1909 with 0.5” and 1884 with 0.6”. We’re at 0.2” so far and if the 12z GFS is right, we have a chance at breaking those records.