Pittsburgh, PA/Western PA Fall/Winter Discussion 2022-23

[Ahoff]

Can't be mad at this.

[Rd9108]

New run new outcome. 

 

[Ahoff]

Unfortunate it's still so far away.

[Ahoff]

18z GFS has a heartbreaker for the 12th.

[Rd9108]

And now it's 500 miles west of the 18z. Wow these models are rough. I'm gonna say give it a few days and see what happens. Hopefully we see some sustained cold the week of Christmas.

[TimB]

Ensembles still look good in the day 10-15 range, but yikes to that 6z GFS, it was horrific.

[Rd9108]

11 minutes ago, TimB said:

Ensembles still look good in the day 10-15 range, but yikes to that 6z GFS, it was horrific.

I don't like that we keep pushing back the good pattern every run. Eventually we need to get to the point where we can say it looks good <7 days away. 

[TimB]

36 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

I don't like that we keep pushing back the good pattern every run. Eventually we need to get to the point where we can say it looks good <7 days away. 

As long as mets and people with more technical knowledge than myself say it’s still happening, I’m going to keep the faith. But it’s definitely a test of patience.

[dj3]

It would be nice to see an op run show something other than cutter after cutter despite what the ensembles say. 

[Rd9108]

H5 actually improved, gotta wait and see if it holds and if the surface responds.

[north pgh]

GFS Dec 13-19 the cold air is here. That will be the time for something if it holds.

[dj3]

5 minutes ago, north pgh said:

GFS Dec 13-19 the cold air is here. That will be the time for something if it holds.

Yea much better look from the op this run 

[meatwad]

cpc outlook looks ugly

 

[Ahoff]

3 hours ago, meatwad said:

cpc outlook looks ugly

 

That has gotten terrible looking.  However, it seems they can't decide.  The last week has been from cold to warm to cold, and now back to warm.

[TimB]

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

That has gotten terrible looking.  However, it seems they can't decide.  The last week has been from cold to warm to cold, and now back to warm.

I’d say we’re doing okay. We didn’t get any less snow today when the high was 56 than on Thursday when the high was 33.

[Ahoff]

11 hours ago, TimB said:

I’d say we’re doing okay. We didn’t get any less snow today when the high was 56 than on Thursday when the high was 33.

I'd rather it be 33 and snowless than 56 in December.  At least there's a chance for snow with the former.  No chance at 56.

[Rd9108]

26 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

I'd rather it be 33 and snowless than 56 in December.  At least there's a chance for snow with the former.  No chance at 56.

See I'm the opposite. If it's not gonna snow might as well torch. I can atleast golf when it's in the 50s. Taking my dogs to the park is more enjoyable. If it's 30s and either rain or dry I just don't see the point.

[Rd9108]

Well the surface depiction is obviously a miss but the 18z gfs is showing two snow storms now. So it looks like the pattern is finally developing. 

[blackngoldrules]

See I'm the opposite. If it's not gonna snow might as well torch. I can atleast golf when it's in the 50s. Taking my dogs to the park is more enjoyable. If it's 30s and either rain or dry I just don't see the point.

I feel the same way. Maybe it's my age, but I don't mind mild days in the winter now. They can be a nice break from the cold and I can get outside and do some things. I still want snowstorms like we all do, but if we're not getting them, may as well be mild. Cold and no snow or a cold rain is just annoying to me now. Lol

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[Ahoff]

Ron Smiley showed Thursday to be 66 degrees, however I've seen nothing else corroborate that.  I could see 60, but 66, for right now seems extreme.  Not sure where he got that. 

 

Also, as a side note I saw Ron Smiley at the gym last week, lol.

[TimB]

4 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Ron Smiley showed Thursday to be 66 degrees, however I've seen nothing else corroborate that.  I could see 60, but 66, for right now seems extreme.  Not sure where he got that. 

 

Also, as a side note I saw Ron Smiley at the gym last week, lol.

GFS is quite ugly with the amount of warmth on Thursday and even it has never spit out 60s, only upper 50s. Everything else suggests 40s/low 50s. Not sure where Ron is getting 66 from. Maybe you could ask him if you see him between now and then.

[dj3]

The GFS continues to drop the trough out west run after run. 

[Ahoff]

GFS is on its own though, correct?  Hopefully it truly is on its own island.

[dj3]

16 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

GFS is on its own though, correct?  Hopefully it truly is on its own island.

The Euro and CMC look better but both still a bit too warm for us. 

[Rd9108]

Honestly this is looking like more and more of a bust. The pacific is just not cooperating and flooding the area with warm air. Any cold air that comes in isn't even arctic in nature. Still time so who knows.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

20 hours ago, dj3 said:

The GFS continues to drop the trough out west run after run. 

Yeah, I think we are seeing some solid evidence of Jwilson's statement earlier saying some sort of +PNA is the most important metric being correct, at least for early season. You can have the biggest -NAO but if there is zonal flow off the pacific you just block in mediocre airmass. Some of those earlier looks with the PV lobe blocked under the -NAO and the solid +PNA had me worried about suppression and had that verified verbatim we probably would have saw a few storms to far South, but the look has degraded so much aside for some -NAO we are hardly looking at the same pattern now. Definitely need some pacific help but seems we keep seeing that get pushed out. Further we get into the season the more our odds increase for some fluke event. Even if we can manage to get some -EPO to dump cold out west we can get a transient cold shot behind a storm and maybe time something up. 

[Ahoff]

GFS seems to be colder for this weekend's event.  Still not what we want to see exactly, but a massive improvement.  The after is an absolute cluster.

Euro looks like trash.

The Canadian is the only thing wanting give us any shot, but that's a front end snow and at the end of the run.

 

These runs look worse than before.  All the chatter of a pattern change seems like bull.

[TimB]

Even in Christmas week, which is allegedly our better shot, the ensembles look like this. Don’t shoot the messenger.

 

Even if this is delayed but not denied, our window is looking shorter and shorter. But that’s just December in the modern era.

[Ahoff]

12 minutes ago, TimB said:

Even in Christmas week, which is allegedly our better shot, the ensembles look like this. Don’t shoot the messenger.

 

Even if this is delayed but not denied, our window is looking shorter and shorter. But that’s just December in the modern era.

I don't understand how people are saying there's a great pattern coming, but literally nothing seems to actually show it?  I'd like to be optimistic, but it doesn't look good even after 10 days.

[TheClimateChanger]

Very La Nina-ish. Looks like January 1950, with the crazy amounts of rainfall. Warm temperatures in the east, with cold and snow locked in the west and upper Midwest.