Ahoff Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, donyewest said: Time to make a Spring thread lol (60/40 kidding/serious) Already did. Totally serious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, TimB said: Even when it’s over we’ll still have a permanent southeast ridge. That feature is set in stone for decades. Yeah, I don’t think that’s true. Maybe just check out for this winter and come back ready for next year. I mean if it’s so permanent why have we had recent good winters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Looks like some intense bands / squalls possible tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Ahoff said: Yeah, I don’t think that’s true. Maybe just check out for this winter and come back ready for next year. I mean if it’s so permanent why have we had recent good winters? I’ll believe it when it goes away for more than 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 46 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Looks like some intense bands / squalls possible tomorrow. Yes looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 22 minutes ago, north pgh said: Yes looking forward to it. Maybe some surprises in some localized areas. Idk who remembers the one year in November we had some lake effect squalls and some areas got like 5 or 6 inches because of some heavy bands. Should be a nice a winter day regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Euro seems to give us our chances. A couple inches today, a minor system mid next week, and some weird looking system at the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, TimB said: Euro seems to give us our chances. A couple inches today, a minor system mid next week, and some weird looking system at the end of its run. Yeah I saw that, first time I haven't looked at the 0z models at night. Went to sleep at 1030 and didn't bother to look when we had an accident at 2. Looks like we may get a small dose of winter and might even get a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Yeah I saw that, first time I haven't looked at the 0z models at night. Went to sleep at 1030 and didn't bother to look when we had an accident at 2. Looks like we may get a small dose of winter and might even get a decent event. Hard to take the later one seriously, it’s 9 days away and has positive 500 height anomalies up against well below normal temperatures, so it has mixing in areas with single digit temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 NWS has updated the grids from snow showers to “snow likely” for several hours this afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 13 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Looks like some intense bands / squalls possible tomorrow. Perfect, right when I am flying out of PIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Honestly, the real surprise is that Lake Erie (and even Michigan) aren't frozen over enough at this point. Lake effect usually shuts off through winter because Erie gets too cold to produce lake effect snow bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 10 minutes ago, donyewest said: Honestly, the real surprise is that Lake Erie (and even Michigan) aren't frozen over enough at this point. Lake effect usually shuts off through winter because Erie gets too cold to produce lake effect snow bands. Is it shocking? January has been over 8 degrees above average region wide. Aside from the bitter air around Christmas, which probably caused a bit of ice, it hasn't been sustained enough, I would think. Also, looks like the short range models are underdoing the snow on radar today. Maybe we'll get something to write home about today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 18 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Is it shocking? Should have clarified I meant in more of a rhetorical, "larger picture" sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 28 minutes ago, donyewest said: Should have clarified I meant in more of a rhetorical, "larger picture" sense. You mean the term that’s forbidden (lol) in the regional weather forums here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Just for reference based on the discussion. Current ice vs Average for Lake Erie 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Whole thing has been pretty meh today, despite the lake being wide open. We just can’t get the right parameters for anything to perform this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 11 minutes ago, TimB said: Whole thing has been pretty meh today, despite the lake being wide open. We just can’t get the right parameters for anything to perform this winter. I wasn't expecting much it was nice to just get a wintry feeling day. At my house I got a little under an inch. On to next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 8 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I wasn't expecting much it was nice to just get a wintry feeling day. At my house I got a little under an inch. On to next week Seems elevation dependent. A light grass covering on Washington Rd in Mt Lebanon, but down the road a bit there’s barely anything even on the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Just that kind of winter. If snow continues tonight we’ll probably have better coverage by morning with no light to work against the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 hour ago, CoraopolisWx said: Seems elevation dependent. A light grass covering on Washington Rd in Mt Lebanon, but down the road a bit there’s barely anything even on the grass. It was nice to see snow falling all day for sure. Inability to drop below freezing despite 18 hours of NW flow on January 26th deflated my enthusiasm some and definitely took away from what would have otherwise been a bread and butter winter day. Getting some steady light snow now though and ground whitening up finally so take what you can get this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Storms actually south of us for a change on the GFS. Cmc more amped and actually gives a decent event. We track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Picked up a fresh inch or so after I went to bed last night, must have been a pretty isolated band though because about 5 miles down 28 there wasn't much. Pretty wintry morning, actually had to brush the cars off etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 6 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Storms actually south of us for a change on the GFS. Cmc more amped and actually gives a decent event. We track Looks like GFS and CMC are keying in on slightly different waves or just timing differences but yeah probably not a big storm but I'd love to get a solid 2-4 / 3-6 type event without temperatures issues. It's all about timing of the short waves / strength combined with that PV lobe placement, I'd expect significant changes one way or another over the next few days one way or the other. Given the way this winter has gone especially I'd rather be looking for it to come North than praying nothing changes over the next 5-6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 I went to bed after measuring ~1.25" last night from some of these streamer bands, very dry snow, likely that we topped out around ~1.5" by this AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 It looks like next weeks storm is just south of us. If it comes north we will be in good shape as long as it doesn't end up cutting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Slowly but surely I'm seeing people give up on winter in other regions/forums after this next period. This may just be the year where it just doesn't snow. Obviously we are better off since we don't live near the coast but the long range looks pretty grim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: Slowly but surely I'm seeing people give up on winter in other regions/forums after this next period. This may just be the year where it just doesn't snow. Obviously we are better off since we don't live near the coast but the long range looks pretty grim. IMHO another cause is the rare January torch affecting so many. The past 15 years have had December and February torch’s, but usually January had been pretty dependable as a winter month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 3 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Slowly but surely I'm seeing people give up on winter in other regions/forums after this next period. This may just be the year where it just doesn't snow. Obviously we are better off since we don't live near the coast but the long range looks pretty grim. It's just one of those years. I think people have attempted to over-explain this or over-attribute it to other things, but even places north of us have been getting shafted on the snow. New England included. Meanwhile, it's snowing plenty out west. The pendulum will swing the other way at some point. Maybe not next year but that's not something to predict, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 End of range NAM has a little wave that rolls through and drops a nice band of snow just south of the metro. We've seen these types of waves before so this outcome wouldn't shock me. Regardless it's south of the 12z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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