TimB Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 10 hours ago, Ahoff said: Hopefully, we can get below 0. Would be the first time in December since, what 1989? It will be tough to do, but we’ll be getting close. 1989 is correct. Closest we’ve come since then is a low of 0 on 12/31/17. I think there was also a day in 2004 with a low of 0. I’m wondering honestly if our best shot is midday tomorrow immediately behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Nws has us about 1-2. Hey maybe we get 3 and everybody is happy! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Definitely less moisture behind the front on the morning models. We'll see but the problem is there's really only a 1-2 hr window for snow now and not as much moisture in that window either. It does seem the precip type panels are underestimating how quickly the changeover will take place, but this kinda ends up as a wash due to melting at those temps. I think .1" QPF is a pretty reasonable bet. Which we can't assume will be much more than 10:1 ratios. The HRRR does seem to have some banding features which may yield some more localized totals. For that reason I would go with .5-1.5" with localized 2"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Looks like the NWS thinks the rain changes to snow between 4-6 AM. Unfortunately I'm working tonight so my drive in the morning might be horrendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Wouldn't there be upslope snows? I mean whether the winds come from the southwest or northwest it should run into higher terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: Nws has us about 1-2. Hey maybe we get 3 and everybody is happy! Dropped us to under an inch, lol. I don't think it gets to even 1 degree, which is their forecast without more snow on the ground, and if it does, I couldn't imagine how cold it would have been with a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 11 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Dropped us to under an inch, lol. I don't think it gets to even 1 degree, which is their forecast without more snow on the ground, and if it does, I couldn't imagine how cold it would have been with a couple inches. Every model I'm seeing has us at around 1.5 inches on average. I bet we get an inch but it gets blown around. I guess we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 12z GFS is probably on something but it pounds us with a heavy burst of snow with the front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Every model I'm seeing has us at around 1.5 inches on average. I bet we get an inch but it gets blown around. I guess we shall see. Hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Also, HRRR seems aggressive with temps. -6 (a record low) by tomorrow night, and dipping to -7 Christmas Eve (not a record). With so little snow, I doubt that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1101 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022 ...WINTER STORM TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING COLD....STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...AND WINTER PRECIPITATION... PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073-075-WVZ001>004-012-021-509- 230015- /O.UPG.KPBZ.WC.A.0001.221223T1100Z-221224T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KPBZ.WC.W.0001.221223T1100Z-221224T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0020.221223T0600Z-221223T1800Z/ Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver- Allegheny-Armstrong-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Fayette- Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia- Including the cities of Brookville, Monessen, Sharon, Uniontown, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Ford City, Punxsutawney, Grove City, Ellwood City, Clarion, Washington, Oil City, Wheeling, Murrysville, Hermitage, Aliquippa, Follansbee, Lower Burrell, Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Kittanning, Wellsburg, Fairmont, Weirton, New Martinsville, Butler, Waynesburg, Morgantown, New Castle, Latrobe, Monaca, Franklin, New Kensington, Tionesta, Greensburg, Moundsville, and Canonsburg 1101 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... ...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO NOON EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to two inches, with flash freeze conditions possible. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. For the Wind Chill Warning, dangerously cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 25 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of northwest, southwest, and western Pennsylvania. Portions of northern and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Friday. For the Wind Chill Warning, from 6 AM Friday to Noon EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves. Keep pets indoors as much as possible. Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury. && $$ Wind Chill Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1101 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022 ...WINTER STORM TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING COLD....STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...AND WINTER PRECIPITATION... PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073-075-WVZ001>004-012-021-509- 230015- /O.UPG.KPBZ.WC.A.0001.221223T1100Z-221224T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KPBZ.WC.W.0001.221223T1100Z-221224T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0020.221223T0600Z-221223T1800Z/ Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver- Allegheny-Armstrong-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Fayette- Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia- Including the cities of Brookville, Monessen, Sharon, Uniontown, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Ford City, Punxsutawney, Grove City, Ellwood City, Clarion, Washington, Oil City, Wheeling, Murrysville, Hermitage, Aliquippa, Follansbee, Lower Burrell, Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Kittanning, Wellsburg, Fairmont, Weirton, New Martinsville, Butler, Waynesburg, Morgantown, New Castle, Latrobe, Monaca, Franklin, New Kensington, Tionesta, Greensburg, Moundsville, and Canonsburg 1101 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... ...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO NOON EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to two inches, with flash freeze conditions possible. