Ahoff Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 12z GFS tracks the low pretty perfectly for us. The actual precip depiction looks weird, but that can be worked out later. Hopefully, that low placement is pretty close. GFS, Euro and others have had that low very close or just inland of the coast. Maybe they're on to something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 12z GFS tracks the low pretty perfectly for us. The actual precip depiction looks weird, but that can be worked out later. Hopefully, that low placement is pretty close. GFS, Euro and others have had that low very close or just inland of the coast. Maybe they're on to something?GFS OP finally caved to the Euro, CMC, and the GEFS. Even when the OP run was having a moment the last 24 hours or so the GEFS ensembles never backed down, OP finally playing catch up.Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: GFS OP finally caved to the Euro, CMC, and the GEFS. Even when the OP run was having a moment the last 24 hours or so the GEFS ensembles never backed down, OP finally playing catch up. Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk I don't want to get my hopes up, but a couple inches is at least possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Euro crushes us with around a foot. Don't get too excited yet. We know how these go. I fully expect this to shift back east unless block is weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Euro crushes us with around a foot. Don't get too excited yet. We know how these go. I fully expect this to shift back east unless block is weaker. Yeah, looks great, but we're definitely well within the back and forth period. Maybe come a bit more west before those east corrections start though, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Some real sh*tty trends today. Not surprised overall. Hopefully, something better happens with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Trends aren't great. It's back to a cutter with a very late transfer. Still time but we need to see some positive trends asap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 That 12z GFS looked even worse. But don't worry guys through next Sunday Atlanta gets 2-3". I don't know, maybe we can get some lake snows or something with the cold push after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 2 hours ago, Ahoff said: That 12z GFS looked even worse. But don't worry guys through next Sunday Atlanta gets 2-3". I don't know, maybe we can get some lake snows or something with the cold push after? EC makes it warm again by early next week. This is unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, TimB said: EC makes it warm again by early next week. This is unreal. Yeah, this pattern change feels super fake, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Ahoff said: Yeah, this pattern change feels super fake, lol. Seems to be a pretty strong signal for some good cold around Christmas but a long way to go and probably suppression anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 hour ago, TimB said: Seems to be a pretty strong signal for some good cold around Christmas but a long way to go and probably suppression anyway. Cold and green would be disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 15 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Cold and green would be disappointing. Look up 1983. I’d take something like that. Long and short of it is this happened with no more than 1” on the ground on the front end of the Arctic blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 41 minutes ago, TimB said: Look up 1983. I’d take something like that. Long and short of it is this happened with no more than 1” on the ground on the front end of the Arctic blast. If there were an inch on the ground that's fine. The GFS tries to do something right before Christmas, but that's too far away to expect it to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 It's too early to get heavily invested, but watch that PNA spike around the 22nd/23rd of December. With an already established -EPO and west-based -NAO block, that's the sort of thing that makes the hair on your neck stand up (if you're a winter weather nerd). The only problem being this is an OP, off-hour model run at 250 hours. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, jwilson said: It's too early to get heavily invested, but watch that PNA spike around the 22nd/23rd of December. With an already established -EPO and west-based -NAO block, that's the sort of thing that makes the hair on your neck stand up (if you're a winter weather nerd). The only problem being this is an OP, off-hour model run at 250 hours. lol. Yeah, we’ve seen enough great looking things past 10 days. We know how most of the end up… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Gfs a tick better at 0z. Need this to trend some more or else it's gonna be some cold cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 22 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Gfs a tick better at 0z. Need this to trend some more or else it's gonna be some cold cold rain. I guess I'm still focused on how the pattern develops after this storm. Always a chance but the storm has a lot going against it for us. Looks like essentially a late developing miller b with no real antecedent cold to start off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Some flurries this morning. Might be the most we see through the weekend, lol. I take this as a sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 7 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: I guess I'm still focused on how the pattern develops after this storm. Always a chance but the storm has a lot going against it for us. Looks like essentially a late developing miller b with no real antecedent cold to start off. The next storm is dead. We now turn our focus on what transpires after the storm cuts and brings in the arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 14 hours ago, Ahoff said: If there were an inch on the ground that's fine. The GFS tries to do something right before Christmas, but that's too far away to expect it to happen. Would think if a major Arctic invasion were to actually occur, and it seems to pop up on a number of model runs, it would be ushered in with a small amount of snow. That seems to be fairly typical. Seems like the timing of that would coincide pretty well with Christmas if it did happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 57 minutes ago, TimB said: Would think if a major Arctic invasion were to actually occur, and it seems to pop up on a number of model runs, it would be ushered in with a small amount of snow. That seems to be fairly typical. Seems like the timing of that would coincide pretty well with Christmas if it did happen. One would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Worst thing about the late week storm is the track is nearly perfect for us. If that low tracked all the way up the coast at those positions modeled we'd be blanketed. So, of course when we have a great low placement there's no precip on the back side. Looks like we have to rely on clippers, which can be really nice events. GFS, is liking to dissolve them as they come down though, so there's that, and there's a nice looking possibility at the very end of GFS, but of course that's so far away. Also, the 22-23 storm kind of just went away, for now, lol. Euro cuts the 22nd storm, gets us rain and then immediately bitter cold and no snow. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Worst thing about the late week storm is the track is nearly perfect for us. If that low tracked all the way up the coast at those positions modeled we'd be blanketed. So, of course when we have a great low placement there's no precip on the back side. Looks like we have to rely on clippers, which can be really nice events. GFS, is liking to dissolve them as they come down though, so there's that, and there's a nice looking possibility at the very end of GFS, but of course that's so far away. Also, the 22-23 storm kind of just went away, for now, lol. What do you mean? The NAM jackpots us for that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, TimB said: What do you mean? The NAM jackpots us for that storm. At this point, I'd take it. It's something frozen, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 It's still early but Christmas week looks to be quite stormy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 12z GFS is on some next level sh*t for around Christmas Eve. Obviously too far out to take seriously, but has snow plowing into us then ends as mix, lol, and a massive ice storm before that in the Deep South. Houston drops to 18 degrees. Then a secondary part comes through, as we go above freezing, all while most of Texas is below. Then it drops Lake Charles, LA down to -2! Absolutely wild run, that will probably be totally different on the next one, lol. We get maybe 6-8" out of all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 CPC has strong cold signals for 12/18 and beyond, but...precip signal is suppression. So, looks cold and green. Also, the experimental severe weather risks from the CPC doesn't show any risk of heavy snow anywhere east of the Rockies in a supposedly great period (21st-25th). So, it seems they don't see any real threat at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Can’t make this up, but the weather app from Apple, has the extended forecast for next Wednesday as 31 for a high and thunderstorms, lol . we can’t win. Picture was too big to post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 At this point I’d settle for some lake effect snow showers behind the system Fri/sat but looks like we’ve lost that look as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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