TheClimateChanger Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 12 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Let's not go here yet, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 Dumbest pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 3 hours ago, TimB said: Dumbest pattern. Yep until the Pacific starts to improve it won't matter how much blocking the NAO and AO gives us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 Looking like we're pushing things back until the big cutter shown on 13/14th moves through. Frustrating wasting the first half of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 13 minutes ago, dj3 said: Looking like we're pushing things back until the big cutter shown on 13/14th moves through. Frustrating wasting the first half of December. Usually how it goes though. If the second half or even last third can make up for it, then I'll be alright with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 Keep in mind, models tend to exaggerate pattern changes, even transient flips. They move too quickly. I said it earlier that the change might be appearing too soon in model land. It's more likely to be a gradual shift with lull days in-between. If we get to the 15th or 20th and the better looks still aren't established under 7 days, then it's probably fair time to wonder if a change will happen at all. Though you still need to see how the indices adjusted in that period. Basically, if the pacific hasn't improved in the last few days (and it hasn't), then the long-term better looks will keep getting pushed back. Really, this is typical for a Nina December (-PNA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 I think I'm writing off December. The ever promised pattern change almost never happens before the new year, and this year likely isn't any different. If we get a few little accumulations here and there great, and if we actually see the pattern flip better still, but I'm not convinced at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Seems as though this is literally an exact repeat of last year. Still a chance that mid December changes if the pacific improves. Who knows maybe a Christmas miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Models definitely improved today. Looking better for cold and maybe some snow the week before Christmas. Fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Something maybe to pay attention to if this happens to trend south. Never know this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Not a great sign when there's been no posts for almost a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 26 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Not a great sign when there's been no posts for almost a day. That happens on our forum when there is a kerfuffle. At least for 8-10 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 46 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Not a great sign when there's been no posts for almost a day. I think we are in a fool me once shame on you full me twice shame on me mode and want to see how things evolve before getting to invested. Global ENS all seem to be agreeing we get a -EPO to start dumping cold into the West / Central US with a -NAO and somewhat less hostile PNA. It will take a cutter or two to drag some of this east but there will be cold close enough to tap. Best part is the changes are evident under the day 7-8 period while models still have reasonable skill. I could see some slop storms with systems trying to cut, hitting the block and redeveloping with this setup. Having that trough around Hawaii usually teleconnects to some ridging in the west and a trough in the east. How long it lasts / what it morphs into is way beyond my skill but if this comes to fruition we should see storms with at least some frozen popping up soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Well, we have a massive -EPO showing up within the 7-10 day range now. I have a friend that lives in Alaska and she got two feet of snow yesterday, and usually downstream that's bad news for us (at present). Obviously, we haven't had much winter weather. But the Alaskan Ridge can change things. Question is whether we can shake that -PNA this month. A big ask, I suppose. Even closer to neutral is better. Very end of Euro (200+ hours) is setting something up, but the GFS looks even a little better maybe. We'll see whether these looks hold into next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 We shall see if something like this comes to fruition but EPS is showing a -EPO, -NAO/AO and the PNA not as positive. Now of course we have seen this how the pattern is slow to change but it seems like guidance is starting to like the idea of it actually happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Yea the pattern is finally moving forward I think we should be in for an active last half of December. Maybe delayed but not denied? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 36 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: What the actual f*ck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ahoff said: What the actual f*ck? Lol it's an 18z run384 hrs out this will change for better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 35 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Lol it's an 18z run384 hrs out this will change for better or worse. But the fact that the entire run has no snow when everything around us does is concerning. I wouldn’t worry about hour 384, it’s every hour leading up that’s concerning, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 48 minutes ago, Ahoff said: But the fact that the entire run has no snow when everything around us does is concerning. I wouldn’t worry about hour 384, it’s every hour leading up that’s concerning, lol. Our chances still look better than they did a day or two ago. But the only run that really gave us a good snow total was the 18z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 0z gfs. Still a long way out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 48 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: 0z gfs. Still a long way out 6z is still a moderate his as well. The trend has been to get the secondary low developing further south so hopefully the euro follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: 0z gfs. Still a long way out The GFS cannot be trusted, lol. From 0" to nearly 20" in one run! Crazy. Through the end of the run if we can manage 5" I'd consider it a success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 That GFS 0z run was epic. Shows the highest end possibility, although super low chance. Up to 3' by the end. 3 storms in one week. Record cold, below zero temps. At least that's better than literally one run previous. GFS 6z looks more reasonable snow wise for us Through next weekend, but with a storm that powerful the precip shield can't be right, looks way too small. Totals, looked pretty normal I guess. Definitely not as great, but showing potential. Euro, still not looking too great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 12z GFS is more interesting for mid week. Shows colder highs and more snow potential. Something to watch I suppose. Drops 3"+ on Wednesday. Good development, we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Miller Bs don't really excite me. With rhat being said we may atleast see some accumulating snow from the northern energy like the 12z shows. I just have a feeling that this will be further east with the bigger snows. Still a lot of time and big changes will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Idk 0z Euro might be best case scenario for us. We maybe need to bite the bullet and accept that east of us will get 20 for us to get 10. Regardless looks like the pattern is finally changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 3 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Idk 0z Euro might be best case scenario for us. We maybe need to bite the bullet and accept that east of us will get 20 for us to get 10. Regardless looks like the pattern is finally changing. I'm fine with 10" even if east gets more. 10" is a ton for us. I'm not fine with east getting 20" and us getting next to nothing, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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