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Pittsburgh, PA/Western PA Fall/Winter Discussion 2022-23


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  On 1/4/2023 at 5:22 PM, north pgh said:

Models show the cold coming back next week. Hopefully it will bring in some storm potentials to break this boring stretch.:ee:

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Yeah, at least a chance starting this weekend. Fast flow though will likely play havoc with modeling so something might pop up in the short range while longer range things will be tougher than usual to nail down. Certainly agree this is boring, hate wasting prime tracking time.

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It's mostly what we'd expect out of a third-year Nina, honestly.

We need this thing to die for one:

gfs_uv250_npac_9.thumb.png.5444608e2a644a374acfcc7c73cf86e4.png

 

It looks to break down towards the middle or end of next week, if models can be believed.  There are coastal signals in that range, but for now it remains a fantasy.  A broad trough might set up over the East, +PNA (or a hybrid) and less zonal look.

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  On 1/5/2023 at 1:05 AM, jwilson said:

It's mostly what we'd expect out of a third-year Nina, honestly.

We need this thing to die for one:

gfs_uv250_npac_9.thumb.png.5444608e2a644a374acfcc7c73cf86e4.png

 

It looks to break down towards the middle or end of next week, if models can be believed.  There are coastal signals in that range, but for now it remains a fantasy.  A broad trough might set up over the East, +PNA (or a hybrid) and less zonal look.

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Yeah, absolutely scouring out the cold. Does look to relax somewhat, really need that low to retrograde west to the Aleutians to get an -epo / +PNA, at least then we could get some continental modified PAC flow. Who knows how long any relax lasts though, might only be 10 days before this base state takes over again. Feb Nina's aren't great going off of climo so who knows. Really hope we can break out of this 3 year Nina into an ElNino for next season. 

Really sucks to see storms with decent tracks still be rain, or even situations we could get a front thump / slop storm just be straight 40s and rain. While not preferred those slop events are at least trackable. 

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  On 1/6/2023 at 12:41 PM, Ahoff said:

Watch that end up as a monster coastal storm and we either get fringed or stay cold and dry.

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The Euro’s depiction is even more frustrating than that. It’s a storm that rolls through the Deep South while we somehow still get into the 40s even with that storm track well south of us. This is getting comical.

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  On 1/6/2023 at 4:31 PM, CoraopolisWx said:

12Z GFS is more interesting, hopefully something to track.

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Maybe not the most believable evolution, but we’re in the game. CMC isn’t horrific either, but it’s more of a rain to minor snowfall event here with a monster storm that drops 2-3 feet in interior SNE. But that bullseye was in VA/NC on the 0z run, so there’s still a lot to be worked out.

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My primary concern with the threat next weekend is a ridge axis that's too far east.  That could theoretically be overcome with a negative-tilt bomb.

The GFS shows a triple stacked low occluded off the coast that retrogrades, but the airmass preceding it is only marginally cold, and it retrogrades so far that it essentially fetches the easterlies off the ocean and warms us up.

We have some of the right pieces in place.  However, we don't have a true block (+NAO) other than that 50/50 which is trying to provide the confluence, and there's not much cold air nearby in Canada.  Maybe some in Ontario/Quebec, but most is confined to the arctic.  We'd want that high pressing down to be closer.

For now, I'd say the coastal locations are in a slightly better spot, because a massive bomb is always less likely than something that's a little more progressive.  But honestly they can lose this because of marginal temperatures and a retreating high.

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  On 1/6/2023 at 5:46 PM, jwilson said:

My primary concern with the threat next weekend is a ridge axis that's too far east.  That could theoretically be overcome with a negative-tilt bomb.

The GFS shows a triple stacked low occluded off the coast that retrogrades, but the airmass preceding it is only marginally cold, and it retrogrades so far that it essentially fetches the easterlies off the ocean and warms us up.

We have some of the right pieces in place.  However, we don't have a true block (+NAO) other than that 50/50 which is trying to provide the confluence, and there's not much cold air nearby in Canada.  Maybe some in Ontario/Quebec, but most is confined to the arctic.  We'd want that high pressing down to be closer.

For now, I'd say the coastal locations are in a slightly better spot, because a massive bomb is always less likely than something that's a little more progressive.  But honestly they can lose this because of marginal temperatures and a retreating high.

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That was my take, the stall \ retrograde would be fun to watch if we had a cold antecedent airmass. Those retrograding situations rarely happen though and your point about the ridge is on point, seeing that I expected this to be much further offshore. Only thing saving it was getting some northern stream phasing going on, but if that's less and the storm is weaker more progressive it probably can't tap what marginal cold is available and it will rain on the coast. Almost a lose lose situation for those guys.

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  On 1/6/2023 at 6:40 PM, RitualOfTheTrout said:

That was my take, the stall \ retrograde would be fun to watch if we had a cold antecedent airmass. Those retrograding situations rarely happen though and your point about the ridge is on point, seeing that I expected this to be much further offshore. Only thing saving it was getting some northern stream phasing going on, but if that's less and the storm is weaker more progressive it probably can't tap what marginal cold is available and it will rain on the coast. Almost a lose lose situation for those guys.

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Exactly, it's a thread-the-needle storm for the coast as of now.  We have a little more wiggle room, I think, because if it did occlude and pull west, or even just go negative tilt, we're slightly closer to the cold air source (as weak as it is) and are less susceptible to ocean influences, in general.  However, we'd probably like to see more cold air either in place or nearby.  The local boundaries can change, but it's unlikely we suddenly find a big pool of cold air to tap.

Of course the Euro shows a cutter which matches seasonal trends, so ya know... 

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  On 1/6/2023 at 11:07 PM, Ahoff said:

NAM gives 2” Monday morning.  Would be a nice birthday surprise for me.

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I guess we shouldn't look past this, marginal cold but it's coming at night so maybe a shot to add some snow to the seasonal total. It's more like a Match snow, hope it hits overnight but will melt quickly the next day.

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  On 1/7/2023 at 3:45 PM, Rd9108 said:

Looks like the next little threat may slide under AGH County. Something to watch as the short range models come in.

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Looks like that trend has continued. I'm actually rooting it just stays dry at this point. Personally I have no use for a slop slush dusting that melts by 9am anyways.

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