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. For the Wind Chill Warning, dangerously cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 25 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of northwest, southwest, and western Pennsylvania. Portions of northern and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Friday. For the Wind Chill Warning, from 6 AM Friday to Noon EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves. Keep pets indoors as much as possible. Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Unfortunately, these vorts tend to not dig into the TN Valley as much as we would like. Too bad, because the phasing with that coastal energy would have been epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 I'm guessing our final snow total will depend on how fast the front comes through? I read out west the front came in earlier than modeled. I don't know if that means anything for us downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Wind Advisory URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1104 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022 OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029- 031-073-075-WVZ001>004-012-021-509-230015- /O.UPG.KPBZ.HW.A.0001.221223T0800Z-221224T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KPBZ.WI.Y.0012.221223T0600Z-221224T1200Z/ Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH- Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest- Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong- Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Fayette-Hancock-Brooke- Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia- Including the cities of Brookville, Monessen, New Philadelphia, Columbiana, Malvern, Zanesville, Sharon, East Liverpool, Uniontown, Woodsfield, Punxsutawney, Grove City, Salem, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Ford City, Ellwood City, Clarion, Washington, Oil City, Wheeling, Murrysville, Hermitage, Aliquippa, Follansbee, Lower Burrell, Dover, Coshocton, Cadiz, Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Kittanning, Cambridge, Wellsburg, Fairmont, Weirton, St. Clairsville, New Martinsville, Caldwell, Butler, Waynesburg, Morgantown, Carrollton, New Castle, Martins Ferry, Indiana, Latrobe, Steubenville, Monaca, Franklin, New Kensington, Tionesta, Greensburg, Moundsville, and Canonsburg 1104 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of east central Ohio. Portions of northwest, southwest, and western Pennsylvania. Portions of northern and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ SH/FM/EB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 43 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Also, HRRR seems aggressive with temps. -6 (a record low) by tomorrow night, and dipping to -7 Christmas Eve (not a record). With so little snow, I doubt that. HRRR likes to do that. Watch for that to moderate on subsequent runs. But it has stuck around for several of its long range runs now, so who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Ahoff said: Wouldn't there be upslope snows? I mean whether the winds come from the southwest or northwest it should run into higher terrain. Maybe in the very higher elevations, but not really for us in the low lands. That air is bone dry continental Arctic air. The lakes add a source of moisture when we get NW go flow but also moderate the air mass, so colder temperatures than one might expect are possible despite the lack of snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 hour ago, CoraopolisWx said: Unfortunately, these vorts tend to not dig into the TN Valley as much as we would like. Too bad, because the phasing with that coastal energy would have been epic. I kept waiting to see a phase, it was close a few times but just didn't have a deep enough trough to scoop it up. No doubt that would have been an even more prolific synoptic snow maker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Maybe in the very higher elevations, but not really for us in the low lands. That air is bone dry continental Arctic air. The lakes add a source of moisture when we get NW go flow but also moderate the air mass, so colder temperatures than one might expect are possible despite the lack of snow cover. So you would say these subzero afternoon/evening temps the coldest models are suggesting aren’t out of the question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Where do they get 70 mph but the separate wind advisory product says gusts to 50? Is this a mistake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Just now, TimB said: Where do they get 70 mph but the separate wind advisory product says gusts to 50? Is this a mistake? That seems it sound be for the ridges possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Hmm everywhere out west is saying the front is faster than modeled so far. Ill be curious to see what happens. Should be a rough morning commute regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 HRRR continues to suggest mid negative single digits tomorrow afternoon on its 18z run. I would say most 12z guidance trended a degree or two colder than previous runs. Could we see a probably almost unheard of subzero afternoon in December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 58 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Hmm everywhere out west is saying the front is faster than modeled so far. Ill be curious to see what happens. Should be a rough morning commute regardless. Hopefully it changes rain to snow a bit quicker and maybe longer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 NWS back up to 1-2" of snow. Positive trend in the 11th hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 12 minutes ago, Ahoff said: NWS back up to 1-2" of snow. Positive trend in the 11th hour. They added the “heavy at times” wording to the morning rush. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 12 minutes ago, TimB said: They added the “heavy at times” wording to the morning rush. Maybe the quicker cold air is helping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 All I know is I have to be at work tomorrow at 8 and want to die already. I don’t think the timing could be any worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 19 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Well let’s hope this is right because TWC still has me at 1”…..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Euro upping totals late. Where’d that come from. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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