RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 4 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Merry Christmas everyone. Wish we had a little more snow but atleast there's a covering. Looks like after the little wave next week we torch for a bit. Signs of winter returning early January. Merry Christmas! Enjoy the day, the cold, and the snow. Torch incoming but signs of the flip back as you said. Hopefully by mid week we have a good idea when the next window for snow opens up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: It's going to be close by the looks of it. Some WAA right now, but trade off is it's snowing lightly too. We’re gaining about a degree per hour which should put us right around 12 or 13 by midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 Hard to really say the warmup looks short. Ensemble height anomalies are red basically from Tuesday through the end of their runs. So that’s like two weeks of warmth if it stays that way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 5 hours ago, TimB said: We’re gaining about a degree per hour which should put us right around 12 or 13 by midnight. Looks like 12 was the official high. These arctic air masses are always difficult to gauge as they tend to pay no mind to the typical diurnal temperature regime. Too bad we couldn’t string at least one good radiational cooling night (clear skies, light winds) to see what we could have bottomed out at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 Looks like with yesterdays T of snow they may call it an inch on the ground today. An inch was yesterday’s today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Ahoff said: Looks like with yesterdays T of snow they may call it an inch on the ground today. An inch was yesterday’s today. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 On 12/24/2022 at 10:21 PM, TimB said: We’re gaining about a degree per hour which should put us right around 12 or 13 by midnight. We beat it, official high was 12. Not bad overall, broke some records and had a white Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 On 12/24/2022 at 10:25 PM, TimB said: Hard to really say the warmup looks short. Ensemble height anomalies are red basically from Tuesday through the end of their runs. So that’s like two weeks of warmth if it stays that way. Already a light at the end of the tunnel though on the ENS. If you can see the end of the torch on the models before it starts there are worse places to be. Need to see it stick as we move forward in time but right now I think if in another 5 days it still looks to flip around the Jan 7th-8th period we can have a sigh of relief. No doubt it's going to be a gross mud galore period and is lasting a little longer than I thought it might I was however prepared for Winter to be pretty variable with patterns flipping back and forth throughout the season. I think the fact this cold shot looked to be longer lived and with a few snow chances mixed in when we were on the other side looking ahead doesn't help with the optics of the situation either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 19 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Already a light at the end of the tunnel though on the ENS. If you can see the end of the torch on the models before it starts there are worse places to be. Need to see it stick as we move forward in time but right now I think if in another 5 days it still looks to flip around the Jan 7th-8th period we can have a sigh of relief. No doubt it's going to be a gross mud galore period and is lasting a little longer than I thought it might I was however prepared for Winter to be pretty variable with patterns flipping back and forth throughout the season. I think the fact this cold shot looked to be longer lived and with a few snow chances mixed in when we were on the other side looking ahead doesn't help with the optics of the situation either. A week and a half warm period with signs of life by the first full weekend of the new year would be acceptable. I think that’s pretty much in line with a lot of winters, we’ve been spoiled by two years with no real January torches that are actually pretty common in these parts. Sure, I would have wished the cold period would last more than a few days, but it was an epic cold snap that rivaled some of the greatest December arctic outbreaks ever recorded here. 2nd coldest Christmas Eve/Day period on record. And it probably was enough to clinch a below normal temperature December and, by my calculations, an ever so slightly below normal mean temperature for the entire year of 2022. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 That pacific jet firehose looks to be relaxing which would be a huge step in the right direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 Nice little snow right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 Enough to make the roads terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 21 hours ago, PghPirates27 said: Enough to make the roads terrible. Amazing how temps impacted that. Today is really the first day since last Thursday that the roads havent been bad in at least some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 Random question but where can I find how many times our NWS has issued a blizzard warning. I would assume that 1993 and 1950 would be for sure atleast two times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 While this December was disappointing with snow, it looks like it should be below average temperature wise (which has been rare lately). It will be remember by me as having the coldest December temperatures in my lifetime so far. It was incredibly impressive to see how low the mercury dropped this month. One for the record books for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 A lot of shutouts or near-shutouts for a massive region of the country including us for the next 16 days on the GFS, this one from the 18z run being the most egregious. Euro’s last two runs are showing an almost workable solution with the system later next week after the heat wave, but it’s too warm on all the other models for anything but more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 57 minutes ago, TimB said: A lot of shutouts or near-shutouts for a massive region of the country including us for the next 16 days on the GFS, this one from the 18z run being the most egregious. Euro’s last two runs are showing an almost workable solution with the system later next week after the heat wave, but it’s too warm on all the other models for anything but more rain. Euro was ahead of the curve on the 23rd storm, so...maybe they're better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 All years where the first freezing temperature of the new year was recorded on or after January 3rd. Will be interesting to see how far up this list we rise, but it looks like 2005 and 2006 were the only years since observations at the airport started that the first freeze of a calendar year occurred on or after the 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 17 hours ago, Burghblizz said: Amazing how temps impacted that. Today is really the first day since last Thursday that the roads havent been bad in at least some spots. Yeah, no doubt snow with cold is awesome. I'd take less snow to have it fall in the low 20s and stick around for a couple days, especially this time of year with sun having little impact vs more snow that starts melting with temps rising above freezing before that last flake falls every time. Just my personal preference I guess, I know there are others that could care less about snow once it stops falling. Probably why I'm not as big into late feb and early march snow unless they are biggies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 1 hour ago, TimB said: All years where the first freezing temperature of the new year was recorded on or after January 3rd. Will be interesting to see how far up this list we rise, but it looks like 2005 and 2006 were the only years since observations at the airport started that the first freeze of a calendar year occurred on or after the 4th. Just looking at how the pattern is evolving hard to imagine we don't make it into the top 5. Looks way above average until at least the 7th with no temperatures below freezing. After that it's a crap shoot, but I'm not sold things flip to a good look. Ensembles look to be delaying the flip, although it gets noisy and low skill past day 8-10 anyways and it might just be more of a timing / step down process muddying things. Other thing to note though is by second week of January you don't need anomalously cold air / perfect setup for something to pop up so not trying to spread doom and gloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 5 hours ago, Ahoff said: Euro was ahead of the curve on the 23rd storm, so...maybe they're better. It’s in line with the other models now, a rainy storm that tracks over or just west of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 1 hour ago, TimB said: It’s in line with the other models now, a rainy storm that tracks over or just west of our area. It's unlikely to stay the same for ten days, as we've seen very recently, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 20 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Random question but where can I find how many times our NWS has issued a blizzard warning. I would assume that 1993 and 1950 would be for sure atleast two times. Not sure. The last blizzard warning issued by PBZ was during Hurricane Sandy for the ridge tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 For us it probably was 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 Discusting forecast for late Dec / early Jan.. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As we head into New Year`s weekend and into the next work week,expect a period of unseasonably warm and humid air with a few days of rainfall. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 Overperformed temperatures today. Gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 1 minute ago, Ahoff said: Overperformed temperatures today. Gross. At the same time of day that it was -5 last Friday, it’s now 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Overperformed temperatures today. Gross. At this point bring on the 80s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 To a point, I agree. If it’s going to be warm and disgusting outside, which it is for at least the next week or so, give us as much of that warmth as possible. The record of 65 for Tuesday seems well within reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 3 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: At this point bring on the 80s... umm…no it’s still only December. If it were late February I’d agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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