jwilson Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 I really want to buy into that Wednesday threat. I think it makes more sense, because the Sunday/Monday wave could act as a true 50/50, usher in a better cold airmass and perhaps even rotate in some "loose" blocking in southern Canada. But a lot depends on what happens with that first shortwave. It could push the boundary into an ideal spot, or it could move it too far southeast of us and we watch as an ocean storm batters the coast. In this sense, we might actually root for an overamped fail on the first wave to keep the boundary in a better spot on the follow-up. A gulf mover rolling through the TN Valley with an earlier coastal transfer looks better and is a more typical winning signal. It is also harder for a system of that design to gain too much latitude for us. The cold air still isn't great so it wouldn't be overly difficult to see potential mixing problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Really is a pity EURO is bulls-eyeing us a week out. Has worked out for us this year at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 I’d buy what the 18z GFS is selling. Sunday-Monday is a bust but Wednesday is a borderline advisory/warning level event and there’s another storm the following weekend, but that’s way too far out to make any judgments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windycutter Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 7 minutes ago, TimB said: I’d buy what the 18z GFS is selling. Sunday-Monday is a bust but Wednesday is a borderline advisory/warning level event and there’s another storm the following weekend, but that’s way too far out to make any judgments. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 4 hours ago, jwilson said: I really want to buy into that Wednesday threat. I think it makes more sense, because the Sunday/Monday wave could act as a true 50/50, usher in a better cold airmass and perhaps even rotate in some "loose" blocking in southern Canada. But a lot depends on what happens with that first shortwave. It could push the boundary into an ideal spot, or it could move it too far southeast of us and we watch as an ocean storm batters the coast. In this sense, we might actually root for an overamped fail on the first wave to keep the boundary in a better spot on the follow-up. A gulf mover rolling through the TN Valley with an earlier coastal transfer looks better and is a more typical winning signal. It is also harder for a system of that design to gain too much latitude for us. The cold air still isn't great so it wouldn't be overly difficult to see potential mixing problems. We have to see how each wave is going to amplify and track to see placement of the boundary for the next wave. Hard to see much past that other than the general idea, but 18z GFS showed an option where we are more on the winning side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Lol right on cue gfs shows cutter after cutter. Hopefully it's wrong. If the euro and ensembles trend to this then I don't like our chances. Can't win against the current seasonal trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Every single model that ran overnight continues our misery next week and proves that it was silly that we ever hoped for something good. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 7 minutes ago, TimB said: Every single model that ran overnight continues our misery next week and proves that it was silly that we ever hoped for something good. Unreal. Yep woke up and saw the terrible trends. We need to see them reverse or else these next 2 or atleast the first wave is toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 6 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Yep woke up and saw the terrible trends. We need to see them reverse or else these next 2 or atleast the first wave is toast. The ensembles still look kind of acceptable, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 2 minutes ago, TimB said: The ensembles still look kind of acceptable, I guess. They have looked acceptable every time and the OPs always end up verifying. Idk this winter just feels like it's never gonna snow. It is what it is. I just don't want to get blocking in April and we have a miserable month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 31 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: They have looked acceptable every time and the OPs always end up verifying. Idk this winter just feels like it's never gonna snow. It is what it is. I just don't want to get blocking in April and we have a miserable month. March into April will be the entire winter. It just feels like that will happen, and it will be awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homie J Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Is there a shred of reason to be optimistic about anything this winter/spring? The way it’s going it looks like it’s only misery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 NAM at 84 looks alright for the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 January in Pittsburgh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 17 minutes ago, north pgh said: January in Pittsburgh SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 44 minutes ago, north pgh said: January in Pittsburgh Arrrrrrrggggh the mud is driving me nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Sun-Mon is almost workable on the GFS. Wed is a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Normal winter this would be a good event with that low placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Just now, Rd9108 said: Normal winter this would be a good event with that low placement. CMC is even worse. Has the low center on the VA/NC line near the coast, then runs it up the coast and it’s raining in Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 2 minutes ago, TimB said: CMC is even worse. Has the low center on the VA/NC line near the coast, then runs it up the coast and it’s raining in Pittsburgh. Might be time to shut down my weather tabs for the season and stop tracking. Every time something looks good it turns to shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windycutter Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Phasing in mid week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 6 minutes ago, windycutter said: Phasing in mid week Cuts to Chicago now with nothing to stop it. Like I said I might be done this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 CMC looks like it’s going to agree. Once again, it’s over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 We have to take these models and storms one at a time. It’s looking more and more like Sunday may be a surprise with a couple inches of wet snow. just my opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Let’s get some good severe tonight that knocks out the power for several days so we don’t have to look at these progressively more depressing model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homie J Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 13 minutes ago, TimB said: Let’s get some good severe tonight that knocks out the power for several days so we don’t have to look at these progressively more depressing model runs. At this rate, the severe tonight will collapse and split on approach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 17 minutes ago, north pgh said: We have to take these models and storms one at a time. It’s looking more and more like Sunday may be a surprise with a couple inches of wet snow. just my opinion. Usually with a neutral setup we tend to do ok.( non CAD ) Elevation will probably play into the totals though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 hour ago, TimB said: CMC is even worse. Has the low center on the VA/NC line near the coast, then runs it up the coast and it’s raining in Pittsburgh. Should we take the temps verbatim in a case like that. I mean, it is the coldest time of year historically, maybe a low that far south and east brings a little bit colder air in. Doubt it, but maybe there's a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Although it can at times create an unfavorable CAD setup, we tend to do best with a sprawling HP over S. Quebec. On paper these SW flow events should favor us here in W. PA, but they rarely do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 18 hours ago, TimB said: I’d buy what the 18z GFS is selling. Does everyone love the 6z and 18z runs because they show what we want? The most accurate runs are 00z and 12z. 6z and 18z runs are not to be trusted, as in, shouldn't even post them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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