Ahoff Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 GFS has a nice looking storm around the 6th. Will change, but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Ahoff said: GFS has a nice looking storm around the 6th. Will change, but something to watch. Seems the big three have all tried to produce something during that time. Would like to see more of a consensus at least by Sun/Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 1 hour ago, CoraopolisWx said: Seems the big three have all tried to produce something during that time. Would like to see more of a consensus at least by Sun/Mon. Some time, then. At least it would suggest it would be colder by then, even if it isn’t snow for us. Maybe 40s at worst hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 It’ll be interesting to see how high temps tomorrow can get. I could see it rivaling next Tuesday for the warmest day of this torch. Sunnier, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 9 hours ago, Ahoff said: Overperformed temperatures today. Gross. Forecast here was 50 Middletown was 52 hia airport showed 56 at one point i live within 3 mins of Middletown and just a min from hia I thought they all got reporting from same area I guess not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 12 hours ago, Ahoff said: GFS has a nice looking storm around the 6th. Will change, but something to watch. 0z models are all basically shutouts. GFS gets above freezing for afternoon highs all 16 days of its run. Euro doesn’t even really have a storm in the late next week time period. CMC pulls it too far west. 6z GFS has a workable solution where we get the fringes of a major mid Atlantic storm. At no point in any 0z ensemble run does our height anomaly get into the blue. Ensemble means for snowfall are pretty much as bad as they can get for a 16 day period in the heart of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 29 minutes ago, TimB said: 0z models are all basically shutouts. GFS gets above freezing for afternoon highs all 16 days of its run. Euro doesn’t even really have a storm in the late next week time period. CMC pulls it too far west. 6z GFS has a workable solution where we get the fringes of a major mid Atlantic storm. At no point in any 0z ensemble run does our height anomaly get into the blue. Ensemble means for snowfall are pretty much as bad as they can get for a 16 day period in the heart of winter. It's one run. They'll shift back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ahoff said: It's one run. They'll shift back and forth. The last part of my post, the part about the ensembles is what I find most disconcerting. As has been mentioned here before, we don’t really need to be all that cold relative to normal in mid January to get a storm, but this is a pretty hostile pattern overall and that part doesn’t seem to be changing anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 34 minutes ago, TimB said: The last part of my post, the part about the ensembles is what I find most disconcerting. As has been mentioned here before, we don’t really need to be all that cold relative to normal in mid January to get a storm, but this is a pretty hostile pattern overall and that part doesn’t seem to be changing anytime soon. We've also seen 16 day periods say we'll get 40" and end up with nearly nothing. I don't think it's anything to worry about right now. Outside 10 days is obviously super unreliable, as we know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 15 hours ago, TimB said: It’ll be interesting to see how high temps tomorrow can get. I could see it rivaling next Tuesday for the warmest day of this torch. Sunnier, too. Pretty spot on. An absolutely perfect day if it weren’t December 30th. 64 at PIT, 66 at AGC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 8 hours ago, TimB said: Pretty spot on. An absolutely perfect day if it weren’t December 30th. 64 at PIT, 66 at AGC. Exactly what I would expect from a late March/early spring day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Ehhh I enjoyed the weather but the mud right now is out of control. My one dog is atleast short hair so it could be worse. Honestly if we aren't gonna get snow let it torch. Cold and dry is awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 My outdoor ice rink still has 4” of ice. That’s how damn cold it was last week lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Happy New Year, hopefully some snow chances soon. We are current 4 inches below average snowfall to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Something could try to happen Friday-ish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 On 12/30/2022 at 11:03 PM, Rd9108 said: Ehhh I enjoyed the weather but the mud right now is out of control. My one dog is atleast short hair so it could be worse. Honestly if we aren't gonna get snow let it torch. Cold and dry is awful. I hear this, we have 3 German shepherds, the mud pain is real. Luckily they are well trained and only need to go out twice a day, but that's still 4*3*2 paws to towel off every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 4 hours ago, Ahoff said: Something could try to happen Friday-ish. Looks like we at least go from zero chance close the blinds to closer to normal with a chance for snow by the end of the week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 3 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Looks like we at least go from zero chance close the blinds to closer to normal with a chance for snow by the end of the week. Yes, the cold air will be coming back so storms could be coming into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Thunderstorms tomorrow morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 1 hour ago, north pgh said: Thunderstorms tomorrow morning? We can hope. Spice up this boring winter a little anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Ehh need some cold air to show up soon or else January is gonna be a dud. Those calls of above average snowfall are already in jeopardy. With that being said we still have some time for some turn around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 14 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Ehh need some cold air to show up soon or else January is gonna be a dud. Those calls of above average snowfall are already in jeopardy. With that being said we still have some time for some turn around. Hard to tell if this is just one of those years we never get the pattern or if it’s one of those years where we do get the pattern then end up with a 1/19/19 redux when we finally do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, TimB said: Hard to tell if this is just one of those years we never get the pattern or if it’s one of those years where we do get the pattern then end up with a 1/19/19 redux when we finally do. Ehh I'll stick to my usual, give me a 12+ storm and I'd I'll be happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: Ehh I'll stick to my usual, give me a 12+ storm and I'd I'll be happy. You’re right. Just one big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 17 hours ago, north pgh said: Thunderstorms tomorrow morning? Maybe a shot at a rumble of thunder. If we can get enough instability for lighting that would be a pretty unusual. Something weather wise to shoot for I guess. In addition to the high moisture content, CAMs are suggesting the nose of very warm air at around 850mb will also result in some modest elevated CAPE with values of 100-200 J/kg. While this isn`t generally considered a large amount of instability, this is quite a bit for the month of January. This instability paired with high moisture content and deep lift will likely yield efficient rain rates with embedded convective segments that may contain lightning/thunder. How rare is lightning in early January? The 1988- 2017 lightning climatology dataset shows only 1 CG strike in Allegheny County in the first week of January for that period. So bottom line... lightning is quite uncommon this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 14 hours ago, TimB said: Hard to tell if this is just one of those years we never get the pattern or if it’s one of those years where we do get the pattern then end up with a 1/19/19 redux when we finally do. Its looking more and more like this season is only going to feature brief interludes of winter sandwiched between shutouts. Going to have to time something within one of those short windows I think. We keep getting "better-ish" looks on longer range but once we get closer in its not really a pattern change and after a few days we revert back to the base state. Would be nice to get a solid 2 week period of winter before January ends though, February Ninas are typically pretty bad. Looks like we have a small window upcoming Friday - Tuesday, maybe a little shortwave passes south of us Saturday night with some light snow. Its marginal temperature wise but its all we got right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 GFS has the weekend system as a nice little sub-advisory level but nonzero snow event. Canadian has, you guessed it, a cutter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Probably close to 2" of the wet stuff down here today. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 2 hours ago, TimB said: GFS has the weekend system as a nice little sub-advisory level but nonzero snow event. Canadian has, you guessed it, a cutter! Just so we have all of our bases covered, Euro has nothing lol. SWPA Snow and the three models, Canadian is to amaped, Euro to weak, but the GFS is juuuuussst right. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Looks like no dice on thunder in the immediate Pittsburgh area today, at least not that I heard, and no dice on a record high. PIT topped out at 60, well short of the record of 65. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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